Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[pipsta]

Ive been dying for a good storm but I'm getting married on Saturday and Sod's law I will get what I've been wishing for!

[Cloud 10]

Lots of ingredients available on Wednesday/Thursday,but will there be enough to make a cake?

 

[William Grimsley]

Well, it looks like all the components are coming together for first SW England, Wales and NW England through Tuesday Night and then through Friday Night and Saturday quite widely across England and Wales as the trough moves in from the Atlantic. Now, it is just my usual question, do I have a chance? Last time it ended up as a damp squib but looking at the charts, this is highly unlikely to end up like that this time as more convection seems to be present much further west this time. Fingers crossed!

[Candice]

Lots of ingredients available on Wednesday/Thursday,but will there be enough to make a cake?

 

90-505UK.GIF90-101UK.GIFfax96s.gif

and more to the point - will someone remember to switch the oven on?

[Wilxy]

Well, it looks like all the components are coming together for first SW England, Wales and NW England through Tuesday Night and then through Friday Night and Saturday quite widely across England and Wales as the trough moves in from the Atlantic. Now, it is just my usual question, do I have a chance? Last time it ended up as a damp squib but looking at the charts, this is highly unlikely to end up like that this time as more convection seems to be present much further west this time. Fingers crossed!

 

Still to early to pinpoint where will see storms if there are any but i would agree at what your saying based on the currently charts but as we all know it will change still so lets wait and see but it does look exciting as things stand!

[William Grimsley]

Still to early to pinpoint where will see storms if there are any but i would agree at what your saying based on the currently charts but as we all know it will change still so lets wait and see but it does look exciting as things stand!

Yeah, my current analysis for us is thunderstorms to develop out in the channel on Tuesday Night and move north and north east wards towards you as the same with Friday Night's set up but looks more intense with more widespread thunderstorm activity especially further north later on Saturday.

[kev f]

Well, it looks like all the components are coming together for first SW England, Wales and NW England through Tuesday Night and then through Friday Night and Saturday quite widely across England and Wales as the trough moves in from the Atlantic. Now, it is just my usual question, do I have a chance? Last time it ended up as a damp squib but looking at the charts, this is highly unlikely to end up like that this time as more convection seems to be present much further west this time. Fingers crossed!

i think your chances are alot higher than last time. you were relying on imported storms from France last time but these storms later next week will be associated with a small low travelling up from Biscay so they are more likely to survive the trip across the sea. next week is reminding me of plumes in the 90's with the small "heat" lows coming up from iberia in the southerly flow.

[William Grimsley]

i think your chances are alot higher than last time. you were relying on imported storms from France last time but these storms later next week will be associated with a small low travelling up from Biscay so they are more likely to survive the trip across the sea. next week is reminding me of plumes in the 90's with the small "heat" lows coming up from iberia in the southerly flow.

Exactly, if I miss out I'm going to be quite downhearted and annoyed as was evident last time... (but lets not think about that...). But, yeah it will be nice to see at least one thunderstorm or at least see some lightning or hear some thunder that's all I'm asking but a good thunderstorm especially during the night would be great!

[ancientsolar]

think it's possible for Thunderstorms to break out .. particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday in England and Wales... but not exclusive to those 2 days.. as then on Friday-Sunday storms seem likely... ~ then into the following week.. looks like something to keep an eye on to!! With another Spanish Plume gathering.. the question is.. will it hit us.. ~ it is far off!

[Chris K]

Lots of ingredients available on Wednesday/Thursday,but will there be enough to make a cake?

90-505UK.GIF90-101UK.GIFfax96s.gif

If those fronts become slow moving at all and hits the hot air at the right time, some places are likely to see some big storms. The setup does not look too dissimilar to my last fantastic lightning display on may 8/9 2008. (Chart below) But then the fronts stalled across western parts overnight giving us approx 3-4 hours of elevated lightning. This time it looks to keep moving through?

Edited June 28, 2015 by Chris K

[kev f]

think it's possible for Thunderstorms to break out .. particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday in England and Wales... but not exclusive to those 2 days.. as then on Friday-Sunday storms seem likely... ~ then into the following week.. looks like something to keep an eye on to!! With another Spanish Plume gathering.. the question is.. will it hit us.. ~ it is far off!

yeah , i think western side of the british isles Tuesday into Wednesday then more nationwide next weekend as the Atlantic breaks through? after that? wouldn't like to say

[Wilxy]

Exactly, if I miss out I'm going to be quite downhearted and annoyed as was evident last time... (but lets not think about that...). But, yeah it will be nice to see at least one thunderstorm or at least see some lightning or hear some thunder that's all I'm asking but a good thunderstorm especially during the night would be great!

