Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[Biggin]

So what days are favourite for a bit of action the next week ??

[Harry]

So what days are favourite for a bit of action the next week ??

Far too early to say at the moment.

Currently any time between Wednesday and Sunday suggesting potential, probably earlier for southern and western parts.

Still very early doors

[Biggin]

OK thanks Harry. Any chance you can update us when it becomes more clear ?? I know it will come down to the day radar watching, just talking potential wise.

[Harry]

OK thanks Harry. Any chance you can update us when it becomes more clear ?? I know it will come down to the day radar watching, just talking potential wise.

Lol...you don't need to ask that favour...come Sunday/Monday if the charts are still looking positive this thread will be a hive of activity (possibly even crash altogether lol)

[Cloud 10]

Never to early to start speculating.

 

 

 

[Flipflop]

Had a slash of rain earlier just a covering, wet the plants but looks interesting for next week....  a tweak east please

[ancientsolar]

Wow, storm or no storm next week.. there'll be a flood of sweat everywhere! Got to say, i'm not looking forward to potential temperatures  28-34.. which I believe could happen if these charts play out correctly! 20 Celsius sleeping temperatures.. a big if, but this pulls off.. we could have an incredible mid-decade set of storms.. pretty sure we'll get some! 
Possible set up for our Midlands Tornado alley to come alive?

Anyway ~ Sunday Night.. but much more likely Monday evening/night.. we should keep an eye on Spain.. if there storms are going to happen it looks like Spain is the first target! ~ That may occupy our attention for a while, while waiting for them to push through France on Tuesday.. though that's just the beginning.. there's a whole week of European storms to enjoy!! ~ Perhaps we can start looking for potential cameras we can watch with good live stream quality

Edited June 26, 2015 by ancientsolar

[stainesbloke]

Anything over 90F really ramps up the 'violent thunderstorm' risk IMHO...could see some mental storms next week/weekend with huge lightning counts, hail, squally winds etc. Hopefully won't damage my new greenhouse that I built from scratch on the allotment early this year lol...

[Cloud 10]

New 120 hrs fax shows the potential potential nicely.

 

[ancientsolar]

New 120 hrs fax shows the potential potential nicely.

 

fax120s.gif

 

So we could be looking at a double Spanish Plume?

[dave48]

Potential for a really fantastic week for storm/heat lovers. Ensembles for southern parts now showing *mean* values close to 20 at 850 and some solid cross model agreement.

 

 

I have generally found that values of 15 and greater can provide some great stuff so some really wide potential for people all over the UK with this setup.

 

A fun few days coming up, watching how long the heat hangs on for and where and when gets the best thunderstorms. I hope it lives up to expectations.

 

 

[dusk]

New 120 hrs fax shows the potential potential nicely.

 

fax120s.gif

 

It's a corker, isn't it?

 

Combine that with a jetstream moving South to North at the same time (which is what the forecast is), then we're looking at some wind shear added in to the equation!

[Staffordshire]

Need your guys advice as I have to make my decision in the next 20 odd hours, I have to work 2 days out of thurs/fri/sat. Which two would you advise me working to allow me a good time to chase?

I was think work fri and sat?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Need your guys advice as I have to make my decision in the next 20 odd hours, I have to work 2 days out of thurs/fri/sat. Which two would you advise me working to allow me a good time to chase?

I was think work fri and sat?

 

Work Fri and Sat. I think the best instability may occur Wed night/Thur

[Staffordshire]

Work Fri and Sat. I think the best instability may occur Wed night/Thur

yeah, the latest gfs has seemingly pushed fri's potential East so it may look like a good idea to work fri and sat

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

So we could be looking at a double Spanish Plume?

Ah now you're talking about potential potential potential :-)

[Harry]

The 00z GFS a significant downgrade in my view. We keep heat going but we are, on the face of that run, limited to one plume mid week, with the real instability shunting East. It won't be too far away mind with still high temperatures persisting, and the general trend has been for a reload, BUT, first signs of week long storm potential vanishing into a narrower window.

The runs over the next few days (as ever) will be interesting

Edited June 27, 2015 by Harry

[Greeny]

I'm gonna enjoy the nice weather for now I certainly am not gonna wish the time away during that time and will see how it looks nearer to the potential period. Things change just too much at this range to worry about what they look like now. Good luck to all however and hopefully things will hold enough for a few of us to get some good storms.

[Ben Sainsbury]

The latest ECMWF run however keeps high 850 temps over the majority of the UK for much longer than the GFS, so slight variations in the models! Met Office now progging Bristol to hit 30'c on Wednesday so I can see maximums of 32-34'c somewhere!

 

25'c at 10am what is this!

Edited June 27, 2015 by Ben Sainsbury

[radiohead]

Thunderstorms as shown on the ECM for Thursday.

 

[richep]

Hopefully the west does get something. Slightly depressing when later models shift things East , as is more than not the case .

[William Grimsley]

Hopefully the west does get something. Slightly depressing when later models shift things East , as is more than not the case .

I think tbh, we have more chance getting thunderstorms here next week than anywhere else because we're nearer the instability and the low in the atlantic interacting with the hotter air over us and later further east. Even if we don't see the highest temperatures (which is starting to become a trend in recent GFS runs), we'll probably see the most thunderstorms.

[richep]

Hopefully william. Bit of a different situation to what we're used to I suppose what with the forecasted temps. Not had anything like this for a few years, so will be interesting to see how it pans out.

[William Grimsley]

Hopefully william. Bit of a different situation to what we're used to I suppose what with the forecasted temps. Not had anything like this for a few years, so will be interesting to see how it pans out.

I think June/July 2014 and September 2014 gave us more than we asked for in terms of thunderstorms. It was certainly a cracking year!

[legritter]

Certainly some real good potential now showing for thunderstorms next week .

but at this range very hard to be accurate ,looking at current charts my guess at this range would be to see some very good storms but slow moving ,lets hope they hit during overnight period .

we realy need to get to late tues /wed before areas can be named ,so lets have some cracking storms and plenty of posters getting in on the act ,STellas at the ready and blackout blinds for those of a nervous nature ,i realy understand those who dont like storms as my sister sits under the stairs , well lets enjoy the chase cheers