Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[Allseasons-Si]

Downpour number two.

[Harry]

Going to be a frustrating week I suspect waiting to see how the models pan out with regards a plume next week.

 

In the past four runs, we can summarise the situation largely as follows;

 

1. No plume coming close

2. Plume across C/S France

3. Plume across France/Benelux

4. Plume affecting much of England/France/Benelux

 

The models keep flittering between the above and with only one run in four showing some potential reaching our shores, I would remain exceedingly sceptical of anything it churns out. Golden rule obviously being pre-Sunday/Monday, take charts with a pinch of salt (though the 00z is nice viewing)

 

Nice though there is a potential alternative offering to these beastly westerly/northerly breezes...I know I have been abroad recently, but its pretty much back to the status quo before I left for hols.

Edited June 23, 2015 by Harry

[Supacell]

Before the will it or won't it plume of next week the east of the country may have some interest on Friday. Even Friday is a long way off though and the risk is small, but there could be a few rumbles for the usual suspects (Lincolnshire). There is nothing big on the horizon until next weeks possible plume. Although it has only about a 1 in 4 chance of coming off it is at least keeping us storm nuts interested. I won't be getting excited to the same level I did about the last one though until I see a huge black wall cloud moving over with frequent lightning and constant thunder

[Harry]

Before the will it or won't it plume of next week the east of the country may have some interest on Friday. Even Friday is a long way off though and the risk is small, but there could be a few rumbles for the usual suspects (Lincolnshire). There is nothing big on the horizon until next weeks possible plume. Although it has only about a 1 in 4 chance of coming off it is at least keeping us storm nuts interested. I won't be getting excited to the same level I did about the last one though until I see a huge black wall cloud moving over with frequent lightning and constant thunder

As long as the wall cloud doesn't drop a funnel over my house, your house or anyone else's for that matter

[Supacell]

As long as the wall cloud doesn't drop a funnel over my house, your house or anyone else's for that matter

It can on mine if it likes

[Harry]

06z wipes it out again...the past couple of days really highlights the fact that 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z run off different data 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Oh god here we go..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

hmmm...

 

 

 

 

Even more hmm...

 

 

Edited June 24, 2015 by Surrey

[Mapantz]

??

[Harry]

garden-path.jpg ??

 

That pic, while a nice garden, is lost on me completely

[Lauren]

I think's it supposed to be 'leading you up the garden path'.

[Wivenswold]

That's less "oh my god" and more "Oh look, could get interesting in France".

 

Seriously, can we stop getting sticky pants over highly marginal forecasts on one model please?

[richep]

Possibility of some high temperatures next week with a possible breakdown. A long way off and might not happen, but it will be discussed.

[dragon falls]

Hi all we going over to France next a week on Fri looks like lots of heat any chance of storms my camera will be ready

[Wivenswold]

I'm in Cologne for the second half of next week and even I'm not getting excited about potential this far out.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I'm in Cologne for the second half of next week and even I'm not getting excited about potential this far out.

Reckon you'll be in for a good shout over there. Cologne always does well stormwise.

[Wivenswold]

Yes, fingers crossed. The trend appears to be for the heat to build over the mainland of Europe over the next few weeks.

[stainesbloke]

I'm in Cologne for the second half of next week and even I'm not getting excited about potential this far out.

Hehe yes, better to be cautious but current charts are rather exciting! I'll be in SE Spain next week but hope NW Europe gets the hot and stormy weather it has been waiting for. Cologne should be very well placed for both heat and storms. If it all goes t*ts up then at least the beer and schnitzel are good!

[Harry]

That's less "oh my god" and more "Oh look, could get interesting in France".

 

Seriously, can we stop getting sticky pants over highly marginal forecasts on one model please?

 

I don't think there is any sticky pants going on to be fair, merely commenting on increasingly consistent signs of some possible convective weather...the purpose of this thread.

 

The recent runs of GFS have been increasingly consistent as regards a plume moving N/NE across France early to middle of next week. Some runs push it clear of the UK without really gracing our shores, others bring slightly more robust thundery potential at various stages through the week. The consistent aspect of the runs has been hot and humid air moving north over France...where it goes after that is very very changeable at the moment (as you'd expect the best part of a week out).

 

ECM offering even stronger plume potential and some really quite high temperatures and potentially humidity...perhaps our first 30C+ day of the year. Extent of any thunder risk (based on the latest ECM models) is up in the air as it will be fairly HP dominant...that is not to say surface or thundery lows could not spin off over France given the potentially very high temperatures.

 

So...one can conclude very little at this stage as regards thundery potential given the extremely volatile model runs. There are, nevertheless, increasingly strong signals for some southerly driven weather, with some very high temperatures next week.

Edited June 24, 2015 by Harry

[Supacell]

Well I have a few days of thunder potential to look forward to. Friday is showing up as a day for some possible storm activity in eastern parts - Met Office has the thunder symbol across Lincolnshire and NMM has some decent CAPE across the SE half of the UK:

 

 

 

CAPE a lot more subdued on the GFS but all charts show an area of convective rain crossing W to E through the day in some warm and humid subtropical air courtesy of the remnants of TS Bill.

 

After this I fly out to Slovenia for 3 days/nights. Now whilst there are no super CAPE charts showing for that area the forecasts I am seeing all seem keen to break out one or two storms during the course of the weekend so I may see something.

 

Then I have the possibilities back here in the UK next week. Although it is a long way off I am off work all next week so would chase if anything looks to happen within reachable distance.

Edited June 24, 2015 by Supacell

[Evening thunder]

Met Office has the thunder symbol across Lincolnshire

 

They know how it works now.

Edited June 24, 2015 by Evening thunder

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Feeling and looking quite stormy this evening. Yet no mention of storms for us. Lots of high level scuddy bits like I'd expect to see on a stormy day... Wondering if there might be something surprising brewing?

[Mapantz]

Feeling and looking quite stormy this evening. Yet no mention of storms for us. Lots of high level scuddy bits like I'd expect to see on a stormy day... Wondering if there might be something surprising brewing?

 

It's just a weakening warm front crossing, just bringing cloud and the odd light shower.

[Harry]

It's just a weakening warm front crossing, just bringing cloud and the odd light shower.

Yup...echo the stormy feel though...quite humid feeling with some high level mammatus

[A.J]

quick update for those of us who like to look out in thunderstorm FI......next week looks predominantly hot and dry for most based on the 12z GFS......troughing in the atlantic would allow a sustained south easterly flow, this flow low will relatively dry air with low to moderate humidity so whilst very warm/hot, it will feel very pleasant....Isolated storms are possible (local convergence/sea breeze convergences etc) but for most these would be the exception rather than the norm.....More interest though for the SW quarter of the UK (Including Ireland) as the SE flow would tap into a rich theta-e air over Biscay/West France resulting in moderate surface and elevated instabilty so a greater chance of thunderstorms/multi cell clusters developing over france/biscay drifting N/NW during the modelled period..

 

All subject to (huge) change of course, usual caveats apply