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Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

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tomp456 Seasoned

tomp456

Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
Posted

post-14846-0-53335300-1437068638_thumb.jpost-14846-0-71349100-1437068663_thumb.j

View to South towards channel

View to North

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

I had my doubts this morning and after viewing the radar/sat combined with the models I am even more doubtful. I would love to be wrong though!

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

It's looking like a bust for SE England

Although I dont live in the SE, can you please extrapolate such a vague comment? 

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UKSupercell Enthusiast

UKSupercell

Posted
  • Location: East Hants
  • Weather Preferences: Supercells n snow
  • Location: East Hants
Posted

Hmmm, bear in mind guys, things didn't get going till about 10pm or so on July 3rd into 4th. Got a few hours yet still. 

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

It's looking like a bust for SE England

 

Hilarious I must say things went from nothing to big storms in a matter of minuets 2 weeks ago, its only just coming up to 7pm its looking great for the SE of England and the first signs of activity kicking off is happening right now to my North and East! 

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

I had my doubts this morning and after viewing the radar/sat combined with the models I am even more doubtful. I would love to be wrong though!

 

I reckon you'll hear thunder. You look in the prime location to me.

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted

Jesus the typical moaners and trolls out in full force tonight, go away your comments are not welcome in the technical thread go and cry elsewhere.

It's not even due till late overnight that if anything it happens then.

8pm-midnight looks like the golden hours.

Rant over seriously gets at me!

So are you in position yet?

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted (edited)

Agreed, skies don't look amazing, but only marginally short of "hell yeah"...

Agitated mid levels continuing though as I pointed out, some stratified mess too left over from earlier.

Re the 'feel' of the evening, I might remind folk that two weeks, right around this time and for the following couple of hours after, as the plume began to engage this prompted breezier and fresher feeling conditions. By 10:30 the breeze ebbed and humidity trickled up. In any event, our juice sits at mid levels (any storms will be elevated) so as long as the mid levels continue to look irritated, as they do, it remains game on.

If it gets to midnight and all still quiet, I might be able to entertain some murmurs of bust. FAR too early now, enequivocally and categorically!!!

Edited by Harry
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

If there is a significant delay in activity initiating, would this affect the risk areas?

Would it move them more East?

Potentially, juice according to most models is gone by around 03z, so it follows that if detonation is later, theoretically it'd be further north and east. Earlier detonation, further south and west

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Mesoscale Rising Star

Mesoscale

Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
Posted

 

The current thundery stuff in the far SE of England is associated with the leading edge of the EML (elevated mixed layer) and moisture plume - strong warm advection. Further to the west, deeper in the plume, there is some AcCas (altocumulus castellanus) drifting NE. The upper trough is evident on WV imagery moving across Devon at the moment - so we may see increased development within the AcCas area in the next couple of hours.

Severe threat does not look that high to me at present - despite a glancing blow from the EML I don't see especially steep mid-level lapse rates, and so perhaps not a great risk from hail. Furthermore, with elevated convection, the wind shear is fairly weak when considering the cloud-layer shear. Even so, some hi-res models simulate some gusty winds up to 50mph.

Highest chance of thunder appears to be across parts of central southern and south-east England, the SE Midlands, and E Anglia. Even within this area, most people will probably not have a storm - so before you ask, I can't tell you whether your town will have a storm! 

Qoute from Torro facebook

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Yup, pretty much as expected from Torro. Likely to be storms, SE quarter, not everyone will get one. What we all knew really lol :D

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dusk Apprentice

dusk

Posted
  • Location: Telford, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy
  • Location: Telford, Shropshire
Posted

Jesus the typical moaners and trolls out in full force tonight, go away your comments are not welcome in the technical thread go and cry elsewhere.

It's not even due till late overnight that if anything it happens then.

8pm-midnight looks like the golden hours.

Rant over seriously gets at me!

 

Vic_Bob_Handbags.jpg

 

Very interesting cloudscapes here, no mid-level clag, and very humid. It feels like it could produce something later........

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted (edited)

I'm on the fence here.

Literally - you get a better view from the fence :-P

Edit: Undulatus developing directly above me :-)

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Thunderbolt_ Experienced

Thunderbolt_

Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Author
Posted

Just as a quick reminder, if you would like to have a moan about your lack of storms, whether tonight or in the long term, could you please post in the following thread and keep this one open solely for convective discussion?

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83475-where-are-my-storms/

 

Cheers,

Scott

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

Took this across the channel at about 3.30pm as I was coming in to land at Gatwick.

That's beautiful...I love moments like that aloft!

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