Model Output Discussion 18z 30/09/15

[knocker]

well you never turn your back on a hurricane

Still holding strength as it races north-east towards cold waters

 

Looking at the track, i fail to see how this will not effect some parts of the Uk, in some way

 

https://stormpulse.com/hurricane-joaquin/

 

It's quite possible it will just touch on the far west but there is still a fair bit of uncertainty on the final track.

Edited October 6, 2015 by knocker

[Met4Cast]

It's quite possible it will just touch on the far west but there is still a fair bit of uncertainty on the final track.

Where can I find those charts?

[knocker]

Where can I find those charts?

 

Here but I'm not sure whether they are in the freely available category or not.

http://models.weatherbell.com/

 

If not you can try here

 

https://twitter.com/HurricaneModels

Edited October 6, 2015 by knocker

[Cloud 10]

Updated 96 hr fax sends the remains of Joaquin towards the near continent with a chilly SE flow for the UK.

 

 

 

The 18z gfs takes it up the western side of the UK and up towards Iceland.

Edited October 6, 2015 by Cloud 10

[knocker]

Morning campers

 

The GFS this morning has Joaquin hitting the buffers of the high pressure at 12z Saturday and turning south east. Option 2 with the METO, A quick summary of the whole run is HP dominated albeit with a certain amount of mobility involved.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

Joaquin model tracks

Edited October 7, 2015 by knocker

[bluearmy]

I think it's safe to say that Joaquín will not affect the UK in any way other than a standard Atlantic depression. It could trundle past the nw, stall to the west or drift off to our South. if it does actually make it as far as the UK, it won't have much of a topical nature left in its circulation. interesting that it still keeps the models guessing whether it's going se or nw.

On another note, the vortex looks likely to be stretched somewhat by mid October with a chunk establishing in the kamkatchka area. (Broadly).

That will probably lead to a mean Alaskan ridge downstream and subsequent East American trough. if the low heights go from Greenland as the vortex is disrupted, then that trough likely to be only e Canadian.

Currently keeping most of my attention on up how well the new gefs and ECM extended agree by day 14. would be good to have a gefs that was as good as the extended eps.

[knocker]

Currently keeping most of my attention on up how well the new gefs and ECM extended agree by day 14. would be good to have a gefs that was as good as the extended eps.

 

Judging from many recent comments by American forecasters on twitter they share those sentiments blue.

[knocker]

Not a huge difference with the GEFS anomalies this morning with HP remaining the main player with temps a tad below or average

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Good lord!!!

Edited October 7, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[Yarmy]

GEFS is upgrading next week, isn't it? Is it available in parallel at the moment?

[knocker]

GEFS is upgrading next week, isn't it? Is it available in parallel at the moment?

 

Yes it's been available for some time. Wxbell have been running it but not quite in real time although others have I believe. The 18z anomaly for 18z

Charts courtesy weatherbell

Edited October 7, 2015 by knocker

[MR EXTREMES]

few charts to show the incomming weather whats noticable is that the ex hurricaine is a little futher south and west eventually looking likely just to fizzle out.

there after not much sign of anything dramatic cool nights plesant days.

here are some charts and as you can see a fair few of the postage stamps have ex hurricaine not showing as a major problem.

although even at this range things can change but unlikely when seeing the overall pattern and progression.

 â€‹

 

as you can see on the gefs beyond the ex hurricaine that's when the large scatter starts....

I do not believe the zonal train will take over anytime soon.

 

chart number 2 being the odd one out......

[Yarmy]

Yes it's been available for some time. Wxbell have been running it but not quite in real time although others have I believe. The 18z anomaly for 18z

Charts courtesy weatherbell

 

Thanks.

[Gibby]

For those interested here's today's report link:-

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

[Singularity]

Some brisk easterlies are now looking very likely for the south this weekend and for at least part of next week. Temps look a bit mediocre but nothing too chilly for the most part, just a nagging wind.

 

Further north the outlook features lighter winds, with a better feel by day but a higher risk of frost overnight.

 

All in all, very benign. The only real suggestion of much change again comes from ECM in the 8-10 day range, as the jet stream kicks up a gear with a brief surge of westerlies flattening the high pressure. GFS maintains an unusually weak, meandering jet stream for the most part, with high pressure incredibly dominant - hardly any rain for most parts throughout the 16 days covered by the det. run!

 

Not a lot of rain spikes in the ensembles, even:

 

 

...and even ECM's westerly push looks less convincing this morning, with signs that the jet could quickly return to a meandering state.

