Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[Speedway Slider]

Certainly some real good potential now showing for thunderstorms next week .

but at this range very hard to be accurate ,looking at current charts my guess at this range would be to see some very good storms but slow moving ,lets hope they hit during overnight period .

we realy need to get to late tues /wed before areas can be named ,so lets have some cracking storms and plenty of posters getting in on the act ,STellas at the ready and blackout blinds for those of a nervous nature ,i realy understand those who dont like storms as my sister sits under the stairs , well lets enjoy the chase cheers 

That was my refuse of choice when I was a kid! (Under the stairs) prefer to sit in my car these days!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

For once, it actually looks like these storms will favour the west, especially on Wednesday and into Thursday. I can't really see much getting into eastern areas until the weekend, when the Atlantic completely breaks through.

 

very true that, these model runs look pants for my location, but as you say weekend could produce if the Atlantic breaks through (when in winter)

Edited June 27, 2015 by Ilovethesnow

[stevofunnelcl]

Excited for Uk chances for storms next week

 

Nothing today of course, but i'm getting in the mood for what is hopefully to come

 

Major storms breaking out now just west of Frankfurt, Germany

 

Watch live with this cam, i've seen some lightning strikes (13:10)

 

http://www.wetter.com/wettercom-live/frankfurt/533298891af60/

[Supacell]

Currently in Ljubljana, Slovenia and things looking interesting with storms breaking out. Nothing here yet but the storms to my north will hit providing they don't decay.

[Nick F]

The Euros so far today showing more amplification of the trough to the west (thus slower breakdown) than both 00z and 06z GFS runs, so remains to be seen IMO how quickly the heat will be removed, certainly from E/SE Britain, by next weekend.

 

Too far off to forecast thunderstorms, though it does look more likely that storms will develop across far western areas to begin with on Wednesday on the W/NW edge of the hot and humid plume - where colder air from the ttrough to the west over-runs, then perhaps more widespread across the UK on Thursday, as per GFS, though ECM still keeps thundery activity running north over the western side of the UK before breaking out storms further east Fri/Sat - because it is more amplified and slower with the breakdown from the west.

 

All-in-all, for once, it will be an interesting weather period to watch/experience for the UK IMO, as these plumes don't come along that often!

[sn0wman]

The Euros so far today showing more amplification of the trough to the west (thus slower breakdown) than both 00z and 06z GFS runs, so remains to be seen IMO how quickly the heat will be removed, certainly from E/SE Britain, by next weekend.

 

Too far off to forecast thunderstorms, though it does look more likely that storms will develop across far western areas to begin with on Wednesday on the W/NW edge of the hot and humid plume - where colder air from the ttrough to the west over-runs, then perhaps more widespread across the UK on Thursday, as per GFS, though ECM still keeps thundery activity running north over the western side of the UK before breaking out storms further east Fri/Sat - because it is more amplified and slower with the breakdown from the west.

 

All-in-all, for once, it will be an interesting weather period to watch/experience for the UK IMO, as these plumes don't come along that often!

Looks like Scotland & NW England could be in the firing line for storms next Wednesday/Thursday (for once!). I've become so used to just watching webcams in Southern England when there's a plume occurring - very exciting to finally have potential pretty much anywhere in the UK. I know it's too early to forecast specifics thunderstorm-wise, but does it look like there's any potential for some severe thunderstorms? Noticed that a strongish jetstream is forecast to be near Scotland on Wednesday/Thursday - maybe this could aid development of stronger thunderstorms?

[Supacell]

Wow, it narrowly missed my hotel but that was a proper storm! Bolt fest to my east :-)

[cheese]

Next week is definitely looking interesting. Wednesday night and Saturday look particular good around these parts - all forecasts I look at show a similar theme - thunderstorms. The Met and Beeb have a high of 28C on Wednesday with rain showers during the day.. how strange is that? Looks humid. Weather.com has a high of 31C with thunderstorms Wednesday eve (low 18C).

 

Obviously too far out to be making any predictions as of yet but the potential is there.

[daveywoo1977]

As ever with a plume event there is a chance of a thundery breakdown but I also remember all the times nothing happens. We have had lots of hot periods with just a drissly cloudy cold front goes through it then turns a bit cooler. But then again I have a good feeling for the coming months for thundery weather :-)

[davechesh]

Next week is definitely looking interesting. Wednesday night and Saturday look particular good around these parts - all forecasts I look at show a similar theme - thunderstorms. The Met and Beeb have a high of 28C on Wednesday with rain showers during the day.. how strange is that? Looks humid. Weather.com has a high of 31C with thunderstorms Wednesday eve (low 18C).

 

Obviously too far out to be making any predictions as of yet but the potential is there.

well heres hoping, still remember the afternoon of the Harehills tornado, although small was an amazing experience to be working outside and feel that hot to icy cold wind bending the willows over double.

 

heres dreaming of even half the developments of that day! The wife thinks were going shopping Saturday... Nope

[Ben Sainsbury]

So apparently were having UV Levels of 8 when the UK can only reach 7? Is this an error or will UV Levels be unusually high?!

[Daniel*]

From Met Office official site: "The UV index does not exceed 8 in the UK (8 is rare; 7 may occur on exceptional days, mostly in the two weeks towards the end of June)." This fits the bill Ben.

[dusk]

Charts are still looking promising from Wed onwards.

