Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[lassie23]

I have just watched Simon Keeling's weather update http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php and if it doesn't thunder in the SE between Thursday and Saturday, then I will eat my pet Gold Fish. (Poor Larry)

Edited June 28, 2015 by lassie23

[Sprites]

With these Humdingers its hard to say what part hums and what the ding part is. Infact a humdinger sounds like a type of noise. But how a storm hums and dings is a mystery.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Great live update currently taking place with Gav Partridge. gavsweathervids.com

[William Grimsley]

I have just watched Simon Keeling's weather update http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php and if it doesn't thunder in the SE between Thursday and Saturday, then I will eat my pet Gold Fish. (Poor Larry)

Yes definitely, even showing nearly -20 here aswell. Very encouraging!

[shaky]

Latest nmm is crazy for England and wales for wednesday!!temps of 30/31 degrees and cape values are through the roof!!

[Methuselah]

Beware the roving camera! 

[Mapantz]

Some of you may remember me posting this: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83244-storm-convective-discussion-010615-onwards/?p=3213164 during the last storm setup..

 

I have just got off the phone to a friend, his house was struck that night, the electrics were blown to smithereens in both his and his neighbours house. I've only just found out about it! 

[Methuselah]

Beware the roving camera! 

Some more corkers...Thursday? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnLB04yPptk

Edited June 28, 2015 by Ed Stone

[Methuselah]

Right on the head! 

[Costa Del Fal]

Latest nmm is crazy for England and wales for wednesday!!temps of 30/31 degrees and cape values are through the roof!!

A lot of Cape and energy goes to waste it seems on Wednesday with few storms breaking out in the west. Typically it looks already that most of any storms will be for the East mainly.

Why I have no idea as we should have the same temperatures as further East pretty much?

Edited June 28, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[Raidan]

Because that's how it always goes Costa!

[cheese]

A lot of Cape and energy goes to waste it seems on Wednesday with few storms breaking out in the west. Typically it looks already that most of any storms will be for the East mainly.

Why I have no idea as we should have the same temperatures as further East pretty much?

It's about 70-odd hours away so I wouldn't get too concerned. WRF-NMM can be and is often wrong.

[Weather-history]

The 72hr Fax chart has a trough from off the west coast of Scotland, through Irish Sea, Wales, Bristol area to Dorset, reminds me a bit of early July 2001.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Storms do seem to have a fascination for Eastern areas at times. Must be there favourite place or something. I suppose you do get those scenarios at times where storms/showers start to develop over Western UK and end up intensifying significantly as they head further East or North-East. The sneaky things! I think in a way, though, some of the storm chances, such as those towards mid week, will start becoming the usual nowcasting and radar watching events to see exactly how the thundery weather unfolds (assuming the storm possibilities don't get watered-down too much). Hopefully, though, all/most of those who love stormy weather will get something at some point. Especially as the Atlantic Lows try to throw some troughing towards the UK at times from the West and inject instability into the warm South-Westerly/Southerly and South-Easterly flows to produce areas of storms and thundery rain.

[Costa Del Fal]

You would think with southerly or south easterly winds many would do well but if the nmm is anywhere near close than unless you live in East anglia or the SE at least for this first plume then you can largely forget it storm wise. Not saying it's right as the netweather medium range in house model is better.

Edited June 28, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[Guest]

It is nice to see that us severe weather enthusiasts have something to look forward to.

 

In addition to the anticipated storms, temperature records may tumble, especially if the heatwave extends north

 

The other factor is risk to health. A recent heatwave in India and a current heatwave in Pakistan have resulted in many fatalities sadly. Pictures of roads literally melting in India were alarming.

 

Anyone with an eye on the weather who has elderly or disabled relatives or friends, will I hope, do everything they can to ensure they keep them forewarned, prepared and looked after and well hydrated for the duration of this heatwave. Those who are frail are often least able to make the necessary preparations. 

 

Simple, low cost steps to keep cool such as keeping jugs of water in the fridge, buying in ice, fixing up a pedestal fan etc can make all the difference.

