Winter 2015/16

[johnholmes]

this is probably appropriate in this thread?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

[MR EXTREMES]

09/10 rerun i think is likely very similar atmospheric conditions to 09/10 and solar activity dropping like a stne weather far side sunspots return with avengance of coarse possible but we had a double peak in solar output so possibly into a steady decline.

 

i think where have good convective arctic weather at some point threw winter to with cold pool water or neg amo could help to give nice contective snowfall.

 

its certainly looking better than the last few years that for sure especially for us snow starved southerners and southeast  

[mountain shadow]

Seems similar to the Accuweather forecast John.

 

Why can't the UK/NW Europe get this kind of stuff?

Edited October 8, 2015 by mountain shadow

[Singularity]

CFSv2 seems to be taking the 'super El Nino' response over Europe as far as it possibly can... with the huge positive height anomaly preventing what would otherwise be quite a tasty February pattern in the multi-run means. The March pattern is starting to look pretty chilly though.

 

If there truly is momentum toward more in the way of high-latitude blocking in February (all ready starting to show up in the multi-run means, in fact even January hints at it now) then I'd expect to see the +ve heights anomaly over Europe suppressed further south, toward the Mediterranean.

 

 

It is interesting that although 2009/10 doesn't qualify as a strong or even east-Pacific (i.e. classic) El Nino, it is the only standing example with an El Nino of some kind occurring alongside cold SSTs in the N. Atlantic and a sea ice extent minimum close to 4.5 million square kilometers. The plummeting solar activity may also be another step in the right direction, though it can hardly be compared with where we were in 2009, which was in the latter stages of an unusually long, strong solar minimum.

[Met4Cast]

The massive cold pool building across Russia/Scandi only looks likely to intensify over the next couple of weeks and we should really start to see snow cover increasing fairly rapidly too.

 

It's getting me rather excited. Last winter we didn't have that cold pool to tap into and this year it's already becoming established and embedded across the continent. Should a pattern develop in a months time that allows us to tap into that cold pool, it'll be one heck of a cold spell!

[Liam J]

Nice ECM tonight shame we aren't into late autumn/winter yet, I'm sure the majority on here would be pretty excited over charts like this... No sign of the PV and Atlantic train setting up just yet... Still plenty of time though!! 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

 

 

[Man With Beard]

Hello all - spent a little time looking at various variables this evening and, though scientist I am far from being, my early hunch is that the coming winter might be a below average one - slightly. Sea temps in the Atlantic are down - checking back in time, a lot of below average winters had coolish sea temps. El-Nino is off the chart, and many cool winters had El-Ninos. SAI looks like it's going to rise (early days for that one). The AO was very favourable throughout the summer - often a correlation with cold winters. So lots of signals for something cooler. Met-Office long-range models appear to be on the cool side of average too (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob). Westerly QBO flies in the face of this though, so not all signals are favourable.

[Singularity]

One thing I've noticed over the years is that when background drivers are favourable for blocking scenarios, the models tend to under-amplify the pattern beyond 6 or 7 days range, whereas then the drivers are unfavourable, they over-amplify.

 

Back in 2009/10 it was almost guaranteed that blocking highs and an absence of the usual westerly flow would persist for longer than originally modeled.

 

We seem to be seeing that sort of thing in the model output at the moment, though not as dramatic as it could be back then - a consequence of GFS having been upgraded I suspect. If anything it's ECM doing more of the corrections at the moment, with a strong burst of westerlies first put back by several days and now toned down to the point where it's unable to displace blocking highs from our vicinity.

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

 

If there truly is momentum toward more in the way of high-latitude blocking in February (all ready starting to show up in the multi-run means, in fact even January hints at it now) then I'd expect to see the +ve heights anomaly over Europe suppressed further south, toward the Mediterranean.

 

 

 

Interesting you should mention that. The last Glosea run showed just that....HP supressed down towards the med and HP situated around Iceland.

[mpkio2]

Nice ECM tonight shame we aren't into late autumn/winter yet, I'm sure the majority on here would be pretty excited over charts like this... No sign of the PV and Atlantic train setting up just yet... Still plenty of time though!! 

