Southeast England & East Anglia, Weather Chat...July 1st 2015...

[Blessed Weather]

No risk of meltdown currently, ECM back tracked this morning to a 12hr toppler giving only cold weather for the north.

GEM on its own this morning. I know where I'd put my money!!

 

Well you may well have a point about the duration of the upcoming cold spell Ben as the models vary on that one. But still lots of reasons for us coldies to be pleased!

GFS is very much on board for next weekend and has been consistent for some days on this (and GFS keeps us cold for several days). ECM is wobbling around more, delaying the cold until Sunday and lifting temps a bit on Monday before it's last frame shows another northerly plunge lined up.

 

After the horrible mild start to November there's finally some interesting weather showing up on all models. Allelujah!

 

Here's this morning's GFS chart for next Saturday with 850hPa -5C uppers over the whole of the UK:

 

[Ben Lewis]

I didn't see the previous run, but ECM shows a change from generally mild to generally cold, to me, at about day 6. Potential there IMHO...

Oh the potential is there of course. There's always potential in FI

But reading the MOD thread the charts of yesterday have downgraded today. I think the GEM is still strong.

I'm not expert though.

Back to my location and the hours upon hours of rain has now started here.

[Steve C]

Oh the potential is there of course. There's always potential in FI

But reading the MOD thread the charts of yesterday have downgraded today. I think the GEM is still strong.

I'm not expert though.

Back to my location and the hours upon hours of rain has now started here.

 

I don't think day 6 is particularly FI, in this instance. The pattern is shown in the GFS ensembles, so to me there is a certain amount of cross model agreement. We are getting to the time when cold weather becomes meaningful IMHO. There's no point in a northerly plunge in mid October, as far as I'm concerned - it's just chilly and annoying then.

 

[lassie23]

I won't be getting carried away until it is SNOWING in my own back yard!

[Daniel*]

I think it is appropriate time for us to have a new thread?

Cloudy,

Roll on Cold spell..

Taken from Morning ECM:

Get your coats & scarves at the ready it will be a shock to the system with WAA knocking into Greenland that does excite me we have to go back to 2010 for similarities.

Edited November 14, 2015 by Daniel*

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Tuesday night into Wednesday now one to watch...   

 

 

 

 

[seaside 60]

Just normal Nov weather for down here.

Bit of wind bit of rain.

Zero to get excited about.

Totally different for up north though.

 

Shame its another sat outside wasted.

Next sat should be nice and fresh and cold.

[Daniel*]

Tuesday night into Wednesday now one to watch...

Many small branches/twigs went down where I am by Storm Abigail and that being relatively paltry in comparison to the above charts of course it will change. I love windstorms typically the far NW takes it all.

These more southerly tracking lows are indicative of a more meridional jet = much more leeway for cold PM air to spill south good for coldies meanwhile currently it is raining lightly as it has done for much of the day.

Edited November 14, 2015 by Daniel*

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Many small branches/twigs went down where I am by Storm Abigail and that being relatively paltry in comparison to the above charts of course it will change. I love windstorms typically the far NW takes it all.

These more southerly tracking lows are indicative of a more meridional jet = much more leeway for cold PM air to spill south good for coldies meanwhile currently it is raining lightly as it has done for much of the day.

 

Looks windy tonight to..

 

Widely 40-50mph (top end more towards exposed parts and coasts)

 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

 

 

 

 

 

[loopydreamer]

Light rain here and notice the wind is increasing a little

[Captain Shortwave]

Many small branches/twigs went down where I am by Storm Abigail and that being relatively paltry in comparison to the above charts of course it will change. I love windstorms typically the far NW takes it all.

These more southerly tracking lows are indicative of a more meridional jet = much more leeway for cold PM air to spill south good for coldies meanwhile currently it is raining lightly as it has done for much of the day.

We will have to wait until next weekend before we even see average temperatures, this week shows temperatures in the mid teens throughout as we lie on the mild side of the divide with winds generally from the south west. It looks wet and fairly windy at times, though nowhere near as bad as western areas (still 30-50mm looks probable which is still a significant total).

The talking points for the moment will be the rain (wind isn't too extreme for the time of year) and the lack of sunshine yet again.

 

As for today, complete garbage.....

Edited November 14, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Nasty day, but perhaps more seasonal than the drizzly muck of a few days back.

[loopydreamer]

No rain but it's getting a little gusty here. I love the wind ^_^

[lassie23]

SNOW for my back yard next weekend, I like SNOW

[Rain123]

SNOW for my back yard next weekend, I like SNOW

Foam or cotton wool? 

Rain, none that heavy, on and off all day today.

 

RIP Everybody that had their precious lives taken away from them in Paris last night.

[Ste L]

Should be worth keeping an eye on the weather later next week

Edited November 14, 2015 by Ste L

[Kentspur]

Some interesting snow prediction charts for next weekend for our region even though it will most probably only be FI eye candy

Edited November 14, 2015 by Kentspur

[Ben Lewis]

I do find the bickering over on the MOD thread very cringe and irrelevant compared to today's sad news in Paris.

Mild lovers vs Cold lovers = Cherry pick my personal preference chart and argue why it's the correct evolution!

Very tiresome

[Lauren]

Surely we all know by now whrn it comes to snow, nowcasting is the way to go!

[Ben Lewis]

The wind woke me up a number of times.

Made worse by having very tall trees to the front of my house.

Hopefully will stay dry today to actually get outside and do something

[Captain Shortwave]

A windy but bright start down in Rayleigh.

Decent model output, though the UKMO output again shows poor potency and longevity in respect to the potential cold snap coming next weekend. Cautiously optimistic though.

[tinybill]

blowing  a  gale even put the washing out !!! cant see amy rain for us just yet  looking very wet up north of us

[bluebell]

A windy but bright start down in Rayleigh.

Decent model output, though the UKMO output again shows poor potency and longevity in respect to the potential cold snap coming next weekend. Cautiously optimistic though.

I'll join you in your optimism then, since you appear to maintain an objective eye on what all these weather prediction models turn out!!

It would be great to have some more seasonable temps that make the cheeks glow! Anyhow it looks like it's wet windy week ahead, I'll be donning the 'passion killer' waterproof bottoms for my walk from the car to the office!

[Ben Lewis]

Just back from walking the dogs.

Very mild and very windy, great drying out weather.

So much better than that grey dank mild damp weather earlier this week.

If it's going to be mild, today's weather is much better.

Opened all windows in house to let breeze come through to air, who'd of thought that was possible on a mid November morning without getting cold.

[JennyJane1]

seems quite windy outside still and wind has been crashing about all night, very dark but can't hear any rain, doesn't seem too chilly in house with heating off so i'm guessing its a mild day.