Storm & Convective Discussion - 04/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[poseidon]

Just been heavy rain around today. After a heavy squally downpour at around 3pm, currently wstching a nice bubbly line of convection passing to the north of me from Ashwellthorpe near Wymondham. According to radar its passing over Fakenham and Aylsham due east. Amazing how far away it is but looks closer.

I have a conveyor belt of cells passing me at present. Clouds don't quite look high enough though to produce anything. Looking really dark to my north/east and can see the rain (presumably the Ipswich cell)

Edited July 12, 2015 by poseidon

[Greeny]

I have a conveyor belt of cells passing me at present. Clouds don't quite look high enough though to produce anything. Looking really dark to my north/east and can see the rain (presumably the Ipswich cell)

Yep I can see that line from upstairs in my mums house.

[Homerr]

Thought the clouds going past looked a little Cb like

[Captain Shortwave]

I am really start to think we could see a repeat of Friday 3rd of July this coming Thursday.

Good push of 850s from the south

 

Coupled with a clear shortwave disturbance

 

Elevated storm risk looks good throughout Thursday night

 

Certainly a chance of seeing another outbreak of overnight thunderstorms.

[Homerr]

Hope so... that night was pretty spectacular. However, if I could also have something while I am down on Portland from Saturday onwards that would also go down nicely... should be able to get some good photos if it does kick off down there at night ^_^

[Harry]

Indeed - there have been off and on signals about a potential short lived plume Thursday into Friday.

 

The emergence of this plume however has been a little off and on and it precedes a fairly active LP system and fronts sweeping in from the Atlantic.

 

GFS going for temps close to 30C across SE England and widely into the mid 20s for much of England and Wales...clearly humidity will be on the climb...jet influence sweeps in from the SW through Friday night, though not quite overlapping peak instability to my eyes so severe potential not as pronounced as two weeks ago. Destabilising should be no problem as an active looking front sweeps in late evening/overnight.

 

I would say however...this is not of the same scale as the plume 2 weeks ago...this time we have much more modest instability (region of 1,000 to 1,500) and as I refer to above, I think suspect severe potential will be less pronounced.

 

One to watch...

Edited July 13, 2015 by Harry

[Stormyking]

12z about to roll out, still unsure about this small active plume at the moment, but its one that is interesting me quite, fingers crossed. I would happily take this Mornings 00z, or even 06z, that would be proper storms due to small intense pockets.

[The PIT]

Long time away yet and as ever the storms may pop up elsewhere.

[Harry]

Still looking fairly promising, although will wait until at least tomorrow night before doing a proper chart review/comparison.

[sunnijim]

BBC South East forecast now calling for thunderstorms on Thursday night into Friday.

[richep]

Uncomfortably humid here and netweather forecast giving me 52% chance of storms here later

[Leeclark5]

Hi all, new to this forum but here's a timelapse made by my mate of last weeks storms here

Hoping to get some more of these later in the summer

Edited July 14, 2015 by Leeclark5

[Harry]

Looking a bit close for comfort at the moment, slight nudges east.

 

Looks to my mind very similar to two weeks ago...nudge of warm and humid air, of similar temperatures and humidity, squeezing in from the continent within a warm sector. Current FAX chart depicts a trough, as per two weeks ago, forming within that sector during the late evening hours. CF sweeps in behind clearing the warm and humid air way through the early hours. Jet stream nudging from the SW presents some marginal risk of severe. One key difference of note is that the instability predictions are, for ease, around 50% less than two weeks ago. NMM 5 currently going for MUCAPE in the region of 1000-1500, LIs of typically -4 to -5. Last week in contrast was in the order 2,000 to 2,500 with LIs of -7 to -8. Both NMM 5 and GFS are keen to break out convective precipiation, likely to be thundery in my view, but limited to SE portions (less extensive than two weeks ago)...I am doubtful how far west the instability will get...currently I think its only marginal as to whether come tomorrow night NMM/GFS will show as much instability across the SE quarter as it is now. 

 

So...currently looking promising, with the key caveat that GFS appears to have a slightly less consistent set of runs than for the event two weeks ago. Also there appears to me at least to be a trend of easterly migration.

[Daniel*]

Sounds good Harry hopefully this thread will be bustling soon.

[Harry]

Based upon current information, this is what I'd plump with in terms of storm risk.

 

You'll note that in comparison to my last forecast (for fun) it is not as extensive and not as high probability...on the 3rd July I plumped with a very high risk across EA/Lincs/Cambs area (probabilistic only) with a severe zone around C/S/SW England.

 

So, to confirm I don't think what is shown on the charts at the moment, we are looking at anything like what we had two weeks ago. But, as I say, currently fairly decent potential for storms in similar sorts of areas as two weeks ago...noting the easterly shift warning in my earlier post.

[Harry]

Sounds good Harry hopefully this thread will be bustling soon.