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

ecm2.gif

If  only we were in the middle of Winter!! This thread would be going nuts, no doubt!

Things seeme to be falling into place, slowly and gradually. And llike Daniel Smith pointed out, we have a building cold pool to our North-East over Scandi/Russia!

 

Although, I must admit, I am a little anxious  that we haven't seen any westerlies and the models are modelling (wat?) alot of high pressure around our vicinity. I like to see westerlies in Autumn and an AO+ signature. Why? Well, usually when we get a blocking high in Autumn and no sign of westerlies, they all seem to kick in when Winter comes around and we hardly see any HLB!

 

So, I would rather we get all westerlies out of the way *NOW* so that it gives HLB more of a chance when Wiinter comes. It will just be our luck that we get HLB now in Autumn and then won't reapear at all during Winter.

 

I know the weather doesn't act like this, but I'll jjust feel more relaxed and rest assured.

[Cheshire Freeze]

If  only we were in the middle of Winter!! This thread would be going nuts, no doubt!

Things seeme to be falling into place, slowly and gradually. And llike Daniel Smith pointed out, we have a building cold pool to our North-East over Scandi/Russia!

 

Although, I must admit, I am a little anxious  that we haven't seen any westerlies and the models are modelling (wat?) alot of high pressure around our vicinity. I like to see westerlies in Autumn and an AO+ signature. Why? Well, usually when we get a blocking high in Autumn and no sign of westerlies, they all seem to kick in when Winter comes around and we hardly see any HLB!

 

So, I would rather we get all westerlies out of the way *NOW* so that it gives HLB more of a chance when Wiinter comes. It will just be our luck that we get HLB now in Autumn and then won't reapear at all during Winter.

 

I know the weather doesn't act like this, but I'll jjust feel more relaxed and rest assured.

 

In most of the 'classic' winter years that I've looked at, there was evidence that the PV never truly got established during the autumn months. For all of the wet weather and the Atlantic train of November 2009, looking back you can see that the PV remained disturbed throughout the month with even some weak heights at times to our N.

 

7th...

 

 

25th....

 

 

7th Dec...

 

 

The vortex was never allowed to settle.

 

Even with a year like 1978 (where the November looked as +NAO as you can get) there was considerable pressure on the vortex from the Pacific side...

 

 

Preceding a much more amplified pattern by month's end....

 

 

Mid November 1962

 

 

 

The point being that any form of vortex disruption during autumn looks to be a good thing. I'd say the crunch time will be more towards November for this than at present. Something to keep an eye on though for sure.

Edited October 8, 2015 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

In most of the 'classic' winter years that I've looked at, there was evidence that the PV never truly got established during the autumn months. For all of the wet weather and the Atlantic train of November 2009, looking back you can see that the PV remained disturbed throughout the month with even some weak heights at times to our N.

 

A lot of cold Decembers have followed mild wet Novembers but because they are wet, people automatically assume it means 'classic' zonality with the jet blasting through scandi and Nearly into Russia, a good Autumn template for a stonking late Dec / Early Jan cold spell following on is a nice early snow advance in October and a good Russian / Siberian high, a trough stuck out to the West of us for a good part of November with the Russian high retrogressing ever so slightly towards scandi, with a nice sharp shape to it to not only keep the 500mb vortex weak but nibble away higher in the atmosphere as well, thus stopping any Strat Vortex exerting its influence on the trop.

[Cheshire Freeze]

A lot of cold Decembers have followed mild wet Novembers but because they are wet, people automatically assume it means 'classic' zonality with the jet blasting through scandi and Nearly into Russia, a good Autumn template for a stonking late Dec / Early Jan cold spell following on is a nice early snow advance in October and a good Russian / Siberian high, a trough stuck out to the West of us for a good part of November with the Russian high retrogressing ever so slightly towards scandi, with a nice sharp shape to it to not only keep the 500mb vortex weak but nibble away higher in the atmosphere as well, thus stopping any Strat Vortex exerting its influence on the trop.

