Storm & Convective Discussion - SPANISH PLUME - 30/06/15 onwards

[ancientsolar]

Hi Paul, are you seeing potential for early hours imports Thursday then?

I'm just not seeing it

I thought there would have been imports from France tonight tbh.. but no ones saying it.. so I've somewhat given up on that idea

[WillinGlossop]

28.5c now.... Jeez..... Nice warm breeze.....

[Chris.R]

Thanks Nick,  I think it will be the type of evening those in the NW will see distant flickers of lightning from Anglesey direction.

Don't say that lol I was going camping their now But can't!

[Costa Del Fal]

Great Update Nick, Also Torro just updated and pretty much the same as Nick/Netweather

 

Possibility of Marginal Supercell Structures tomorrow near Scotland, with a more general risk of an MCS Moving up from La France for SE & East Anglia into early hours of Thursday morning.

 

The possible really nasty stuff could be in store for Friday, more on this next 24-48 hours

Where is torros forecast? Can only see the last one from the 20th June???

[Biggin]

80+ here, bluest  clearest sky I have ever seen.  Zero chance of a cloud today. Sun lounger out, beer out. I can wait a few days for the stormy stuff down here

Edited June 30, 2015 by Biggin

[ChezWeather]

Where is torros forecast? Can only see the last one from the 20th June???

From their facebook page

"Hi all - updated thoughts for thunder risk:

Today - isolated thunderstorms may form either over Scotland, or over Ireland/N Ireland and track into Scotland, and perhaps the far north of England. An upper disturbance, as noted on water vapour imagery in the SW approaches, should lift NNE'wards this afternoon and may provide enough forcing for ascent, along with low-level wind convergence, to allow thunderstorms to form. Wind shear is reasonably strong so organised multicells are possible, with a low risk of a supercell.

Tonight - Any thunderstorms which form over Scotland should move away to the north-east. Further south, EML plume from Iberia will advect into SW England - steep mid-level lapse rates /near 8C per km/ will reside in this plume. In the absence of strong upper forcing for ascent, thunderstorm activity within this regime *should* be reasonably isolated - a few ribbons of vorticity are apparent on WV imagery over Iberia and ECMWF brings this modest area of ascent into the SW of England/S Wales later tonight and thence N across much of England and Wales on Wednesday morning. Atop the EML plume a few mid-level thunderstorms from AcCas clouds may affect SW England/S Wales late tonight or tomorrow morning, and then drift northwards across mainly western parts of Britain through the morning.

Wednesday - As mentioned above a few mid-level storms may be moving northwards on Wednesday morning, mainly in western Britain but cannot be ruled out from central southern England and the Midlands. Thereafter, strong surface heating and an approaching upper trough/height falls should foster the development of scattered strong-severe thunderstorms from late morning onwards from Wales into N England and Scotland. Isolated development cannot be ruled out within the hot plume further south-east into the Midlands. Storms will be developing within decent instability /1000-1500J/Kg CAPE/ and fairly strong deep layer wind shear. However, the shear will be rather unidirectional favouring splitting supercell storms and organised multicells. As mentioned N England and Scotland seem most at risk with strong winds and large hail possible, as well as frequent lightning.

Overnight, these should move away but a cluster of storms/a possible MCS may move into SE England later in the night.

Thursday - scattered thunderstorms are possible on Thursday over Scotland in the post-frontal airmass. Also, a risk in E Anglia close to the departing heat/instability plume.

Friday - a surface ridge should keep most places fine through much of the day, but pressure falls to the west along with an approaching upper trough should advect the moist/unstable tropical air back in from the south-east later on. Thunderstorms may form on the warm front across Wales/SW England later in the day before intense thunderstorms form or move up from the south across portions of SE England/E Anglia. This has the potential to be a rather nasty event but we should get the next couple of days out the way first!

Paul."

[Methuselah]

I thought there would have been imports from France tonight tbh.. but no ones saying it.. so I've somewhat given up on that idea

Conditions simply aren't right, ancientsolar: most of France, Spain and the southern parts of the UK are under a descending airmass, just now...It won't be until some kind of trough, with its associated shear and moisture arrives, that all of the necessary ingredients will be in place.And that looks like it'll occur sometime between Thursday night and Friday..? Someone else has already used the 'pressure-cooker' analogy...

 

I think! Have I read what the experts are saying properly??

80c+ here, bluest  clearest sky I have ever seen.  Zero chance of a cloud today. Sun lounger out, beer out. I can wait a few days for the stormy stuff down here

You must be almost boiling!

[Nick L]

80c+ here, bluest  clearest sky I have ever seen.  Zero chance of a cloud today. Sun lounger out, beer out. I can wait a few days for the stormy stuff down here

 

80c?!   

[Biggin]

Conditions simply aren't right, ancientsolar: most of France, Spain and the southern parts of the UK are under a descending airmass, just now...It won't be until some kind of trough, with its associated shear and moisture arrives, that all of the necessary ingredients will be in place.And that looks like it'll occur sometime between Thursday night and Friday..? Someone else has already used the 'pressure-cooker' analogy...

 

I think! Have I read what the experts are saying properly??

You must be almost boiling!

Er Makes a hasty edit )))  v 

80c?!   