[johnholmes]

For those interested here's today's report link:-

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

 

copied below

THIS PAGE PROVIDES THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE

WORLD'S MOST POWERFUL SUPER WEATHER COMPUTERS

CALCULATING THE UK WEATHER FOR UP TO 15 DAYS

AHEAD OF THE PRESENT

UPDATED DAILY

 

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON WEDNESDAY OCT 7TH 2015

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION  Low pressure will move away out into the North Sea today followed by a ridge of High pressure moving East into the UK today and tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW LYING UK AND NORTHERN HEMISPHERE There is currently no snow lying in the UK with the freezing level at just under 5000ft in Western Ireland and close to 8000ft in eastern England.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable with a little rain at times but with some lengthy dry and settled periods developing again too especially later.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows he flow split to the North and South of the UK for the next few days. The flow becomes weak next week and gradually realigns well to the NW of Britain before diving South across the UK in Week 2 in association with Low pressure to the East and NE.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows the weather improving now as High pressure builds across the UK which first to the East and NE of the UK before High pressure in the Atlantic takes control in Week 2 with a chilly North or NW flow towards the end of the run. Rainfall amounts look very limited for all of the UK throughout the period of the run today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

THE GFS CONTROL The theme of the GFS Control Run shows much very similar conditions with High pressure developing as I type and persisting in one shape or form across or near the UK until towards the end of Week 2 when the Atlantic breaks through with some rain and wind.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters in 14 days has a majority bias towards High pressure lying close to or to the West and SW of the UK with fine weather for most of the UK.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= 

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure building across principally over the North over the weekend and start to next week with fine and dry weather there while the South comes perilously close to being influenced by Low pressure to the South with a chilly Easterly flow and the risk of some rain in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning shows High pressure developing to the NE of the UK with an east or SE flow developing across the UK. Low pressure lies to both the South and NW early next week with most of the rain bearing troughs associated with this held mostly at bay at the 5 day time point.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 

GEM GEM also builds High pressure back across the UK from the North-east later this week with some fine and settled weather for many for a time. Then through next week the trend is for High pressure to decline slowly and Low pressure with rain to edge up across the UK from the SW towards the end of the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

NAVGEM NAVGEM looks a lot like UKMO this morning with North is best in regard to fine and settled weather as a ridge of High pressure persists across these areas next week. Meanwhile Low pressure to the South may be close enough to being a keen easterly breeze, cloud and some rain at times up into the far South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM this morning has the building of High pressure too through the end of the week and weekend. the axis of this is a little further South than the rest of the output maintaining fine weather for all in light winds. Later in the run the ridge relaxes South and allows Atlantic westerly winds and rain to slowly feed down from the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night indicates the UK lying in slack pressure between High pressure both to the SW and NE with the weather likely to be mostly quite benign across the British Isles but with some rain at times towards the North and West and perhaps elsewhere in more isolated form.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is still good agreement now on a largely fine and benign spell of weather developing again across the UK from later this week once the demise and final resting place of ex hurricane Joaquin is established.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM tying with UKMO at 99.5 pts with GFS closely behind at 99.3 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.0 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 95.8 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 87.8 pts to UKMO at 86.8 pts then GFS at 83.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 58.3 pts over GFS's 50.1 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 35.2 pts to 33.3 pts. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   The models have finally settled on the final resting place of ex hurricane Joaquin and it seems we can now rest assured that it will remain out of harms way to both the NW and South while the UK settles into a period of benign and quiet weather as High pressure builds from both the NE and SW. Low pressure looks like remaining to the South of the UK for quite some time delivering a chill Easterly breeze across the South with some output indicating that Low pressure could be close enough to give a little rain to Southernmost parts. then in the latter stages of the two week period High pressure seems to hold on as the most governing factor across the UK, maybe slipping a little in dominance later as the Atlantic finally wakes up again. Nevertheless, once more today there are no major weather problems looking likely over the coming few weeks and a lot of the weather for outdoor activities look's generally OK given the time of year it is.

WORST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

I was struggling to find a particularly bad chart today but the GEM 10 day chart would ensure a cool and wet day for much of the UK especially the South as Low pressure moves up from the SW.

BEST CHART OF THE DAY 00z RUN

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

Contrastingly, spoilt for choice in the best chart series with the GFS 144hr chart representative of many as High pressure is shown well established over the North of the UK with fine and settled weather for all.

Next update from 09:00 Thursday Oct 7th 2015

 

Quick question Gibby, took me 20 secs, so why do you not do the same please, rather than the link to your web site?

[MR EXTREMES]

well frosty chilly weather is back on the 6z!

ex hurricaine slips se and dies out into the spain area.

 

and pretty frosty from sunday Monday through good chunk of next week with lower uppers moving in from the east and at times from the northeast for awhile into the later stages heights move back in.

 

very nice indeed not much rain either although any frosts could be at a minimal if we get cloudy easterly.

 

hoping to see in future runs heights to out east and north east getting dam cold into scandi and eastern Europe that pretty much nailed,

or lower heights to our ne with a surge of heights up into Greenland area.

 

although the zonal train does look to be wanting to attack but not really getting anywhere fast.

so gone is knockers dafs and warm plume for now!

 

and frosty has made friends with the gfs 6z as he showed yesterday 6z another close northerly most likely will effect scandi area.

 

overall theres certainly a nippy feel from weekend through into next week with possible colder uppers make there way into southeastern parts of the uk but of coarse not majorly cold uppers.

 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

interesting that gfs has easterly southeasterly then a possible arctic blast and its come bit closer in timeframe and corrected futher west coming very close to the uk.

 

 

[phil nw.]

Well it looks like ex Hurricane Joaquin will continue to weaken and remain to our south west in the coming days as the blocking high extends across the UK splitting the jet north and south.

 

The situation by next Monday from the GFS and UKMO

 

 

some colder air continuing to feed around the block into Scandinavia,Russia and E.Europe and with the high just far enough north to perhaps give that easterly feed a bit of an edge across the far south in the days to come.

Looking pretty dry and fairly quiet then next week with much of any active weather to our north and south.

The question is how long will this mid-latitude blocking hold as the northern jet starts to show it's hand across the top.

The latest ens runs seem to have positive heights through next week and maybe a bit longer.

 

 

[Hairy Celt]

 

Quick question Gibby, took me 20 secs, so why do you not do the same please, rather than the link to your web site?

 

Possibly because the reformatting (to make it easier on the eye) takes a bit longer than 20 secs?

[knocker]

This evening's GEFS are still promoting the same theme. The 6-10 has HP Scandinavia and ridging from the south west with LP Canada. So some fine quiet weather with temps a tad below average, which is okay as the dafs like a bit of nip in the air at this time of year. In the 11-15 period there is less of a connection between the two HP zones as the Scandinavian block weakens and there Azores HP nudges a little SW establishing a more westerly zonal flow and average temps. ( Is that a northerly icy blast I see skulking in the woodshed?)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited October 7, 2015 by knocker

[ANYWEATHER]

That will feel cold....

[Met4Cast]

Encouraged by the amount of cold uppers already filtering into Russia/Eastern Europe and indeed throughout the rest of Europe too, though less cold here

 

 

Usually we're saying "Europe is too warm for anything meaningful to happen" but this year seems to be different thanks to that high pressure over Scandi and a relatively quiet Atlantic not pumping warm air Eastwards continuously. Certainly going to help build up the snow cover to our East.

[Singularity]

Yawn.

 

Settled for the foreseeable and still a risk of a nagging easterly here in the south next week, although the GFS det. runs have backed off from that now.

 

Interesting signals emerging for mid-October as the polar vortex attempts to establish in the vicinity of Siberia with a cross-polar high attempting to extend through Greenland to connect with a mid-Atlantic ridge, but also with a trough over Canada threatening to break it all down before it really gets started.

 

ECM's +240 det. chart as an example:

 

 

Oddly reminiscent of last winter's struggles isn't it? Yet we have many drivers in opposite states to last year so we should expect to see different setups evolving in a month or two... for better or worse. That's all I'll dare say about the winter in this thread.

 

Looking at the example chart above a second time, I'm struck by the lack of 'flat' patterns anywhere in the N. Hemisphere, as in regions across which the jet and hence the 546 dam line aren't wiggling about like a distressed python.

[nick sussex]

Some tasty wintry looking charts for winter but October wise its a case of a bit too early. A cool down however looks like lasting quite a while with an easterly flow.

 

Towards day ten the ECM and GFS toy with some colder air heading se but questionable whether that will edge further west to effect the UK and more likely this will drop down into Scandi.

 

I think there would need to be more upstream amplification to help direct that colder flow into the UK. The best thing from the charts is the lack of wind and rain which I'm sure will be welcome, theres plenty of time for that!

[knocker]

The ecm anomaly  is on the same page as the GEFS with weakening Scandinavian block, ridging from the south west and low over Canada. This continues into the ext period with the HP influence over the UK coming from the south west not the NE. Thus the return of fairly slack westerlies with temps still below average but the colder air shunted far away to the east.

Edited October 7, 2015 by knocker