Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[Spikecollie]

For once I'm looking forward to some Pennine storms. I don't have to go anywhere, I'll just take myself and dog to the top of the Moor and watch them coming in...and then run down just in time me thinks!

[Ben Sainsbury]

GFS 12z looking very interesting again, widespread 30'c evident for Wednesday following a similar area of interest for instability. Thursday doesn't neccesarily seem as cool now, which then on Friday seems to help the heat build again issuing widespread 30'c across England with instability sitting maybe slightly eastwards but little change, then even by Saturday the heat doesn't want to escape the UK showing tops of 32-33'c in East Anglia!

Edited June 29, 2015 by Ben Sainsbury

[William Grimsley]

GFS 12z looking very interesting again, widespread 30'c evident for Wednesday following a similar area of interest for instability. Thursday doesn't neccesarily seem as cool now, which then on Friday seems to help the heat build again issuing widespread 30'c across England with instability sitting maybe slightly eastwards but little change, then even by Saturday the heat doesn't want to escape the UK showing tops of 32-33'c in East Anglia!

Come on, Ben! Let's hope we can get some corkers tomorrow night!

[Mapantz]

Yes you're right, they've not much height to them. Just rolled in now after a very warm afternoon.

Nice though.

There's been some outstanding Cirrus and Altocumulus here, over the past three or four days.

Edited June 29, 2015 by Mapantz

[Mapantz]

The GFS indicative of the FAX, showery outbreaks developing along that trough on Wednesday..

 

 

 

[Stuart]

could see a thunderstorm tommorw evening

Edited June 29, 2015 by Stuart

[The PIT]

Interesting are any areas forecast to get storms as nothing seems to be mentioned very much

[Utahraptor]

I hope that trough will trigger a few thunderstorms for NI... MLCAPE values seem very high on the NMM12 where I am, but I am a bit skeptical of that

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Think the main focus Wednesday will be in the West and some central parts.

If say we get a storm that roots beneath the boundary layer and potentially becomes a right mover, then it could be quite severe. Wednesday afternoon I wouldn't rule that out.

[Weather-history]

I wonder if this Wednesday will go like the way 1st August 1999 went?

Edited June 29, 2015 by Weather-history

[legritter]

Chance for my area tomorrow evening according to netweather storm risk , and again friday afternoon/evening.

Yes you could be in a prime position ,same as me here but usual possibilitys of someone else getting the jam ,will be nice sat out tomorrow night if the dice falls right ,i love it when you see those night time flickers late evening knowing you have about 5/6 hours for a light show ,best of luck to all .cheers .

[Harry]

I wonder if this Wednesday will go like the way 1st August 1999 went?

That's possibly not a bad shout.

[Chris.R]

I wonder if this Wednesday will go like the way 1st August 1999 went?

I was a little bit too young to remember detail that far back, although I do remember a big storm during one of the summers of the late 90s but I can't remember which. The only storm that stands out in my Childhood is the July 2001 epic discussed yesterday. Edited June 29, 2015 by Chris R

[Darren Bown]

I wonder if this Wednesday will go like the way 1st August 1999 went?

Looks to be similar areas as what is forecast for Wednesday to be honest

[ancientsolar]

Just need to say.. we should keep an eye for any developments over Spain tonight.. Once the storms start to arrive there.. they should start pushing their way up towards UK over the next 24 hours!

[sn0wman]

I wonder if this Wednesday will go like the way 1st August 1999 went?

Definitely a very good analog. So excited for Wednesday to be honest. Even if there aren't any storms in my area, it will be really interesting seeing last-minute model predictions and doing loads of radar-watching

[ancientsolar]

Well, looks like the first thunderstorm is developing over the mountains in NW Spain.. will be interesting to see how this develops over the next few hours and if more will develop.
By tomorrow.. We should have some spectacular displays over France!! As those storms (hopefully) work their way towards us.

[ANYWEATHER]

Definitely a very good analog. So excited for Wednesday to be honest. Even if there aren't any storms in my area, it will be really interesting seeing last-minute model predictions and doing loads of radar-watching

Hi and thanks for sharing that. Good to see my home town of Evesham on the national forecast way back then.

[snowwonder]

May go fishing this week but not sure when storms are predicted for north home counties? Wed? Fri?

Any ideas please would be appreciated.

Thx

[Methuselah]

May go fishing this week but not sure when storms are predicted for north home counties? Wed? Fri?

Any ideas please would be appreciated.

Thx

According to the Beeb, Wednesday night through Thursday morning looks favourite.

[snowwonder]

According to the Beeb, Wednesday night through Thursday morning looks favourite.

Thank you

Thursday it is then

[jessandjon]

My lights are flickering a had a lone lightning flash!!! :-)

[DAVID SNOW]

My lights are flickering a had a lone lightning flash!!! :-)

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I'm gonna be working in Gerrard's Cross on weds morning at about 9am.

Tomorrow night got dinner plans til probably 9pm in Guildford and then I'm free to roam.

Was thinking of packing up the van and heading across on the M4 to Swindon area and basically sleeping in the van if there is enough action to stay out for.

Does this sound like a winning idea or should I just stay put and wait til Friday?

Not sure how Far East these storms will reach tomorrow - is Hampshire in with a shout?

[shaky]

can anyone post any nmm charts!!!!are they still looking pretty tasty for storms?