Model Output Discussion 18z 30/09/15

[knocker]

It looks like the El Nino will sustain through the Winter, and as there is currently good coupling between the sea temp and atmosphere, there is a strong signal for the upstream pattern this coming winter.

 

Latest advice on El Nino: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

 

As this is one of the strongest on records, a signal for a strong +EPO is likely. That without other drivers would more than likely translate to a milder DJF for Europe. A good webcast from WSI goes over this:

 

https://wsi.wistia.com/medias/j27zqgbtom

 

It will be interesting if such a strong El Nino can be overridden by other factors; QBO, Strat, sun spots?

 

Excellent video IDO thanks.

[Captain Shortwave]

Uppers are not fundamental any continental flow will be chilly as the continent is colder this year.

To add welcome back IDO

The GFS is going for low to mid teens, so chilly but not exactly ground-breaking in terms of cold.

That said, the first real chance for some widespread frosts under clear skies next week;

 

Northern and western areas favoured due to lighter winds

 

Uncertainty regarding the later part of next week with the operationals giving mixed signals, some stay anticyclonic, some break conditions down from the west/north west whilst others pull a cold pools towards the south east of the UK.

Todays day 6 charts

 

GFS

 

UKMO

 

Nothing zonal showing to be honest, the opposite seems to be true with an amplified pattern giving rise to sharpening troughs and the resulting cut-off lows. This looks quite difficult to resolve at the moment so it is a case of hold fire beyond the middle of next week.

[Scorcher]

Uppers are not fundamental any continental flow will be chilly as the continent is colder this year.

To add welcome back IDO

 

Yes it's cool as I said, but not cold, it will still reach the mid teens by day in many places. The coolest air doesn't reach us, plus the North Sea is relatively warm at this time of year which will moderate the easterly flow.

[nick sussex]

If you're looking for some exciting weather then tonights output will leave you half asleep! However if you don't like wind and rain then you'll be very happy.

 

Its not till day ten that the GFS tries to cut back the jet into the UK which might bring some rain and more unsettled conditions however the high is likely to topple at this point so this could be shortlived.

 

Of interest to coldies is the cutback/ cold ne flow/ then toppling ridge scenario. That outcome is a possibility given the overall set up especially with the PV chunk setting up in ne Canada, the actual jet coming out of the ne seaboard of the USA could still be more amplified which then would make that scenario more likely.

 

Overall not a bad outlook for the next ten days, some sunshine and frost and it should feel quite seasonal.

[MR EXTREMES]

I must say pretty intense high pressure dont look like this new burst of heights will help the atlantic win threw either.

and not just one model very colourful indeed so nothing balmy pretty dry but rather cool and heights looking like lowering to our east if we could get heights to stick out to the west of the uk october could well be a neg cet month.

 

with the atlantic cold pool dragging cooler nw flow still chilly.

 

Edited October 9, 2015 by emotional rollercoaster

[Daniel*]

Yes it's cool as I said, but not cold, it will still reach the mid teens by day in many places. The coolest air doesn't reach us, plus the North Sea is relatively warm at this time of year which will moderate the easterly flow.

You are right but I'm speaking relative to October not January? Less moderation more so the further south/east you are with the southeast bearing the brunt of nothing much to be truthful a tame chilly flow.

8/10/15

Hmm interestingly North Sea is a few degrees above average 1-2C? with that clash of relatively warm sea against the cold land its good ingredients for convection. The North Atlantic SST were also in positive territory then back in 2010 some parts of Eastern England were pummelled.

However, the North Sea and polar continental air from Scandinavia might produce a very similar effect along the North Sea coast of the United Kingdom. For example, on January 10-20, 1987 very cold polar continental air produced extremely cold temperatures of -5C (23F) and exceptionally heavy snowfall around the Thames Estuary and East Anglia. Leigh-on-Sea reported 44cm (17in) of level snow following intense convection over the relatively warm North Sea.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/Lake-effect-snow.htm

[phil nw.]

It looks like the El Nino will sustain through the Winter, and as there is currently good coupling between the sea temp and atmosphere, there is a strong signal for the upstream pattern this coming winter.

 

Latest advice on El Nino: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

 

As this is one of the strongest on records, a signal for a strong +EPO is likely. That without other drivers would more than likely translate to a milder DJF for Europe. A good webcast from WSI goes over this:

 

https://wsi.wistia.com/medias/j27zqgbtom

 

It will be interesting if such a strong El Nino can be overridden by other factors; QBO, Strat, sun spots?

Hi IDO,

Whilst your post is informative it would have been more suitable in say the Winter  thread rather than here.

This to avoid the thread going off in different directions.

We really like to keep this thread based around the daily model outputs.

 

I will leave it here now but maybe bear in mind for future reference?

 

Cheers

Edited October 9, 2015 by phil nw.

[Frosty.]

I thought Gfs 12z ended on a very interesting note, did anyone else think so?  i'm thinking if it had gone a little further, we would have seen our first cold blast of the season soon after, I know it's all deep FI but the gfs has been showing this quite a few times recently in low res and I think once the anticyclonic spell ends we will see a change from the northwest and i'm hoping at least some of us see our first snow fly before the end of october, it's happened before so why not!  

[knocker]

The GEFs anomalies tonight can be summed up by Atlantic blocking for the whole run. The UK is situated under the eastern quadrant of the HP so gentle northerlies with around average temps or a touch below. It would appear that NOAA isn't going to disagree too much with that. Be interesting to see whether the ecm plays around  with the trough in the ext period.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited October 9, 2015 by knocker

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening Everyone! Whilst the outlook remains quiet and rather chilly across the Nation into next week ,there will be lots of "Flies in the Ointment"  The models are really messy for detail at the moment thanks to ex tropical storms giving Iberia and southern Europe a real soaking! If You look at the charts below from ecm and gfs  at T+168hrs for example. they are completely different!  Interesting viewing , If youre looking for clear gin skies across the nation .forget it!

[knocker]

Not that I think there is any point on comparing two charts over on run seven days down the line but if you move on 24hrs they aren't that different considering the time frame.

 

[bluearmy]

Not a problem I will desist posting a summary in future as others seem to agree with you.

That's wasn't the point of my post knocks. I have the luxury of being able to view it if I want to. Others don't and I'm sure they would like to know what it shows.

[knocker]

That's wasn't the point of my post knocks. I have the luxury of being able to view it if I want to. Others don't and I'm sure they would like to know what it shows.

 

Okey dokey blue.

[IDO]

Good coupling between strat and trop at the moment and the D16 strat heights suggest that during the next couple of weeks we lose the HLB as the PV becomes a bit more defined, though still looks like a MLB in our region is viable:

 

D16:  Current:  D10: 

 

I assume that the MJO and other indices are currently not drivers at the moment. So October looks settled for week 2-3 and possibly longer.

[knocker]

Levi Cowan is suggesting the MJO will amplify again at the end of the month. The end of the ecm ext hinting at a return to zonality as the block weakens and drifts west and a possibility of a trough just to the east of the UK.

[Catacol]

A brief overview of the latest EC32

 

On Thursday 15^th it has the swathe of high pressure Scandinavia to mid Atlantic but also an upper low northern Europe that could impact the southern half of the UK but it will be very transitory if it does and I suspect it is unlikely.

 

It then proceeds to develop the mid Atlantic block and replaces the Scandinavian HP with a trough stretching down into Europe until the 21^st  with temps a little below average.

 

From there on in it quickly weakens the block and develops the Greenland trough which by the end of the month sees the Atlantic  in control with depressions sweeping in the westerly flow with temps around average.

 

The Atlantic then remains the major player until the 9^th of November.

 

Summary

 

High pressure in charge until around the 22^nd  where after the ubiquitous mid Atlantic trough enters the fray heralding a pattern change to Atlantic domination.

 

For those who worry about EC32 summaries, this is what was posted on 29th Sept for the EC summary by knocker:

 

"Latest broad overview of the EC32 update.

 

Next week, as already indicated is trough dominated so some very unsettled weather interspersed with the odd good day. What can I say about the rest of October. Nothing sinister apparently lurking in the woodshed and essentially a trough to our NW exerting the main influence with a general westerly flow that will bring systems probably running NE across the UK. So generally unsettled, particularly in the NW, but interspersed with transitory settled periods. Temps around average. Still on track for the early blooming dafs."

 

A load of tosh - couldnt be more wrong for the bulk of October. Take these updates with a huge pinch of salt.

[davehsug]

Your point being? They're not put forward with any agenda or bias, just a straightforward report of what it shows.

[Nouska]

The models are suggesting a return of zonality but it looks like cool zonality - mayber much cooler than the usual zonality with the cold SST anomaly. I'm never sure if I'm reading these IMO Z500 charts correctly but the ECM 360 hour mean looks to have quite low thickness and the 850 temps are below zero to the north of England.

 

 Maybe a reprise of last winter's polar maritime flow to see out autumn and perhaps a good start for the Scottish hills.

 

 

 

[Catacol]

Your point being? They're not put forward with any agenda or bias, just a straightforward report of what it shows.

 

My point being that many people see the EC32 as too significant - whereas in fact the EC32 is frequently off target. 

 

I thought my point was therefore pretty clear - I'll try and spell it out for you more obviously next time.

[fat chad]

Lets keep it polite chaps... Without the sarcasm. For what it's worth, since I have been lurking around here for the last 5 year's, I have noticed the EC32 has not always been consistent... I think that was the point that daveshug was trying to make.

[DR(S)NO]

My point being that many people see the EC32 as too significant - whereas in fact the EC32 is frequently off target. 

 

I thought my point was therefore pretty clear - I'll try and spell it out for you more obviously next time.

I would have thought that many of the charts posted on this forum are " frequently" off target even at relatively short time periods.

This is the Model Output Discussion forum....as such, one would have thought that any Model Output should be available for discussion.

[knocker]

The GFS can be quickly summed up this morning by HP dominated once again. From Thursday the 15th the HP becomes centred just to west of the UK and there it remains until the 24th. So quiet cool and quite pleasant.

Chart weatherbell

 

[MR EXTREMES]

still no zonal onslaught and pocket of heights building all over the place eastern Europe has cold lid holding coldish air in place all the models broadly have heights either to the west of us or over us.

 

settled for sometime really is showing signs of being a blocking atumn so far with a below October cet still up for grabs.

 

 

 

the 192 ecm looks like it could lead to a win win situation heights trying to build into scandi area or pivot into Greenland area either way slightly below average and pretty settled.

 

the low pressure at the southern point of Greenland its where that goes could be interesting further on.

 

the 216 ecm chart has that little low moving in the right direction but another hot on its tail this is not a bad run as heights to our west is a strong robust high so when the second low pressure moves threw southern Greenland it could make way for heights to build further into Greenland

 

ok so we have our northerly and lower pressure to our east well I cant wait for this evenings ecm 168 to see if we can see this coming into a closer timeframe atleast something to watch.

 

 

09/10 springs to mind although earlier in the season.

most likely change but exciting stuff.

 

lots going on in and around the arctic ive noticed how the heights are much more robust this year not the fleeting visits and retreat like last year.

 

I don't buy into the twitter hype of el nino will bring blow torch sw flow through this winter the early signs are there.

of coarse this could all change but I don't see the vortex being a powerhouse this year,

 

the ecm is the most exciting run but the other top models are not a million miles from he same idea be interesting to see which model will be the closest to the actual outcome

 

 

Edited October 10, 2015 by emotional rollercoaster

[knocker]

The GEFS anomalies this morning have the Atlantic block in place to just about the end of the run.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited October 10, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op run is anticyclonic from start to finish, not warm like we had in the recent settled spell but in the sunshine it should feel pleasant enough, max temps into the low teens celsius across the south and not even that in the north and where skies clear overnight, cold with slight frosts, especially in the north and west with mist and fog patches where winds are light.

Edited October 10, 2015 by Frosty.