Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[BlueHedgehog074]

No...no..and no "thundery" rain thank you very much! I would sooner have hot sunshine than heavy rain with the odd rumble.

I know what you mean. Although I wouldn't mind heavy, thundery, rain too much (still a bit more preferable to disappointing, light, rain). they're still nowhere as entertaining as proper thunderstorms. Plus, thundery rain kinda feels like a waste when it doesn't even produce lightning and hail. Just personally hope that this week does produce more in the way of actual thunderstorms without much frontal, cloudy, mess getting in the way (unless the thunderstorms are embedded into the fronts).

[Generalelectrix]

Hi@ all

 

Nmm 12z run has a new interesting ingredient for wednesday evening which was missing in the previous runs. Have a look at moisture at 700 hPa:

 

 

The previous runs (Someone posted CAPE and LI a couple of pages previously for Wed Evening) also had excellent CAPES, but with dry air up aloft the best CAPE is no good, at the most we would be staring at turkey towers and wondering what went wrong with the plume event for the umpteenth time.

This latest chart though is good, hope it stays that way, if yes I am slowly beginning to get excited too

 

Lets see what happens

 

Ralph 

[dusk]

It's going to kick off on Wed, isn't it?!?!

[richep]

According to the bbc weather a couple of minutes ago, central and Eastern parts are favoured for storms this coming week. Still good potential for us western folk though i think

[AWD]

It's going to kick off on Wed, isn't it?!?!

Yeah, in the No Storms Club!

[William Grimsley]

Yeah, in the No Storms Club!

 

Come on AWD, we're going to get pummeled! Forget the BBC graphics again...

[Wilxy]

Yeah, in the No Storms Club!

 

 

Good thing I have a car because if the storms don't come here i'm going to them unless they end up over the continent

[richep]

Storms or not, these high temps and the build up of checking forecasts etc , still all good.

[Daniel*]

Come on AWD, we're going to get pummeled! Forget the BBC graphics again...

Please stop it!!! You're arousing misfortune

I'm not even going to bat a eyelid until I see something with my own eyes. I suggest you do the same.

[William Grimsley]

Please stop it!!! You're arousing misfortune

I'm not even going to bat a eyelid until I see something with my own eyes. I suggest you do the same.

Good advice, I was only being a joke! Hehe! Maybe I need to calm down a bit! We've just gotta nowcast now, maybe starting from Tuesday?

[daveywoo1977]

Again cloud cover is going to be a thorn in our side ar some point and for some areas. There will be definitely a storm or two somewhere but it could be pretty much be anywhere in the UK next week. I don't feel anything widespread Allthough Saturday into Sunday looks the best bet for the East of the UK. Depends on cloud cover after France get their normal bashing

[Carl46Wrexham]

Come on AWD, we're going to get pummeled! Forget the BBC graphics again...

Careful..you may get strapped to a gun carriage (along with Ms Humdinger) and dragged through the streets of Aberdeen or wherever by angry no storm club members if nature decides on throwing the odd spanner in the works.

Can't make definitive calls on these events this far out.

[Chris K]

Yep and she precedes it with "This one's for Chris K in Gloucestershire"! Arf. Instead of flipping your TV over Chris, just put your foot through it and send her the bill.

 

I'll send her a stern letter of complaint in Bristolian to voice my disappointment.

[William Grimsley]

Careful..you may get strapped to a gun carriage (along with Ms Humdinger) and dragged through the streets of Aberdeen or wherever by angry no storm club members if nature decides on throwing the odd spanner in the works.

Can't make definitive calls on these events this far out.

That sounds painful... But, yeah I'm not making any definite decisions until 1 hour does/if arrive.

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening all

 

i have booked Wednesday off to attend a funeral @1pm in Lincolnshire i hope things hold off till later,will be packing the cam for the journey home just in case things kick off on the way back,but i hope things hold off until i get back home

 

my Alaskan Malamute(called storm) will be on the crystal ball manipulating it for us all

 

 

on a down note,i am on afters this week which i will not enjoy,as it will be over 100f in that warehouse with a toughening plant kicking out 2000f

 

good luck this week folks,and don't forget to get some FOOTAGE

[StormChaseUK]

The GFS is still holding strong, looks like Wednesday night and Friday will be classics.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Gee wiz Friday night is possibly one of the best charts I've seen for storm potential. Not to mention Wednesday as well. Which will be the predecessor of Fridays potential.

Been ages since I've seen anything like this, especially with a more powerful looking round 2!!

[ChezWeather]

Pretty much in the middle of the country so West or East will suit me either way! 

Wednesday looks like the first point of interest, followed again by Friday into Saturday. 

[Snowshine]

Very good possibilities of storms - especially in the Midlands / East.

Of course there will be downgrades to charts, but nevertheless it may be some of the best storms ever!

[Stormraider]

Will we see storms on the same level as the one we had here in 1995? Best storm I've ever seen lasting for hours. Been told storms like that happen ever 15 years or so... so we are overdue. As long as we don't get any on the weekend as got my boy with me.

[Supacell]

I am getting quite interested in the charts for next week now. We are one day away from the arrival of the heat to the extent I will likely arrive back into the uk tomorrow and be greeted to similar temperatures I have left in Slovenia (30c yesterday). Then tomorrow night sees the start of what could be a very noteworthy thundery spell with storms moving across western parts overnight and then transferring slowly east during Wednesday. It can and probably will still change but it is looking increasingly likely for this first batch of storms.

It then looks as if after a day with lower storm potential on Thursday (still some potential I may add) there is another shove of a thundery plume into Friday. Details and timing of this subject to change as still 4/5 days away.

All in all a very interesting week of weather with potential of some intense and possibly severe storms with Weds and Fri currently looking the best days.

Edit. I should have said this week not next. The continental heat is getting to me

Edited June 29, 2015 by Supacell

[Cloud 10]

Wednesday looking good for widespread thundery activity as a trough moves across the country and engages those hot temperatures.

 

Morning..

 

Evening..

[Pat Butcher]

It's too early on Monday morning to post anything in the technical thread, but Wednesday 18-21Z is making me rather tumescent...

[NO LONGER POSTING]

How many times have we been here before seen great charts and nothing has happened..

 

Word of caution, I would use charts as a meer guide, wait till the day to see what happens with local readings, radar and sat.. 

 

Thunderstorms are allusive customers.. 

[Lauren]

How many times have we been here before seen great charts and nothing has happened..

 

Word of caution, I would use charts as a meer guide, wait till the day to see what happens with local readings, radar and sat.. 

 

Thunderstorms are allusive customers.. 

 

Absolutely this. I hate to be a killjoy, but it wouldn't be the first time we've had amazing potential, all the boxes ticked and nothing happens but a damp squib. Honestly, nowcasting is the way to go. That way you aren't devastated if it doesn't work out and you're pleasantly surprised if it does.