 

I'm quite surprised by the lack of interest at the moment....maybe many people all stormed out after the nuts events of two weeks ago.

 

Potential has been there quite consistently the past few days, with the first mention from the Beeb yesterday (that I heard anyway)

[ChezWeather]

Based upon current information, this is what I'd plump with in terms of storm risk.

 

You'll note that in comparison to my last forecast (for fun) it is not as extensive and not as high probability...on the 3rd July I plumped with a very high risk across EA/Lincs/Cambs area (probabilistic only) with a severe zone around C/S/SW England.

 

So, to confirm I don't think what is shown on the charts at the moment, we are looking at anything like what we had two weeks ago. But, as I say, currently fairly decent potential for storms in similar sorts of areas as two weeks ago...noting the easterly shift warning in my earlier post.

Looks like a good shout that Harry!

 

Iv been keeping an eye on this, looks like small chance of something up here.

[Supacell]

I'm quite surprised by the lack of interest at the moment....maybe many people all stormed out after the nuts events of two weeks ago.

 

Potential has been there quite consistently the past few days, with the first mention from the Beeb yesterday (that I heard anyway)

 

Make no mistake mate I am interested and watching this. However, I have been keeping quiet currently due to the uncertainties with the BBC currently going for places through the central slice of the UK and the GFS going for the SE. There is the obvious worry of a shunt east taking all the action to the Low Countries.

 

If they come off as shown on GFS then probably not as widespread as the 4th July but severity level would likely be similar if not more so.

 

Helicity and supercell parameter - very high in the SE

 

   

 

Both CAPE values and shear values are high enough alone but combined would provide some excitement

 

 

If this was showing for within 24 hours then this thread would likely be buzzing. We shall see

[legritter]

well at least we have potential ,but detail will have to wait till thursday i feel .

currently i will be watching the bbc plus probably tomorrows met off update ,but you never know sometimes in these watch and wait situations a good system could give the trigger for some .

Fantastic read on the colour of lightning forum ,but as i said any colour will do ,cheers .

[Greeny]

I'm quite surprised by the lack of interest at the moment....maybe many people all stormed out after the nuts events of two weeks ago.

Potential has been there quite consistently the past few days, with the first mention from the Beeb yesterday (that I heard anyway)

For me until it gets to within a 48 hour timeframe I would rather forget about the potential. I tend to think its a bit pointless when the charts are likely inaccurate and won't transpire. Especially after all the excitement then disappointment from earlier in the year. Seemed a lot of wasted time and energy over a few days when I could have been worrying about other things. Not a moan at all just a lesson learnt that duration also seemed to go on for ages, too long! Anyhow it will soon enter the 48 hour timeframe so looking forward to seeing charts firming up. ☺

I certainly note any long distance potential with my north eye and do still hope it will come to something for a few.

Edited July 14, 2015 by Greenday

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Would be awesome to see another thundery night!

4th July alone though has given me my storm fix for the year! Think I heard more thunder that night than I did throughout 5 years of 2007-12!!

[Daniel*]

Well the last thundery outbreak, was modelled way out in advance with quite some accuracy, so I have reasonable confidence the S/E part of England will see something at least. I have a inkling this could be rather interesting for London & South East going by the above parameters above but still more charts needed.

[Harry]

Would be awesome to see another thundery night!

4th July alone though has given me my storm fix for the year! Think I heard more thunder that night than I did throughout 5 years of 2007-12!!

Ah you see now 3rd/4th lacked thunder for me - immense amounts of lightning, but very little thunder, even from very close IC bolts (I.e right overhead).

I'd take 2-3 strikes per minute with awesome peeling thunder over the electrical disco of early July to be honest or to clarify, I'd take anything over the stratiform bore-fest currently in-situ lol

For me until it gets to within a 48 hour timeframe I would rather forget about the potential. I tend to think its a bit pointless when the charts are likely inaccurate and won't transpire. Especially after all the excitement then disappointment from earlier in the year. Seemed a lot of wasted time and energy over a few days when I could have been worrying about other things. Not a moan at all just a lesson learnt that duration also seemed to go on for ages, too long! Anyhow it will soon enter the 48 hour timeframe so looking forward to seeing charts firming up. ☺

I certainly note any long distance potential with my north eye and do still hope it will come to something for a few.

Certainly close to the 48 hour window

Edited July 14, 2015 by Harry

[Staffordshire]

I don't look to be in a great position for this one, still, I will be watching the radar later tomorrow

[Stormyking]

Interesting again for Thursday Night, especially for the South East and Midlands Northwards, my area looks borderline at this moment in time, though im not going to complain as we had them unexpected storms Friday night

Latest 12z has some decent Wind sheer too for Thursday Evening along the South Coast which could also be an Interesting feature

 

Edited July 14, 2015 by Stormyking