Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

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Import galore

[Harry]

I shouldn't think we'll be hugely import reliant if the charts come to fruition (or even if the values are downgraded).

[William Grimsley]

I shouldn't think we'll be hugely import reliant if the charts come to fruition (or even if the values are downgraded).

Hmm yeah, I'm certainly slightly reliant on imports from NW France and the low to the SW moving in, home growns here are a no no. 

[Stormyking]

Interesting week to come by the looks of it, though still a lot of uncertainty in where about's any storms will be if any that is... Thing with these set ups im kinda getting the vibe where there will be quite a lot of heat, i honestly feel the charts will struggle to pick some storms, as they could potentially be quite dry storms, where they develop really high up in the atmosphere. Im only going by this because the first wave of heat looks like a dry type of heat, so any storms will be very elevated. Correct me if im wrong, but this is just my opinion

[Cheshire Freeze]

We have to remember that although the CAPE charts look pretty, a fraction of that will actually be realised in as much as it's only really potential if the capping can be broken. Saying that, given such values, should the cap be broken such values wouldn't preclude the risk of some severe weather in places.

 

I've seen many a 'loaded gun' scenario where CAPE levels were through the roof but in reality there was nothing to break the capping and so we saw no storms.

Edited June 28, 2015 by CreweCold

[William Grimsley]

Interesting week to come by the looks of it, though still a lot of uncertainty in where about's any storms will be if any that is... Thing with these set ups im kinda getting the vibe where there will be quite a lot of heat, i honestly feel the charts will struggle to pick some storms, as they could potentially be quite dry storms, where they develop really high up in the atmosphere. Im only going by this because the first wave of heat looks like a dry type of heat, so any storms will be very elevated. Correct me if im wrong, but this is just my opinion

Exactly, hence I feel that coastal areas might be at a better vantage point, IMO. However, I think the heat is gauranteed everywhere and we've just got to wait and see with these thunderstorms now as the models are pretty much worthless now.

[Mapantz]

Showers? Wha? Hang on, skew-t doesn't just tell the whole story. Have you checked the NetWx-MR chart, probably you are too far east for any action this time!

 

I refer you this post: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83332-storm-convective-discussion-12th-june-2015-onwards/?p=3219540

I want to watch Countryfile next week, so i don't want you suing the BBC if nothing comes to fruition! 

Edited June 28, 2015 by Mapantz

[Lauren]

Has been clouded over all day with a few showers of light rain. It is humid though. Quite different from the 20C and clear skies with sun which was forecast,

[sunnijim]

Interesting potential,i remember during the long hot summer of 2003 a couple of vicious 'dry storms' that developed during a hot and humid morning with blue sky,patches of cumulo bubbled up as a relativly weak disturbance moved through.

Shotgun thunder overhead and damaging lightning strikes reported in Brighton and Hastings,the day then continued as a blue sky,hot day!

[William Grimsley]

I refer you this post: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83332-storm-convective-discussion-12th-june-2015-onwards/?p=3219540

I want to watch Countryfile next week, so i don't want you suing the BBC if nothing comes to fruition! 

Next week? Well, I doubt next week's forecast will be any use for this week?   Anyway, yeah the charts shouldn't be used as a definite answer and we should just wait and see what happens now, they're only a guide anyway.

Edited June 28, 2015 by William Grimsley

[claret047]

I'm looking forward to this week now....heat and storms...bliss!

 

I'll be down in Eastbourne tues-fri camping with the wifey and kids....picture the scene, thursday night, kids asleep, and there's me with a large rum and coke in one hand, cigarette in the other, watching some lovely elevated lightning displays in the English Channel and the French coast......the stuff dreams are made of! 

Like I said in the regional thread a few days back, I too am arriving in Eastbourne on Tuesday and I will also be checking out to sea at night. I will keep a look out for another nutter like myself!

 

Kind Regards

 

Dave

[A.J]

Like I said in the regional thread a few days back, I too am arriving in Eastbourne on Tuesday and I will also be checking out to sea at night. I will keep a look out for another nutter like myself!

 

Kind Regards

 

Dave

I'm easy to spot....

 

I'll be the nutter wearing this....

 

[Richard Taylor]

Any sferics showing up around Aberdeen anyone? We've got thundery showers here just now (no thunder though). Temp was 21 now 18.

Edited June 28, 2015 by Richard Taylor

[Speedway Slider]

It would be quite loud in the stadium due to the motorbike racing. The latest forecast doesnt have a storm directly over the Stadium though.

Yes, I know the bikes are loud! I been there 9 times in the last 10 years, but usually in the crowd, not on the infield as a Marshall! I seem to remember a clap of thunder or two many years ago there accompanied by heavy rain which leaked through a gap in the sliding roof, and the thunder was extremely loud then and it wasn't overhead!

Could be an interesting evening in there... Especially if it breaks out locally to the stadium..

Especially as t/l is my Achilles heel!!!!

[William Grimsley]

I'm easy to spot....

 

I'll be the nutter wearing this....

 

images (3).jpg

I think I may need that shirt...

