Storm & Convective Discussion - 20th August 2015 onwards

[ChezWeather]

Sun has broken through here and it sure feels warm, lovely day for a football match followed by a storm! 

[Stormyking]

Newport on the IOW is at 28.1'c and Wooten is also at 28!, loads and loads of AcCas around aswell!

[The PIT]

Latest forecast puts the chance of storms over north midlands then moving northward in the evening.

Sun has broken through here and it sure feels warm, lovely day for a football match followed by a storm! 

If the temps stay where they are and don't get any higher. Anything above the present values don't make pleasant viewing and tend to make for rubbish football as the players don't like the heat either. Against that if the temps stay where they are that reduces chances of a storm as well.

[Weather-history]

Patches of blue appearing and getting brighter all the time.

[mhielte]

Latest forecast puts the chance of storms over north midlands then moving northward in the evening.

If the temps stay where they are and don't get any higher. Anything above the present values don't make pleasant viewing and tend to make for rubbish football as the players don't like the heat either. Against that if the temps stay where they are that reduces chances of a storm as well.

 

Well I've got Sheff Wed vs Leeds on TV whilst I have lunch and if your analysis is anything to go by, the temperatures are already too high. Dreadful football 

[johnholmes]

The Doncaster Net Wx skew-t predict at06z is not far different from what I suggested using the Watnall 00z data, tops perhaps not quite as high.

I would be pretty surprised if those parts that get to 25-27C or more with Td of 14C+ some as high as 17+C do not get storms developing. One other thing to look for, well more than one, are very local effects, so

1) pressure falling increasing rising air

2)wind variations, convergent winds, much as the model showed yesterday although not necessarily in the places it might occur today

3)areas of high ground giving increased risk of air rising pretty quickly enhancing storm probabilities.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Stuff over France looking at lightning maps, you would think this was going to be a Kent clipper scenario!! Definite NE movement of the electrical activity rather than N.

Relying on stuff developing in the next few hours.

[johnholmes]

Stuff over France looking at lightning maps, you would think this was going to be a Kent clipper scenario!! Definite NE movement of the electrical activity rather than N.

Relying on stuff developing in the next few hours.

see my post above-its local not imported for your area today

[The PIT]

Well I've got Sheff Wed vs Leeds on TV whilst I have lunch and if your analysis is anything to go by, the temperatures are already too high. Dreadful football 

One of the few games I would hope both sides lose heavily.

Thanks John all eyes on the temperatures. No sign of any convection looking east as off yet just normal cumulus.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

see my post above-its local not imported for your area today

Fully aware buddy. Soon as I see developments, I could well be heading up your way this evening if things look good.

[johnholmes]

same here, I suspect T=28C may be the value, with Td 16+C that is the local starting point.

[Harry]

Extremely capped environment here in NW Kent/SE London. Beautiful cirrus in the sky earlier too.

Very warm but by no means humid.

I think anyone holding out hopes in the SE quarter of the UK will be disappointed.

I'm going to throw my dart at the map and pick somewhere between Derby, Telford and Liverpool as a focal point today...just a bit of fun going on a hunch.

[Mokidugway]

Heavy rain under leaden sky's ,need some insolation !!.

[Darren Bown]

I'm in Tatton Park today after giving up on a trip to Llandudno. Sun keeps breaking out and it's really humid. Not felt humidity like this in a long time,

[Lynxus]

Extremely capped environment here in NW Kent/SE London. Beautiful cirrus in the sky earlier too.

Very warm but by no means humid.

I think anyone holding out hopes in the SE quarter of the UK will be disappointed.

I'm going to throw my dart at the map and pick somewhere between Derby, Telford and Liverpool as a focal point today...just a bit of fun going on a hunch.

 

Horrid around here,

Been blazing sun all morning, 28.4c here now. Quite humid, no wind.

 

Its not a nice day. ( although its a nice day ) if you get what I mean... Quite uncomfortable.  (71% hum )

Edited August 22, 2015 by Lynxus

[Mokidugway]

Horrid around here,

Been blazing sun all morning, 28.4c here now. Quite humid, no wind.

 

Its not a nice day. ( although its a nice day ) if you get what I mean... Quite uncomfortable.

lol, wouldn't mind the option !!!!

[Nick F]

Stuff over France looking at lightning maps, you would think this was going to be a Kent clipper scenario!! Definite NE movement of the electrical activity rather than N.

Relying on stuff developing in the next few hours.

 

I doubt they will go that far east, 500mb steering flow is SSWly atm, though backing Sly to SSEly this evening and overnight as an upper shortwave trough swings in to the SW backing the upper flow.

 

Recent obs suggest some weak convergence across N Midlands and southern Pennines, vis satellite showing cloud breaks appearing on the eastern edge of the frontal cloud band too, just need those temps to up a bit too and we may see the cap break.

 

[Chris.R]

I really hope we get something today. About time we had a big storm, it's been 12 years.

if Man united can lose then that would be a start lol. :-)

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I doubt they will go that far east, 500mb steering flow is SSWly atm, though backing Sly to SSEly this evening and overnight as an upper shortwave trough swings in to the SW backing the upper flow.

 

Recent obs suggest some weak convergence across N Midlands and southern Pennines, vis satellite showing cloud breaks appearing on the eastern edge of the frontal cloud band too, just need those temps to up a bit too and we may see the cap break.

 

wind_1308.gifsat_1310.JPG

Cheers for that Nick. Certainly feeling the juice now I must say. Touching 28-29c here now.

[William Grimsley]

You want to see the sky here! It is fabulous! Ac Cas all over!

[TwisterGirl81]

Looks like Devon and Cornwall will get lots of rain going by bbc graphics for this evening and overnight, hopefully some thunderstorms imbedded for us

[William Grimsley]

Looks like Devon and Cornwall will get lots of rain going by bbc graphics for this evening and overnight, hopefully some thunderstorms imbedded for us

We should see some thunder embedded in this.

[Supacell]

26c/16c here now and feels humid. The sun is out with just some shallow cumulus scattered about. It does not look convective yet but it feels it.

 

I am looking at somewhere like the NW Midlands into the Peak District as good later this afternoon and then this expands north into Yorkshire and Cheshire areas.

Edited August 22, 2015 by Supacell

[Stormyking]

First shower has started firing up really quickly to my South in the Channel, Im keeping an eye on this, on Sat24 its gone up very quick

[Dami]

Here in hot bedford, i have a very strong breeze and the sky is popping with cumulus clouds. I dare say these will be storms later on.