 

LP West of Ireland, HP over the North Sea, both pulling hot and humid up from the continent. Add in LP fronts swinging in from the Atlantic, and a trough now showing on the UKMO Fax for Wed, we're looking (IMO) at some fireworks moving NNE Wed afternoon onwards.......

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

So exciting - just being able to recline in my new garden chair after sunset with a beer and listening to Glasto on the old headphones with a beer is awesome to start!

To think that by weds it could be so hot and with the excitement of a true storm chase makes my weekend!

Edit: Being eaten by a fly and smelling my jacket potato burning on the BBQ - not so exciting...

Edited June 27, 2015 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Condor Vitesse]

So exciting - just being able to recline in my new garden chair after sunset with a beer and listening to Glasto on the old headphones with a beer is awesome to start!

To think that by weds it could be so hot and with the excitement of a true storm chase makes my weekend!

Edit: Being eaten by a fly and smelling my jacket potato burning on the BBQ - not so exciting...

Get your own back. Burn the fly and eat it in the Jacket potato!!!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I have a spare jacket potato with a fly in it if anyone's hungry...

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Mouth watering charts are still rife on the 18z. Wednesday and Friday into Saturday are starting to grab my attention now as we are getting ever closer to the potential.

Got a good feeling about this one if I'm honest. Some of these runs actually put last years plume into the dark if this is to happen!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Mouth watering charts are still rife on the 18z. Wednesday and Friday into Saturday are starting to grab my attention now as we are getting ever closer to the potential.

Got a good feeling about this one if I'm honest. Some of these runs actually put last years plume into the dark if this is to happen!

Awesome stuff. Start of this year was noticeably poor so looking forward to something we can really get our teeth into...

[Ben Sainsbury]

I must agree GFS 18z looks very promising to my eye, temperatures widespread 29-30'c across most of UK Tuesday and more so Wednesday, 850hpa Temps like to keep the 20'c over southern and eastern areas through Wednesday. Then Thursday the least promising with considerably lower temps/less instability, before a return of southerly winds reintroducing 30'c and maybe 32-34'c + 20'c 850hpa temps for a brief period over Saturday, so potentially more imports there and maybe more slightly lower based during Wed/Thurs, hopefully resulting in less unwanted cloud around.

As many have said already, the Jet Stream seems to pass over the UK over Wednesday into Thursday definitely adding the Wind Shear ingredient! I must also say not quite coming into view yet but 150-300m2 SRH potentially available into Wednesday.

No areas of wind convergence catching my eye, but those strong southerly winds could be extremely hot! Currently my view of things, but details can't be taken from this stage,

Please correct if I'm wrong, very inexperienced!

Edited June 27, 2015 by Ben Sainsbury

[dusk]

Nick F's synposis of thunderstorm birth is very good, and - at the moment - we have some potential.

 

Mositure = check

Heat = check

Fronts into plumes = check

Troughs = check

Instability = ?

 

Currenlyeyelikeit.

[Harry]

Nick F's synposis of thunderstorm birth is very good, and - at the moment - we have some potential.

 

Mositure = check

Heat = check

Fronts into plumes = check

Troughs = check

Instability = ?

 

Currenlyeyelikeit.

I don't think instability will be an issue...I think that is a given in this plume scenario. What kills us is equally strong CIN which is probably likely. However, encouraging as you say are the fronts/troughs which should act as a catalyst for storms. Furthermore the extreme heat (by UK standards) Wednesday could be enough to break the cap in areas where no other trigger exists perhaps capable of generating pretty severe storms.

As ever devil in the detail, however I'm not seeing a huge amount of the ingredients lacking if I'm honest...for now....

What a great week ahead - very hot, very humid, threat of storms across a large swathe of the UK...so even if storms aren't near me, I may have a chance at seeing some distance illuminations

[Ben Sainsbury]

GFS 0z again quite different, temperatures don't seem to hit the more significant 32-33'c at any stage really, 20'c 850hpa temperatures don't feature besides Wednesday, the instability doesn't really affect Southern and Western England anywhere near as much, however I do believe with such dirnual heating and moisture from the West I still expect storms to develop otherwise, it's just a case of how quickly the warm air pushes through.

It isn't all negative there are huge amounts of potential available almost everywhere so!

Edited June 28, 2015 by Ben Sainsbury

[Supacell]

Here in Slovenia there are alerts for thunderstorms again from 3pm until 8pm :-)

[Gordon Webb]

I was hoping Wednesday be a not too bad day as I am going to skegness for a day out but not sure if I'll go now I have enough trouble dealing with them when I'm inside never mind possibly catching them there during day or travelling back in my location in the early evening

 

on a sidenote I had vowed to stay away from all these forums not to distress myself and from Thursday upto an hour ago I had succeeded now back at square one and feel like any progress has been lost oh well

 

apologies for prattling on just so disappointed with myself at the moment and wesdnesday in now playing on my mind

Edited June 28, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[Summer Sun]

I was hoping Wednesday be a not too bad day as I am going to skegness for a day out but not sure if I'll go now I have enough trouble dealing with them when I'm inside never mind possibly catching them there during day or travelling back in my location in the early evening

 

on a sidenote I had vowed to stay away from all these forums not to distress myself and from Thursday upto an hour ago I had succeeded now back at square one and feel like any progress has been lost oh well

 

apologies for prattling on just so disappointed with myself at the moment and wesdnesday in now playing on my mind

 

Going to the coast should see you avoiding the worst of the heat with the high teens more likely