Storm & Convective Discussion - 20th August 2015 onwards

[A.J]

Must admit, I'd love to see a storm sometime today, but I won't be too miffed if I don't as I'll be quite happy to enjoy this short blast of heat, accompanied by the smell of a sizzling BBQ and a crate of my favourite beer happy days!

[mhielte]

You know the chances for storms are good when I shun Saturday football in favour of the weather! A frustrating and exciting afternoon of radar watching awaits 

 

I'm not sure I believe the GFS max temps for some central areas today. I'm thinking 24/25C at the most. Can't see the 28Cs for the north Mids. We are bright here though.

[Gordon Webb]

but the temps are much higher there to break the cap for indivdual thunder cells?   with just a mess of heavy rain over us, seems this is always the case 90 percent of the time, 

 

Might happen but most models don't favour it . thats not to say it won't happen though and even in the warning zones the probability is that most will not see anything and if they do it won't be one after the other as it sometimes can be as they will move north people may catch one on their journey north into northern england this evening and I hope there in northern england this evening as my mum don't like these and she's going out mid evening I hope they've UP NORTH by then

[IanR]

Ok its been shown before, but the ''supercell' over wigan and manchester on the first of july, that was giving sparks every second or so,  then moved into yorkshire,  hope we get that again   , but feel that was a once in a decade event for these parts

 

[Wivenswold]

How many times do people have to say it on here "Stop looking at graphics on weather forecasts and those stupid apps"?They are merely representative. Get a synoptic chart out and learn how to forecast or read some of the very good interpretations by some of the more senior members on this website. 

[A.J]

Ok its been shown before, but the ''supercell' over wigan and manchester on the first of july, that was giving sparks every second or so,  then moved into yorkshire,  hope we get that again   , but feel that was a once in a decade event for these parts

 

I never get bored of watching that video, it's an amazing bit of footage!

[Chris.R]

Ok its been shown before, but the ''supercell' over wigan and manchester on the first of july, that was giving sparks every second or so, then moved into yorkshire, hope we get that again , but feel that was a once in a decade event for these parts

and here I even missed those storms that day. It's been dire this year, it really has.

Hopeful for today, although no doubt it will all go east of me again.

Edited August 22, 2015 by Chris R

[William Grimsley]

There's already developments over Brittany now pushing NNE towards SW England and C S England. Just shows that destabilisation is already happening. Still hunting for Ac Cas though don't expect it to be forming (if at all) until this afternoon.

[Supacell]

I see the GFS has lowered the cape/LI on it's latest runs

 

I also have a question I see that the Cape/LI almost completely vanishes by 2100 considering it's still realtively high at 1800 what is the cause of this , is it just the sun going down of a combination of factors?

 

I won't try to answer the question in depth as to be honest I do not really know the answer, but surface based CAPE always reduces at night. Storms will either then die out completely or become elevated in nature (if you have CAPE holding on higher in the atmosphere). As for tonight we do see the storms that develop become elevated across Northern England for a time but generally they are dying in intensity after sunset and also moving westwards - places in the N and W extremes of the UK could see storm activity lasting right through the night. The attention then turns to areas further south with elevated thunderstorms along the cold front which should be pushing into SW England by morning - this then pushes NE tomorrow with some warm and sunny weather ahead of it.

 

As for this afternoon and evening - I am still unsure as to the highest risk areas but it would appear that the spine of N England is best favoured. I may actually be a little too far south in Derby with my bet being on Sheffield area northwards.

[Azazel]

London has a virtually nil risk today.

Shhhh i'm trying to use reverse psychology on the weather gods;)

[congerball]

I'm based in Harrogate, hoping they'll be something to chase later.

[IanR]

and here I even missed those storms that day. It's been dire this year, it really has.

Hopeful for today, although no doubt it will all go east of me again.

but surely you got to see a distant display like that unless it was veiled by low cloud,  seemed that storm formed over cheshire, moved into greater manchester and than marched into north yorks where it gave golf ball hail, it was one to remember with continuous long 'crackly' rumbling  from an insane amount of c to c lightning,   although it did give some close bomb like c to g stuff

 

I opened a bottle of wine, and just watched the show  any excuse

 

 

..... looking at my spelling today ,it seems I am on the wine again,  all corrected now 

Edited August 22, 2015 by IanR

[The PIT]

Good forecast by the Met this morning. Looks like they nailed it. Sun out here now so looking like a dry day until possibly later on this afternoon then light showers isolated chance of a storm. Got chance of being in the garden tomorrow morning as it may have dried out. Of course if a storm does turn up that's out of the window.

Edited August 22, 2015 by The PIT

[Speedway Slider]

The CAP.

Can someone explain how the temperature is worked out for the (Breaking of)? What dictates that temprature, and why does it vary so much?

Thanks in advance for the info, from the very learned people on this superb forum.....

[Chris K]

Uk MetO Yellow warning out for parts of the SW for possible thunderstorms followed by persistent heavy rain.

Edited August 22, 2015 by Chris K

[cheese]

The sun's coming out here.. let's get things started.

 

Good forecast by the Met this morning. Looks like they nailed it. Sun out here now so looking like a dry day until possibly later on this afternoon then light showers isolated chance of a storm. Got chance of being in the garden tomorrow morning as it may have dried out. Of course if a storm does turn up that's out of the window.

 

What??

Edited August 22, 2015 by cheese

[legritter]

Morning all ,well looking at latest forecasts and using sattelite info it looks like more areas will see some storms later today and later tonight .

but certainly apart from the storms this certainly looks like a very potent and newsworthy 48 hrs or so coming up .

hope many of us catch one especially those that have missed out so far this year ,even the possibility of some night time action to rattle the windows and send that soot down the chimney ,take care all 

[Paul]

In case you missed it earlier, Nick has issued a convective/storm forecast for today - inc the moderate risk of severe storms:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

 

[Lauren]

Ok its been shown before, but the ''supercell' over wigan and manchester on the first of july, that was giving sparks every second or so,  then moved into yorkshire,  hope we get that again   , but feel that was a once in a decade event for these parts

 

 

That's the one great thing about not being under a big storm, you can view it like that!

[Nick L]

Ok its been shown before, but the ''supercell' over wigan and manchester on the first of july, that was giving sparks every second or so,  then moved into yorkshire,  hope we get that again   , but feel that was a once in a decade event for these parts

 

 

You could change the title to a "US plains severe storm" and nobody would question it, incredible.

Edited August 22, 2015 by Nick L

[Allseasons-Si]

BoB's your uncle ,things certainly kicking off down there but i hope it doesn't create a MCS which will hinder the heat somewhat by cloudy sky's

 

i am currently rubbing my hands together that fast,that i am creating micro static charges,i hope that  there will be something bigger than that later on,good luck all

[Polar Maritime]

Yes that was one hell of a show..

[IanR]

You could change the title to a "US plains severe storm" and nobody would question it, incredible.

yes very noteworthy for this corner of england,

 

  bbc graphics look promising for this evening with animated lightning dancing all over the nw,  but not holding my breath after the last few complete fails on their part regarding that   ,  lets see   

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Thinking of perhaps hitting the A1 soon and be ready to intercept any action promptly.

Good luck to all.

[Weather-history]

The latest FAX chart for midnight tonight shows a tough just behind the warm front.