Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[Harry]

Sorry Harry prob a lot further west than Croydon.

Figures...precip trying to pep up here, occasional heavier bursts. Nothing electrical though, definitely not the powder keg of two weeks ago.

Not even seen a flicker yet to my west.

[Rain123]

wow - anybody in the Guildford/Woking area? That cell is looking mean now .. Looks like a big updraft/possible hail core just sprung up on its southern side - 

Nope-there was no hail present. Round 2 looks like it should be arriving soon, so we can see about that one.

[Homerr]

Looks about a strike a minute to my south very bright and thunder about 20 seconds after. I would say right over Heathrow way tbh

[Norfolk Sheep]

wow - anybody in the Guildford/Woking area? That cell is looking mean now .. Looks like a big updraft/possible hail core just sprung up on its southern side - 

 

Just texted my sister to find out, although she's S of Guildford but radar shows more just about to move into the area

[UKSupercell]

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime - right by West Drayton bang saw that one! 

This is pretty tame viewing so far though compared to two weeks back! 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looks about a strike a minute to my south very bright and thunder about 20 seconds after. I would say right over Heathrow way tbh

It's a pretty sight for sure

[Evening thunder]

other sources ( a very respected forecaster) saying probably a number of surface based supercells now - keep the pics coming in!

Samos 

 

I have my doubts as lightning isn't that frequent compared to superells, and these were/are elevated showers and storms. Temps look too low for surface based storms considering 850hpa temps are nearly as high as surface temps atm.

[Homerr]

Starting to rare up a bit now

[UKSupercell]

Two more to my south-east! 

[Harry]

Ok have a vantage point now on the western storms...three flashes in fairly quick succession...make that four...no five...actually six....it's a hell of a lot more active than blitzortung is given it credit for!!! Nope, seven, eight...fiery minx!!!

[Biggin]

Figures...precip trying to pep up here, occasional heavier bursts. Nothing electrical though, definitely not the powder keg of two weeks ago.

Not even seen a flicker yet to my west.

I seen bout ten so far Edit just seen your above post.

Edited July 16, 2015 by Biggin

[dusk]

IOW cell, view to my SE whilst walking the dogs.

The Mothership has landed!!   

Taken with my phone, just wish I had my DSLR!!

 

For storm lovers, that is picture postcard stuff! Bloody lovely.

[Snowshine]

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION

High theta-w plume topped by modest EML (steepest lapse rates over SE England) is destabilising on its western side as an upper shortwave trough moves in from the SW. Thunderstorms have developed near the Isle of Wight and will continue to move/expand NNE through this evening. Other convection has formed across portions of the Midlands and may also become thundery as it continues to move NNE. With lapse rates contributing to elevated CAPE of around 800-1000 J/Kg amongst modest wind shear, storms may organise into a small MCS, especially across SE England/E Anglia. Merging cold pools may promote locally strong wind gusts, whilst the steep lapse rates bring the risk of marginally severe hail. At this stage, storm-scale rotation deemed unlikely and thus larger hail also seems unlikely. With this in mind, a discussion has been issued as opposed to a severe thunderstorm watch. 

 

Earlier they posted this on TORRO Facebook:

Highest chance of thunder appears to be across parts of central southern and south-east England, the SE Midlands, and E Anglia. Even within this area, most people will probably not have a storm - so before you ask, I can't tell you whether your town will have a storm!

 

I'm not expecting anything tonight, despite the Estofex warnings which I think are far too widespread and severe, honestly the storms are not of Level 2 Estofex standard at the moment

 

[samadamsuk]

Fair point Evening Thunder. Yeah you were right under that rain123! - very hard to tell whats going on with the lack of info in the uk, we need a US style mesoanalsys!

[UKSupercell]

Flickering every 20 seconds to my south-east. 

[Homerr]

Where are you uksupercell??

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well that photo came out better than expected ..

[stainesbloke]

Heavy rain here and a few rumbles, the rain sounds lovely

[Lincs Observation]

Large Area of ppn with some intense leading edge action just to my South East on the radar, no sign of light or noise at the moment will keep you posted

 

LO

[Cableguy]

wow - anybody in the Guildford/Woking area? That cell is looking mean now .. Looks like a big updraft/possible hail core just sprung up on its southern side -

Couple of miles East, it's really nothing special, sporadic high based lightning a bit of a letdown

[Homerr]

I think the one nearest me is elevated not as loud as it could be

[Harry]

Hope Torro are right...as they say, only appears to be the western edge of the plume destabilising at the moment.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

It's extremely elevated

Take a look how bloody high the cloud top is lol

[> mark]

Flickering every 20 seconds to my south-east.

Where in Bucks are you? Im very nr Marlow but not seeing much around here but then my living room looks SSW

[UKSupercell]

Woah big flash in Harrow/Ruislip direction! Maps got it! 

Where are you uksupercell??

Chalfonts area.