[Speedway Slider]

The "CAP" what causes this to be broken? Is it the heat at ground level that heats up the air to a warmer temperature and allows it to rise above a barrier at a higher level, allowing the clouds to elevate higher?

Edited June 28, 2015 by Speedway Slider

[Carl46Wrexham]

Just keep a lid on things eh chaps?

There is one key..nay crucial factor being overlooked here.

No matter how interesting/alarming (depending on your viewpoint) the charts may appear, the aforementioned factor must be mentioned, as it is all too relevant here.

The Carol Kirkwood factor. Think I'm jesting here? Look what happens EVERY single time the admittedly lovely lady blurts out the word "humdingers"....and you can bet your bottom dollar the word will be said this week.

Don't be in the least bit surprised if there is a forecast when the word is said, but nothing happens because of left over clag stubbornly refuses to go, with inevitable results.

Edited June 28, 2015 by Carl46Wrexham

[Utahraptor]

Any sferics showing up around Aberdeen anyone? We've got thundery showers here just now (no thunder though). Temp was 21 now 18.

There was a sferic north of Aberdeen on blitzortung not too long ago

[Chris K]

Just keep a lid on things eh chaps?

There is one key..nay crucial factor being overlooked here.

No matter how interesting/alarming (depending on your viewpoint) the charts may appear, the aforementioned factor must be mentioned, as it is all too relevant here.

The Carol Kirkwood factor. Think I'm jesting here? Look what happens EVERY single time the admittedly lovely lady blurts out the word "humdingers"....and you can bet your bottom dollar the word will be said this week.

 

My TV will be flipped over if she even dares to mention that vile, disgusting word.

 

The "CAP" what causes this to be broken? Is it the heat that heats up the air to a warmer temperature of a higher layer, allowing the clouds to elevate higher?

 

Frontal/surface trough features also help storms to develop along them if there is enough instability. For example - a cold front pushing into a warm-hot airflow. Storms are mighty difficult to forecast as a lot needs to fall into place at the right time. Some 'basics' with regards to getting the energy:

 

Cap (or Capping Inversion) - A layer of relatively warm air aloft (usually several thousand feet above the ground) which suppresses or delays the development of thunderstorms. Air parcels rising into this layer become cooler than the surrounding air, which inhibits their ability to rise further. As such, the cap often prevents or delays thunderstorm development even in the presence of extreme instability. However if the cap is removed or weakened, then explosive thunderstorm development can occur

 

CIN - Convective INhibition. A measure of the amount of energy needed in order to initiate convection. Values of CIN typically reflect the strength of the cap. They are obtained on a sounding by computing the area enclosed between the environmental temperature profile and the path of a rising air parcel, over the layer within which the latter is cooler than the former. (This area sometimes is called negative area.)

 

CAPE -  Convective Available Potential Energy. A measure of the amount of energy available for convection. CAPE is directly related to the maximum potential vertical speed within an updraft; thus, higher values indicate greater potential for severeweather. Observed values in thunderstorm environments often may exceed 1,000 joules per kilogram (j/kg), and in extreme cases may exceed 5,000 j/kg. However, as with other indices or indicators, there are no threshold values above which severe weather becomes imminent. CAPE is represented on a sounding by the area enclosed between the environmental temperature profile and the path of a rising air parcel, over the layer within which the latter is warmer than the former. (This area often is called positive area.)

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=spotterglossary - A useful page for storm terminology (some perhaps more relevant to America)

Edited June 28, 2015 by Chris K

[Carl46Wrexham]

My TV will be flipped over if she even dares to mention that vile, disgusting word.

Yea higher heat helps break the cap for home-grown surface based convection - but also frontal/surface trough features allow storms to develop along them if there is enough instability. For example - a cold front pushing into a warm-hot airflow.

Bad news Chris, she is in front of her bathroom mirror right now...doing her voice exercises...in a sort of sing-songy way "hum-hum-hum-hum-hummmmm...dingers"! Edited June 28, 2015 by Carl46Wrexham

[Methuselah]

Bad news Chris, she is in front of her bathroom mirror right now...doing her voice exercises...in a sort of sing-songy way "hum-hum-hum-hum-hummmmm...dingers"!

Like this: the Crole Kirkood Trio?

 

 Yea Hah!

[Carl46Wrexham]

Like this: the Crole Kirkood Trio?

Yea Hah!

Yep and she precedes it with "This one's for Chris K in Gloucestershire"! Arf. Instead of flipping your TV over Chris, just put your foot through it and send her the bill. Edited June 28, 2015 by Carl46Wrexham

[Methuselah]

Yep and she precedes it with "This one's for Chris K in Gloucestershire"! Arf. Instead of flipping your TV over Chris, just put your foot through it and send her the bill.

lol  

[Carl46Wrexham]

This post is for Gordon Webb :

No doubt you are already starting to get a bit anxious about the coming week, I can sympathise as I used to feel the same way about thundery weather.

What I can say is that there is absolutely no guarantee that where you live will see anything, it is possible that storms occur 10 miles down the road from you, and you are left wondering what the fuss was all about.

Storms are funny like that.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Of course, not forgetting 3 years ago today: