Storm & Convective Discussion - 20th August 2015 onwards

[Supacell]

With another possible thundery episode upon us let's continue here with thoughts, forecasts and reports of all that is convective.

Please keep moans and groans about the lack of storms in the No Storms Club thread here:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/80888-the-no-storms-club-july-2014-onwards/

 

Or, we even have a "where are my storms" thread here

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83475-where-are-my-storms/

 

Please remember that nothing is 100% certain when weather is concerned and even less certain when forecasting thunderstorms. Unfortunately a lot of people will miss out where others may just get lucky. Let's try and remember that before blaming the forecasters.

The old thread including my latest thoughts on the outcome for this weekend can be found here, although this is subject to change over the next 48 hours I am sure.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83579-storm-convective-discussion-160715-onwards/page-100#entry3248511

 

Best of luck to all that want a storm!

[Rain123]

I am visiting relatives in new Milton at the moment, and it appears that the south coast has less of a chance looking at those charts.

[daveywoo1977]

My prediction is all the energy being released later than Saturday. Probably into Sunday with it initiating further East as the cold Front moves in. I would delay the front by 12 hours

[Nick L]

My prediction is all the energy being released later than Saturday. Probably into Sunday with it initiating further East as the cold Front moves in. I would delay the front by 12 hours

 

Why?

[sunnijim]

Why?

Never mind a delay,latest forecast would suggest after 'some wriggling' of the front 'out West' Friday and Saturday morning it then starts to head East during Saturday PM. Talk of storms fireing in SE England Saturday evening.

Graphics then show the thundery front clearing the East coast around Mid day Sunday.

As usual with a Scandi High in place,uncertainty over Eastward frontal progress in evidence.

[The PIT]

Carol did mention storms in the south east possibly reaching as far as yorkshire. The big question as it looks like the GFS is over doing the temps by a large margin away from the south east what will this do for the cape values???

[stainesbloke]

Carol did mention storms in the south east possibly reaching as far as yorkshire. The big question as it looks like the GFS is over doing the temps by a large margin away from the south east what will this do for the cape values???

Not necessarily. The front is actually forecast to move a bit westwards on Sat night before moving east again during Sunday, looking at the fax charts. All depends on how far N & W the clearer air from the SE flow ahead of the front gets...if it goes as as the fax charts suggest then GFS would be quite correct in their temp forecast.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I for one don't want storms this weekend thanks.. Mum is away and have a free house, 30-31 clear skies bring it on.. 

 

Hopefully the band Sunday also stays out west and Sunday can be another decent day 

[Supacell]

Met office have a weather warning out for thunderstorms but not in the same place as GFS is showing. Clearly still a lot of uncertainty with GFS favouring central and western areas but Met Office more SE Midlands down to the N London area.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Met office have a weather warning out for thunderstorms but not in the same place as GFS is showing. Clearly still a lot of uncertainty with GFS favouring central and western areas but Met Office more SE Midlands down to the N London area.

 

looks like they are going with the EURO4 

 

 

Tomorrow will all depend on how much sunshine.. I would assume thats why the met are going for it there to?? Given that the west will be pretty cloudy hence the cape might not break. 

 

That does not mean to say there won't be any heavy rain out west cause there will be.. LOTS!

[Summer Sun]

Met office yellow warning for isolated thunderstorms is out for the following areas

 

Lincolnshire, Northamptonshire

 

Essex, Thurrock, Bedford, Cambridgeshire, Central Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, Luton, Peterborough, Norfolk, Suffolk

 

Greater London

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1440198000&regionName=uk

[NUT]

I did say that even if we wouldn't get the thunder up here there was a chance of a real drenching now got to say even that looking unlikely infact Sunday now looking like it going to be a really warm/beautiful day

[The PIT]

Not necessarily. The front is actually forecast to move a bit westwards on Sat night before moving east again during Sunday, looking at the fax charts. All depends on how far N & W the clearer air from the SE flow ahead of the front gets...if it goes as as the fax charts suggest then GFS would be quite correct in their temp forecast.

Not during the night though unless we're going for new records.

[Speedway Slider]

Met office now showing lightning symbols for Leicester mid-afternoon, and mid-evening now....

But we're not in the warming area.......???

This forecast seems to be another forecasters nightmare, re location of the thunderstorms...

[sunnijim]

It seems to be the thunderstorm threat is for a small area on Saturday afternoon and early evening.

Sunday brings the threat of heavy rainfall for some rather than storms as the unstable hot air in the East now gets mixed out and sweapt away.

[Paul]

Nick's written a really in depth look at this weekend's setup - well worth a read:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6826;sess=

[knocker]

Indeed it is

[TwisterGirl81]

Please let there be torrential rain/thunderstorms here in Devon tomorrow and don't let the usual takers ie south central, south easters and Midlanders nab all the fun

[A.J]

Please let there be torrential rain/thunderstorms here in Devon tomorrow and don't let the usual takers ie south central and south easters nab all the fun

There's a pretty reasonable chance for you to see something over the next 48 hours or so

[Supacell]

It is a looking like an exciting few days coming up. I am off all weekend and so (as usual) have everything ready to go out and chase. Tomorrow late afternoon and evening looks pretty tasty through the central slice of the country for thunderstorms.

[Polar Maritime]

It is a looking like an exciting few days coming up. I am off all weekend and so (as usual) have everything ready to go out and chase. Tomorrow late afternoon and evening looks pretty tasty through the central slice of the country for thunderstorms.

 

Yes i noticed the BBC graphics look very good for Central Northern England. As you say a very interesting 48hrs coming up.

 

Warnings are out by the METO; http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&regionName=em&fcTime=1440198000

 

Issued at: 

1003 on Fri 21 Aug 2015

Valid from: 

1400 on Sat 22 Aug 2015

Valid to: 

2100 on Sat 22 Aug 2015

Isolated heavy, thunderstorms could break out on Saturday afternoon and last into the evening.

Whilst most will miss these, the public should be aware of the risk of localised surface water flooding, strong gusts, lightning and hail. Hot, unstable air coming up from France will coincide with daytime heating to bring the likelihood of temperatures into the low 30's Celsius locally on Saturday. This may trigger torrential thunderstorms, bringing the risk of more than 30 mm in less than an hour. The situation remains finely balanced and this alert will be updated on Saturday morning.

[Mokidugway]

Might be some interesting cloudsapes flying out of manchester on Sunday ..

[MattTarrant]

We have not had one decent thunderstorm this summer,quite surprising considering how many convective events have happened. Maybe this time??

[Costa Del Fal]

I have a feeling the met office warning for storms are for those more daytime heat driven.

However most modelling seems quite firm that the more organised potential will probably lie East Devon to Somerset through Herefordshire/Worcs/West Midlands and Powys towards Cheshire and central Northern England. The western parts of the East Midlands also at risk too.

Eagerly await tonight's estofex update.

[Nick F]

Two main areas for thunderstorms really tomorrow, main area across central and northern England to the east of the frontal boundary, where GFS shows some decent CAPE in a moist S to SWly flow given sufficient cloud breaks, these breaks most probably to the east of the Pennines.

 

Also, an increasingly unstable to surface temperature SEly flow across the SE England may see isolated storms develop as temperatures soar to the high 20s or even low 30s. GFS not really indicating a storm threat away from central/northern England, but UKMO Airmet forecasts going for isolated storms in the far SE, Saturday PM, presumably the convective trigger temp maybe reached to breach the cap in a few spots.

 

Best 0-6km and 0-1km shear indicated to be over northern England tomorrow, so best chance of severe weather here - including large hail, damaging wind gusts and even one or two tornadoes not ruled out given lower LCLs here and veering winds in the lower-levels. Any storms towards SE have less shear to utilise, but may bring a risk of flooding.