Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[Daniel*]

The last 2 plumes the heat did not arrive...well it is this time so that's one hurdle taken away.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

If this delivers, which is looking more likely now however it will pan out. With these charts and values, cloud heights could be phenomenal, and the electrical activity will be many times more greater than you're average or even half decent storm here!

This may well be what we've all been waiting for!!

Just hope I haven't jinxed it now lol

[Methuselah]

If this delivers, which is looking more likely now however it will pan out. With these charts and values, cloud heights could be phenomenal, and the electrical activity will be many times more greater than you're average or even half decent storm here!

This may well be what we've all been waiting for!!

Just hope I haven't jinxed it now lol

I was thinking that myself, earlier on. Are you ancient enough to recall the seven-mile-high cumulonimbuses of 1975 and 1983; bright sunshine to daylight darkness in the space of 10 minutes.?They were some storms!

[Staffordshire]

Right, I think I will be booking some time off and getting in the car next week, what days would you advise having off? Wed and fri?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I was thinking that myself, earlier on. Are you ancient enough to recall the seven-mile-high cumulonimbuses of 1975 and 1983; bright sunshine to daylight darkness in the space of 10 minutes.?They were some storms!

Unfortunately not lol. I'm an early 90's kid!

Remember one in the late 90's where that happened. May have been 99. Early 2000's too was pretty decent from my vivid memories.

75 looked like a great year I must say!

40 years on, can history repeat itself? I wonder!

[tomp456]

Latest GFS shows some absolutely astonishing charts for storms. Much of the country under 3000+ CAPE and LI's of -10, -11! Not to mention a strong jet streak overhead along with the trigger low. 

 

That sure is a recipe for BOOOM if ever I've seen one.    

The unfortunate thing is its over a week away! Sooo it won't happen, because the GFS is a tease.  It will end up over France as usual lol 

[stainesbloke]

I was thinking that myself, earlier on. Are you ancient enough to recall the seven-mile-high cumulonimbuses of 1975 and 1983; bright sunshine to daylight darkness in the space of 10 minutes.?They were some storms!

Remember the Aug 1981 storms that caused daytime darkness here followed by some of the most intense lightning and rainfall I've ever seen. I was terrified to tell the truth but fascinated all the same. 1983 was a great year then had another daytime darkness storm in '91 or '92, really hope to see that again here!

[Methuselah]

Unfortunately not lol. I'm an early 90's kid!

Remember one in the late 90's where that happened. May have been 99. Early 2000's too was pretty decent from my vivid memories.

75 looked like a great year I must say!

40 years on, can history repeat itself? I wonder!

Blimey, I was already old by then! But 1975 was indeed a good year for storms. Strangely enough, 1976 wasn't. I am seeing similarities between this year and 1983; that also made an about-turn at the very start of July: from miserably cool north-westerlies to 32C+ easterlies and southerlies...That said, that year has been and gone, and this one hasn't really started yet.

 

Hope springs eternal?

Remember the Aug 1981 storms that caused daytime darkness here followed by some of the most intense lightning and rainfall I've ever seen. I was terrified to tell the truth but fascinated all the same. 1983 was a great year then had another daytime darkness storm in '91 or '92, really hope to see that again here!

I remember that, too...I thought I was going blind!

[dusk]

Looking at the UKMO Fax chart at T+120, it does look promising to my very inexperienced eye.

 

HPs over Scandinavia and Iberia, with LP systems mid-Atlantic both moving NE should mean a definite continental plume of heat. That LP system over the Azores showing on the T+120 chart should move NE bringing frontal action into the heat and humidity from the SW heading NE.

 

What we don't want, I suppose, is a leading warm front from the LP like we had two weeks ago, which just created clag and suppressed convection.

[Sweatyman]

Remember the Aug 1981 storms that caused daytime darkness here followed by some of the most intense lightning and rainfall I've ever seen. I was terrified to tell the truth but fascinated all the same. 1983 was a great year then had another daytime darkness storm in '91 or '92, really hope to see that again here!

spookiest sky I've seen was a brownie greenie sky before the brum tornado 2005 and so muggy too

[William Grimsley]

Ahhh, we all knew it, a nice downgrade on the GFS this morning but still looking very warm/hot for many places. Annoyingly, the latest GFS run doesn't show the heat spreading as further west as before. However, it looks like the latest run on the NetWx-MR seems to still be going for some very unstable air through next week though.

