Storm & Convective Discussion - 04/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[chionomaniac]

 Stop defending their fails ,  latest forecast at about 9.00pm was adamant about storms over the north at midnight,  with lightning graphics all over the shop WHY  , no word of anything marginal, infact the words were , 'we have already seen thunderstorms in the southwest now marching eastwards and northwards . a lie , the thundery stuff is restricted to the far south, if it all kicks of in the next hour I will give them credit 

Nonsense. I have just watched the 21:09 forecast uploaded on their website and I still believe that the error is in your interpretation of the forecast rather than the forecast itself. Wigan has a thunder symbol possible at around 2am on that ( with most thundery outbreaks towards the NE and Scotland) and the radar prediction is very similar to what we are seeing currently.

[Stormyking]

I have been given permission to share this with you from the island, 

 

[Geordiesnow]

Nonsense. I have just watched the 21:09 forecast uploaded on their website and I still believe that the error is in your interpretation of the forecast rather than the forecast itself. Wigan has a thunder symbol possible at around 2am on that ( with most thundery outbreaks towards the NE and Scotland) and the radar prediction is very similar to what we are seeing currently.

 

And I think thats the important thing for me, any thundery outbreaks is not always certain but what they have predicted accurately is that the heaviest of any rainfall will be over Northern areas and most Southern areas should see less rainfall. 

 

The rain has not totally cleared so who knows what may happen but for me, its not like they got the forecast all that wrong in fairness. 

[chapmanslade]

 Stop defending their fails ,  latest forecast at about 9.00pm was adamant about storms over the north at midnight,  with lightning graphics all over the shop WHY  , no word of anything marginal, infact the words were , 'we have already seen thunderstorms in the southwest now marching eastwards and northwards . a lie , the thundery stuff is restricted to the far south, if it all kicks of in the next hour I will give them credit 

Clearly not a 'lie' - there have been storms in the south west exactly as predicted.

 

I do believe some people have unrealistic expectations when it comes to predicting convective weather - perhaps they should learn a little more about it before criticising so much.

[IanR]

Clearly not a 'lie' - there have been storms in the south west exactly as predicted.

 

I do believe some people have unrealistic expectations when it comes to predicting convective weather - perhaps they should learn a little more about it before criticising so much.

ok not an intentional lie but mis information, latest forecast with helen willets mention thunderstorms in wales have ALREADY tracked north from there, HAVE THEY... NO, there is nothing showing but moderate rain, this is my point,  

[staplehurst]

have the bbc got this wrong again,  they showed lightning graphics dancing all over the north of england at what would be this time,   instead a few sporadic flashes 300 miles south on the dorset / hampshire coast LOL.  a non event here , just got moderate rain,  yawn

Saw that too straight after I'd finished doing the Look East forecast (10.35pm ish), and thought 'hmm, really?' A bit OTT IMO

 

 

Clearly not a 'lie' - there have been storms in the south west exactly as predicted.

 

I do believe some people have unrealistic expectations when it comes to predicting convective weather - perhaps they should learn a little more about it before criticising so much.

agreed!

Edited July 10, 2015 by staplehurst

[Stormyking]

Now for the main one from our storm chase on the isle of wight, this was taken by my mate too who also gave me permission

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Now for the main one from our storm chase on the isle of wight, this was taken by my mate too who also gave me permission

 

Magnificent photo! Take a bow son!!

[IanR]

Saw that too straight after I'd finished doing the Look East forecast, and thought 'hmm, really?' A bit OTT IMO

indeed, and then people like 'chapmanslade' making a condescending hint that I know nothing about convective conditions, its the bbc that ought to know better , the conditions are marginal,  and  they should report possible chance of local thunder , rather than plastering misleading graphics all over  claiming thunder has already moved north when it hasnt,   very poor,  and like you say ott, why say there has been thunderstorms tracking out of wales northeastwards when there clearly has not at that time VERY POOR FORECAST

Edited July 10, 2015 by IanR

[Southern Storm]

Good evening everyone!

 

I have just got back from taking some photos, of what can only be described as a bonus thunderstorm!

totally unexpected too!

 

I manage to capture some lovely bolts of lightning out at sea, in the direction of the Isle of Wight.

