Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[Mapantz]

Yup...echo the stormy feel though...quite humid feeling with some high level mammatus

Had that look about it here, too. Thankfully it has moved on and the sun has come back out, hopefully many of us may get a peek of the aurora tonight.

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Just for fun I did wee a little when I saw this

[Convective]

Did someone order fireworks?

 

 

Great warm uppers too, allowing storm development throughout the morning and afternoon period, moving north then tapping into all that beastly energy for some fireworks that even NASA would be jealous of...

 

 

Admittedly its pointless uploading the dewpoints and humidities as they aren't anything to sing about but as aforementioned, these would be irrelevant until storms became routed into the lower levels

 

I'm going to upgrade from Lite to Full just to see the MLCAPE, upper temperature and upper dewpoint charts - even if its just for the visual pleasure!

Edited June 24, 2015 by Convective

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Well the overnight run would make America jelous... So far away though we can't get wrapped up into it.. BUT I personally LOVE the chase on charts and if it goes it goes move on to the next set up.. 

 

A week tomorrow... Massive amounts of change due

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

33 at 6pm? LOL! 

[Harry]

Oh, Surrey....if only I could get as excited as you! Those charts look positively stunning but as you rightly say massive amounts of change expected.

 

The plumes a few weeks back resembled that a week out only to fizzle back east and downgrade.

 

For El Brumo however I do seem to recall similar looking charts a week out, only for them to persist through to the event so it certainly is possible. However, we have equally had very colourful charts which haven't realised into storms at all (well capped atmosphere/lack of triggers).

 

Either way, looks as though we are still on for some potentially significant heat next week regardless of whether that translates into storms or not. 

 

[NUT]

Something is definety brewing me thinks but to what extent? If things do go bang though it could be huge.....................

[Darren Bown]

I saw these runs coming to fruition on Monday, but I'm staying massively sceptical. One thing that is looking more likely is a warmer week next week though.

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Difference between this potential and we have to use "potential" because its far out is that the heat is not a short affair.. 

 

In fact we begin to get the heat in from Monday and then a thundery end to the week.. 

 

It has time to build in and work it's magic before we see a thundery break down 

 

will it won't it?

[Azazel]

also the heat is rather more intense than the plume-fail from the other week.

 

Fingers crossed eh?

[Mapantz]

The heat hasn't arrived either, we cannot say it will be around for longer or shorter than previous set-ups.

I still don't feel very confident of anything lasting long, the synoptics are on a knife edge for my liking. I would like any potential "proper" warmth to hang around for a while, so i can enjoy it. I sympathise to those who wouldn't want that, but we are selfish when it comes to weather wanting. lol

[William Grimsley]

Well, I'm back! It is looking quite interesting as I can't wait to hopefully experience some proper summer weather with at least some very warm or hot weather looking likely over next week and possibly the week after with some thunderstorms later on next week and over next weekend! Here we go!

Edited June 25, 2015 by William Grimsley

[A.J]

we're off camping to Eastbourne next week, and certainly looking forward to some welcome heat and some lovely lightning displays over the Channel 

[William Grimsley]

we're off camping to Eastbourne next week, and certainly looking forward to some welcome heat and some lovely lightning displays over the Channel 

No doubt you have more chance than me! 

[Nick L]

I think this one will need to be called "El Oveno"

[Phantom2]

next week has fantastic potential, mid-to late week ...looking forward to it here in South Wales ...keep an eye on the CAPE Values

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Or El Clasico!

[William Grimsley]

El OMG!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Are we now on 'C' for plume names this summer? We have had two poor plumes already...

With that in mind I was thinking El Chiddingfold - because it's near me and it's looking good on the runs for there at the mo!

But seriously, I am considering trying to get Friday off so there are no distractions and I can radar watch 100% effectively - quite unlikely the boss will allow that tho! :-P

[William Grimsley]

I have to agree charts look fantastic, but I think we're going to have to wait till the time when we can nowcast these thunderstorms. The charts won't change anything that will happen on the day.

[Nick L]

Are we now on 'C' for plume names this summer? We have had two poor plumes already...

With that in mind I was thinking El Chiddingfold - because it's near me and it's looking good on the runs for there at the mo!

But seriously, I am considering trying to get Friday off so there are no distractions and I can radar watch 100% effectively - quite unlikely the boss will allow that tho! :-P

 

El "Christ it's hot"-o

 

In all seriousness, this a mile away at the moment, and heatwaves don't necessarily end in thundery breakdowns.

[A.J]

El "Christ it's hot"-o

 

In all seriousness, this a mile away at the moment, and heatwaves don't necessarily end in thundery breakdowns.

nope, I've already christened it.......El Inferno

[William Grimsley]

Has anybody seen the latest NetWx-MR?! 2600 - 3000 j/kg CAPE and -11 LI slap band on top of me for Thursday morning!

Edited June 25, 2015 by William Grimsley

[Methuselah]

You'll need some good galoshes to go with your massive cape, William?

[weatherobsuk]

I won't start getting excited until Sunday comes along and GFS is showing the trend continuing, there's still some 5 days to go until max heating which the charts are showing and anything can change between now and then. For now it's a waiting game..

[Guest]

We all know GFS over eggs CAPE and LI's on the basis they are calculated on usually excessive dew points, especially at this range. Still certainly a lot of potential there. I'm just hoping we get a good long run of hot days first as any widespread thundery actvitiy will likely herald the change to cooler more atlantic driven weather and will also leave a lot of debirs and mid leave cloud around surpressing temperatues.