Feels like it Nick

[Paul Sherman]

Hi Paul, are you seeing potential for early hours imports Thursday then?

I'm just not seeing it

 

Hi Harry

 

Yes I would imagine an Elevated MCS Or an area of Storms could possibly clip into our corner of the world Thursday morning, one to watch but would give this a 60:40 chance atm. Dont give up hope, the Cap is breachable tomorrow over NE France but definately NOT Today. I also think an area further south from around Hampshire might get a brief cap break from Sea Breeze convergence tomorrow evening as well, again that is one to watch from wind vectors etc tomorrow afternoon, main action tomorrow though will be Midlands Northwards for Surface based storms.

[Tempest]

Lochmaben sitting at 23 degrees F. Cloudy with spits and spots of rain. Beginning to feel humid. Yipee

[Mapantz]

Interesting wind speeds/gusts on the GFS for tomorrow..

 

 

The GFS certainly has it spot on for today, it's blowing a good'un here!

 

 

 

[Nick L]

Lochmaben sitting at 23 degrees F. Cloudy with spits and spots of rain. Beginning to feel humid. Yipee

 

80c in Kent, 23F in Scotland...some wild temperature variations today

[Paul Sherman]

80c in Kent, 23F in Scotland...some wild temperature variations today

 

What do you mean, thats tropical for Scotland!

[Harry]

Hi Harry

 

Yes I would imagine an Elevated MCS Or an area of Storms could possibly clip into our corner of the world Thursday morning, one to watch but would give this a 60:40 chance atm. Dont give up hope, the Cap is breachable tomorrow over NE France but definately NOT Today. I also think an area further south from around Hampshire might get a brief cap break from Sea Breeze convergence tomorrow evening as well, again that is one to watch from wind vectors etc tomorrow afternoon, main action tomorrow though will be Midlands Northwards for Surface based storms.

 

Cheers Paul!  

 

Certainly expecting nothing today, just keeping my fingers crossed for Weds night as working from home Thursday (lie in, yay!).

 

Friday certainly sounding exciting, but too variable at the moment.

[Tempest]

80c in Kent, 23F in Scotland...some wild temperature variations today

Yes, but, suppose its still early. I think its warm but not sunny warm, more heavy warm. And there's a thought, does the sun need to shine before storms can develop? Its a blanket of cloud at the mo.

[Nick L]

Yes, but, suppose its still early. I think its warm but not sunny warm, more heavy warm. And there's a thought, does the sun need to shine before storms can develop? Its a blanket of cloud at the mo.

 

Sorry I was referring to your typo!

 

And you don't necessarily need sunny skies for storms to develop, but it certainly helps.

Edited June 30, 2015 by Nick L

[Methuselah]

80c in Kent, 23F in Scotland...some wild temperature variations today

That's a recipe for a good storm, all right...And tornadoes and basketball-sized hail!

[Tempest]

Sorry I was referring to your typo!

 

And you don't necessarily need sunny skies for storms to develop, but it certainly helps.

Aahhh! See what you mean rofl. Its all this excitement. Too much for me.

[Harry]

06z NMM (NetWx high res) keen to develop storms much earlier and further south across S Wales tomorrow.

 

Look what it churns out over the N Sea after storms fire over Wales!!

 

To be honest, I am still baffled by the divergence in all of the models just 24 hours out...which (if any) will prevail I wonder!?

Edited June 30, 2015 by Harry

[Biggin]

Aahhh! See what you mean rofl. Its all this excitement. Too much for me.

Lets face it we have all done it once or twice

 

 

Great info  on potential guys thanks

[sn0wman]

Great Update Nick, Also Torro just updated and pretty much the same as Nick/Netweather

 

Possibility of Marginal Supercell Structures tomorrow near Scotland, with a more general risk of an MCS Moving up from La France for SE & East Anglia into early hours of Thursday morning.

 

The possible really nasty stuff could be in store for Friday, more on this next 24-48 hours

I agree - brilliant update from Nick

Sounds very interesting. By 'near Scotland', do you mean off the coast or just a general small risk of marginal supercell structures anywhere in Scotland? Thanks. 

Edited June 30, 2015 by Nick L
Fixed double post

[Harry]

I agree - brilliant update from Nick

Sounds very interesting. By 'near Scotland', do you mean off the coast or just a general small risk of marginal supercell structures anywhere in Scotland? Thanks. 

 

Oi oi oi, don't be greedy now!

 

Latest models I've seen suggests much of Scotland is going to get pummelled tomorrow.

Edited June 30, 2015 by Harry

[Paul Sherman]

At this point in time anywhere North of Cumbria I think stands the best chance of a Supercell or if it lines out an intense bow/line segment

 

There are no hard and fast rules in where storms will fire, If I had a target in Western Kansas for instance, I pick a town in my risk area which is probably the size of scotland and go from there, narrowing it down to a target town can happen like Canadian (27th May) this year but it is rare.

 

I think storms will initiate further south and mature as they get into Cumbria/Scotland, can and probably will change, just look at what Harry just posted with the poor old Isle Of Man getting wiped out lol

[William Grimsley]

Has anybody looked at Sat24? Nice amount of Ac Cas just leaving France now heading towards Devon!