 

Nothing better than a elevated night time storm   

[William Grimsley]

I might just be getting a little excited now, I just need to not get my hopes up and think that I won't see anything... Probably the best plan, IMO.

[Harry]

I'm going to avoid any analysis until much nearer the time.

I think it could be like 17th July last year (if I remember the date correctly) where storms were forecast for certain areas (as late as 10pm) before storms exploded in a much wider arc. So, even if storms are forecast and charts agree etc etc doesn't mean storms won't pop up just about anywhere under the conditions forecast

[William Grimsley]

I'm going to avoid any analysis until much nearer the time.

I think it could be like 17th July last year (if I remember the date correctly) where storms were forecast for certain areas (as late as 10pm) before storms exploded in a much wider arc. So, even if storms are forecast and charts agree etc etc doesn't mean storms won't pop up just about anywhere under the conditions forecast

Yup, I remember the 17th, just before we went to France. Nice evening thunderstorms here which were very localised and didn't give much rain here but some very loud thunder.

Edited June 28, 2015 by William Grimsley

[Speedway Slider]

I'm working next Saturday afternoon/evening at the British Speedway Grand Prix at the Millennium Stadium, Cardiff... The roof will be shut, but what are our chances of storms on Saturday between say 1pm and 10pm? If we get one overhead I would imagine it would be quite loud in the stadium?

[Sprites]

It would be quite loud in the stadium due to the motorbike racing. The latest forecast doesnt have a storm directly over the Stadium though.

Edited June 28, 2015 by Sprites

[A.J]

I'm looking forward to this week now....heat and storms...bliss!

 

I'll be down in Eastbourne tues-fri camping with the wifey and kids....picture the scene, thursday night, kids asleep, and there's me with a large rum and coke in one hand, cigarette in the other, watching some lovely elevated lightning displays in the English Channel and the French coast......the stuff dreams are made of! 

Edited June 28, 2015 by ajpoolshark

[Mapantz]

Like Harry, I haven't bothered to look at much recently, but, I just thought I'd take a look at some details for Dorset. The custom extended skew-t doesn't offer much during the week, other than some showers.

I personally wouldn't want that, as it would ruin the sunshine and warmth.

The Northwest looks quite good for something thundery on Wednesday, as it stands now of course.

Many of us will be prone to capping I expect, so I'll look towards to the end of the week. In the mean time, I hope I don't lose signal on my freeview box this week.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Friday coming alive!

0z:

6z:

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Been ages since i seen a strong thunderstorm, interesting to see the charts have a lot of CAPE in my area, you very rarely see that.

[William Grimsley]

Like Harry, I haven't bothered to look at much recently, but, I just thought I'd take a look at some details for Dorset. The custom extended skew-t doesn't offer much during the week, other than some showers.

I personally wouldn't want that, as it would ruin the sunshine and warmth.

The Northwest looks quite good for something thundery on Wednesday, as it stands now of course.

Many of us will be prone to capping I expect, so I'll look towards to the end of the week. In the mean time, I hope I don't lose signal on my freeview box this week.

Showers? Wha? Hang on, skew-t doesn't just tell the whole story. Have you checked the NetWx-MR chart, probably you are too far east for any action this time!

[IanR]

slighty optimistic about this area,  but how many times has it shown potential for here but the east still get the storms and nothung much here,

 

the bbc animated graphics made me laugh, a train of active lightning symbols up from the south west up to the wigan/ manchester area, but stopping and dying just before it reaches    .  they are learning 

[Sainsbo]

NMM 6z is pretty mouth watering for storm lovers

 

 

 

 

Li of -11 and over 3000JKG^1 CAPE in places, let's hope that it doesn't get downgraded this time,

[William Grimsley]

NMM 6z is pretty mouth watering for storm lovers

 

 

 

 

Li of -11 and over 3000JKG^1 CAPE in places, let's hope that it doesn't get downgraded this time,

Interesting, this chart is showing MUCAPE but it looks only surface based, still I think most of these thunderstorms will be mid level based hence more likely over south western parts at first due to mid level instability being higher than surface based.