Edited June 26, 2015 by William Grimsley

[Supacell]

Ahhh, we all knew it, a nice downgrade on the GFS this morning but still looking very warm/hot for many places. Annoyingly, the latest GFS run doesn't show the heat spreading as further west as before, though looks like NetWx-MR seems to still be going for some very unstable air through next week though.

 

But the 00z GFS is an upgrade on last nights 18z runs with the heat further west and thunderstorms too. At this range the plume and heat will move around run to run but hopefully not so much it ends up over the near continent. Currently the UK is still set for heat and huge thunderstorm potential. The high is not as robust to the east this morning which does mean the heat is pushed away by Sunday, but this is 9 days away and subject to change (as is the entire event). 

 

If things came off as per the latest GFS then most of the UK would feel the heat and be in with a chance of a storm or two, maybe severe

 

Storm Porn anyone?

 

 

Courtesy of NMM.

Edited June 26, 2015 by Supacell

[Dami]

I was thinking that myself, earlier on. Are you ancient enough to recall the seven-mile-high cumulonimbuses of 1975 and 1983; bright sunshine to daylight darkness in the space of 10 minutes.?They were some storms!

I can remember a storm in my childhood when i lived on the coast being like this, slow moving and turning day into almost night, it even made the local news. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Keep the juicy charts going models! Damn!!

Isay build heat in first then get sparks

[William Grimsley]

But the 00z GFS is an upgrade on last nights 18z runs with the heat further west and thunderstorms too. At this range the plume and heat will move around run to run but hopefully not so much it ends up over the near continent. Currently the UK is still set for heat and huge thunderstorm potential. The high is not as robust to the east this morning which does mean the heat is pushed away by Sunday, but this is 9 days away and subject to change (as is the entire event). 

 

If things came off as per the latest GFS then most of the UK would feel the heat and be in with a chance of a storm or two, maybe severe

 

Storm Porn anyone?

 

CAPE.png

 

Courtesy of NMM.

Yeah, I suppose. Still ML CAPE is more important here than SB CAPE due to being near the coast so overnight tends to be better for me.

[Azazel]

feel the charts will downgrade a touch to more realistic levels over the next few days, having said that, whatever happens now, it will be lovely and warm/hot and no sign of North Westerlies for a while:)

[Cableguy]

Ahhh, we all knew it, a nice downgrade on the GFS this morning but still looking very warm/hot for many places. Annoyingly, the latest GFS run doesn't show the heat spreading as further west as before. However, it looks like the latest run on the NetWx-MR seems to still be going for some very unstable air through next week though.

Talk of downgrades/upgrades at such an early stage is pointless.......this far out as long as the general trend is there then its all good

[Hodgheg]

At last, a chance for some proper heat and storms. Sick of 1 day heatwaves.

[Mapantz]

Those CAPE charts are just a complete waste of time at this stage, in my opinion. For example, It shows in excess of 2000 J/kg and -7 lift at around T+153 (00Z)

The extended skew-t (00Z) shows around 700 J/kg with a lift of -4 at the same timeframe.

I don't know how the extended skew-t's are generated, but, in the last couple of plume attempts, they have been more accurate on the run up, and turn out to be far closer on the actual day.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

A tease for next week hopefully lol! Nice warm sunshine now out down south. Was expecting it to be cloudy all day.

Charts overnight up and down like a yo yo pretty obvious at this range here's hoping!

[Lauren]

Just witnessed the most isolated rain shaft I think I've ever seen. You could literally see it from front to back. Was about 20 meters away and was about 10 metres wide of quite heavy rain then nothing. Looks like someone had just hosed up the middle of the carpark!

[alexisj9]

Just witnessed the most isolated rain shaft I think I've ever seen. You could literally see it from front to back. Was about 20 meters away and was about 10 metres wide of quite heavy rain then nothing. Looks like someone had just hosed up the middle of the carpark!

Sounds like fun for later. Not that I expect anything but the odd sharp shower.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Some real funky clouds today

[Neilsouth]

In my walk today I noticed some of the upper cloud had a mammatus like effect on the underside, that I guess would indicate instability? 

[Harry]

In my walk today I noticed some of the upper cloud had a mammatus like effect on the underside, that I guess would indicate instability? 

 

I saw this the other evening, which was also a humid airmass. Looks bizarre under calm conditions.