Edited June 28, 2015 by Guest

[Costa Del Fal]

It is nice to see that us severe weather enthusiasts have something to look forward to.

 

In addition to the anticipated storms, temperature records look set to tumble. The UK record set in Faversham, Kent in 2003 at 38.5C looks vulnerable with 38.5C predicted for the Faversham area on Wednesday.

 

Further north, new regional records are bound be set with 34.5C due for Manchester area

 

The other factor is risk to health. A recent heatwave India and a current heatwave in Pakistan have resulted in many fatalities sadly. Pictures of roads literally melting in India were alarming.

 

Anyone with an eye on the weather who has elderly or disabled relatives or friends, will I hope, do everything they can to ensure they keep them forewarned, prepared and looked after and well hydrated for the duration of this heatwave. Those who are frail are often least able to make the necessary preparations. 

 

Simple, low cost steps to keep cool such as keeping jugs of water in the fridge, buying in ice, fixing up a pedestal fan etc can make all the difference.

No these records won't be broken. Where on earth is your data coming from?

[Chris.R]

The 72hr Fax chart has a trough from off the west coast of Scotland, through Irish Sea, Wales, Bristol area to Dorset, reminds me a bit of early July 2001.

Now that would be nice. Best storm I have ever seen occurred on 4th July 2001. Admittedly I am only 20, but anything remotely close to that night would do me for the year. Actually not had an overhead night storm since then. Wind vectors are similar to then as well.

[The PIT]

Too early to say as yet the best time to look would be Tuesday evening. Even then as we all know Storms have the mind of their own at times and storms can crop up well away from predicted cape zones.

[ANYWEATHER]

There is no way on Earth that the all-time UK record is under threat! I can't even see the July record coming under threat, to be honest. I think you are reading the feels like temperatures, not the actual temperatures. 34-35C is going to be the very highest, realistically.

 

But yes, the storms will also be the key focus of this week.

Indeed Buddy, I have a sneaky feeling that severe thunderstorms along with flash flooding could well be the newsmaker this week...  as regards model output precip, it simply wont be modelled  until the final hour

Edited June 28, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[Lauren]

Right on the head!

I think it hit the car and hit him indirectly. I'm pretty sure if it was straight to the head he would have been dead.

[cheese]

Would have probably been in bits and pieces!

[Carl46Wrexham]

Storms do seem to have a fascination for Eastern areas at times. Must be there favourite place or something. I suppose you do get those scenarios at times where storms/showers start to develop over Western UK and end up intensifying significantly as they head further East or North-East. The sneaky things! I think in a way, though, some of the storm chances, such as those towards mid week, will start becoming the usual nowcasting and radar watching events to see exactly how the thundery weather unfolds (assuming the storm possibilities don't get watered-down too much). Hopefully, though, all/most of those who love stormy weather will get something at some point. Especially as the Atlantic Lows try to throw some troughing towards the UK at times from the West and inject instability into the warm South-Westerly/Southerly and South-Easterly flows to produce areas of storms and thundery rain.

No...no..and no "thundery" rain thank you very much! I would sooner have hot sunshine than heavy rain with the odd rumble.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Now that would be nice. Best storm I have ever seen occurred on 4th July 2001. Admittedly I am only 20, but anything remotely close to that night would do me for the year. Actually not had an overhead night storm since then. Wind vectors are similar to then as well.

I don't think anyone living on the Western side of the UK has forgotten the night of July 3rd/4th 2001. Haven't witnessed anything like the Lightning frequency from a storm since that night..Excess of 81 strikes per minute.

[richep]

Wish I could remember the date of a storm which hit here. July/august 2001/2002 , , something like that. I remember hearing on local radio about a huge thunderstorm heading towards me which waös over Yeovil. I was stood at the window looking and waiting but nothing for 2 hours, then a distant rumble. Once over me it lasted from 2am until 6am then slowly moved north but then strangely moved back south my way, not sure what happened there but that was probably the best British storm I remember. Constant cgs and torrential rain. Wish I could remember the date, its always bugged me.