 

I was using a new camera and lens for the first time, so some of the shots are out of focus, one of the shots is fuzzy, but i left it in because it still looks cool, well I think so 

 

 

Edited July 11, 2015 by Christchurch storm nut

[IanR]

Nonsense. I have just watched the 21:09 forecast uploaded on their website and I still believe that the error is in your interpretation of the forecast rather than the forecast itself. Wigan has a thunder symbol possible at around 2am on that ( with most thundery outbreaks towards the NE and Scotland) and the radar prediction is very similar to what we are seeing currently.

the only nonsense was the bbc claiming thunderstorms tracking out of wales northwards,  nothing on the detectors at that time  

[Mokidugway]

indeed, and then people like 'chapmanslade' making a condescending hint that I know nothing about convective conditions, its the bbc that ought to know better , the conditions are marginal,  and  they should report possible chance of local thunder , rather than plastering misleading graphics all over  claiming thunder has already moved north when it hasnt,   very poor,  and like you say ott, why say there has been thunderstorms tracking out of wales northeastwards when there clearly has not at that time VERY POOR FORECAST

hope your not including me ...

[Stormyking]

Good evening everyone!

 

I have just got back from taking some photos, of what can only be described as a bonus thunderstorm!

totally unexpected too!

 

I manage to capture some lovely bolts of lightning out at sea, in the direction of the Isle of White.

 

I was using a new camera and lens for the first time, so some of the shots are out of focus, one of the shots is fuzzy, but i left it in because it still looks cool, well I think so   

Isle of Wight not White! haha

[Southern Storm]

Isle of Wight not White! haha

LOL Thanks for pointing that out 

 

English has never been one of my strong points!

Edited July 10, 2015 by Christchurch storm nut

[Convective]

Excellent photographs! Very high cloud bases on these storms, making for incredible 'Nevada' style photos.

[IanR]

hope your not including me ...

never   

[Sprites]

Last Friday 3rd July radio suffolk forecast at 5.50pm was "a dry night with patchy cloud", didnt mention an MCS.

Although plume setups are hard to forecast, as it can be dry, or intense storms. A tricky situation for the forecaster.

Great photos from the isle of wight.

Edited July 10, 2015 by Sprites

[Convective]

Oh god.. Here we go.. Again..

Screenshot_2015-07-10-23-39-19.png

Screenshot_2015-07-10-23-39-24.png

 

NMM also supporting this, although not quite as potent as GFS displays. Plenty of leeway, however.

[staplehurst]

Last Friday 3rd July radio suffolk forecast at 5.50pm was "a dry night with patchy cloud", didnt mention an MCS.

Although plume setups are hard to forecast, as it can be dry, or intense storms. A tricky situation for the forecaster.

Great photos from the isle of wight.

That would've been my colleague Jim at a guess, and as you say plumes are incredibly hard to get the detail right and models will have a limited use, never always right and can often spring surprises - trick is to stay ahead of the the game and to try and guess what might happen that the models aren't showing...

[Daniel*]

Now for the main one from our storm chase on the isle of wight, this was taken by my mate too who also gave me permission

 

Exceptional photo! Thor's fury in full display how lucky you are to be on IOW renowned for sun and storms this exemplifies Cape/Li is not pivotal there must have been a mechanism at play unseen by myself.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Basically lets be honest all forecasts wrong - but to the benefit of those on the IOW and to the south. Truly amazing pics!

[Richard Taylor]

Great shots of the lightning - thought I was looking at Nevada or Arizona!!

[Luke Best]

Gutted I didn't have the courage of my convictions and go to the clifftop yesterday evening. I was at my son's sports day in Bournemouth yesterday and was surprised by the amount of instability very high up in the atmosphere.

Great pictures by the way Christchurch Storm Nut!

[Homerr]

Stunning photos! I'm off on holiday to Weymouth this time next week and I'm hoping I get to see something while I'm down there, we're staying on Portland with a view straight off the cliff to the South & East so if anything kicks off I should be in a good position to see it!

 

I was expecting something to kick off around here and Watford yesterday, there was a lot of Ac in the sky, very humid and skies looked a little ominous but nothing came of it.

 

Although... what is this I see for tomorrow!!

 

 

Cheeky little thunderstorm icon hiding in there! 

Edited July 11, 2015 by Homerr

[IanR]

looks like I was right, no storms , bbc was adamant right up till midnight about storms flashing till dawn and clearing the north east ,also claiming storms ARE moving out of wales now tracking northeast  why say this when there was no sfreics detected 

 

get to the back of the class and face the wall bbc