 

Exactly, infact one of the things I'll be looking out for is a wet, unsettled November (but not an entrenched +NAO/+AO as you point out)

[mpkio2]

In most of the 'classic' winter years that I've looked at, there was evidence that the PV never truly got established during the autumn months. For all of the wet weather and the Atlantic train of November 2009, looking back you can see that the PV remained disturbed throughout the month with even some weak heights at times to our N.

 

7th...

 

 

25th....

 

 

7th Dec...

 

 

The vortex was never allowed to settle.

As you have demonstarted from Nov 2009 NWP above, the vortex does look rather disturbed and doesn't have that strong ugly bulb-like shape to it; the UK did experience that unsettled "westerlie" patch before mid december 2009, where HLB established to our north and got us stuck in the famous 09/10 cold spell. I do believe that any HLB before Winter is a big plus cause we are alittle re-ensured that its always there to keep things interesting up there - although, not always guaranteed.

 

It's probably a psychological thing, about wanting westerlies before Winter and all. I can't explain it really and I know science and history depicts I should feel otherwise, but can't shake off the feeling. Ugh.

 

Whether or not we get westerlies now doesn't effect winter at all. I never understand this idea that if we get an unsettled autumn, it will somehow "use up the zonality reserves"...

 

The same goes for easterlies. The high pressure spell next week, won't use up our "easterly reserves". The weather doesn't work like that.

Like I mentioned above in response to CreweCold, many people probably feel this due to a psycological stand point. The whole "If it gets out of the way now, it won't bother me latter on down the road,". This in itself is of course a fallacy, especially when it comes to something as diversely chnageable and uunnpredicatble like British weather, I know, and as stated, history and science proves otherwise.

 

Guess its just a human thing.

Edited October 8, 2015 by mpkio2

[mpkio2]

Exactly, infact one of the things I'll be looking out for is a wet, unsettled November (but not an entrenched +NAO/+AO as you point out)

Funny enough, thats what I was essentially getting at. 2009 Nov comes to mind. I don't epeecially think that just becasue we get westerlies out of the  way now we will be guaranteed a cold Winter. I do believe it giives us some opportunities for a cold spell. I don't know - logic and emotion ar at war within me.

 

Please ignore me while I go and sort myself out.

[Met4Cast]

I think CreweCold highlighted it well - Colder winters often follow Autumns where the PV never really gets established, we might see wet, milder weather on our side of the globe but the Vortex under pressure from any side is always a good thing.

 

It's still early days yet and it's Late Oct/Nov when the Vortex usually starts to ramp up, but if we continue to see the trend for high latitude blocking and forcing on the PV, it can only be a good sign.

 

Would much rather have a disturbed PV to start with, rather than having full rage zonality and then having to figure out where the attack on the vortex is going to come from later, SSW etc.. 

 

Keep an eye on the cold pool to our NE, we want to see that becoming embedded further in the next few weeks and into November.

[Peter H]

Keep an eye on the cold pool to our NE, we want to see that becoming embedded further in the next few weeks and into November.

Yes, interestingly, Moscow has snow in their forecast this week and the BBC have mentioned it a couple of times in their long range forecasts.

It seems to have come early this year.

The last two winters the Atlantic has pushed well into Europe and even Scandinavia hasn't been all that cold.

Here's hoping this is a sign of things to come.

[Bobafet]

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6682889/Its-Octobrrrrrrr.html

Lol! Best get the snow ploughs ready!

[mountain shadow]

I was enjoying that read until I saw James Madden!!!

Only two weeks to be shown as a charlatan this time.

[Peter H]

Regardless of James Madden, the snow in Moscow was mentioned on the BBC lunchtime weather forecast along with some pretty impressive pics.

Hopefully, this keeps up at least until late November/ early December which is only 7/8 weeks away.

By that stage we should have a reasonably good idea of how winter should pan out.

[MR EXTREMES]

ive never read so much rubbish in my life lol.

thats not very professional from madden or the sun although below average temps do seem to be the theme through part of this month.

[Summer Sun]

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6682889/Its-Octobrrrrrrr.html

Lol! Best get the snow ploughs ready!

 

The Daily Mirror have a story on this as well I've posted a link in the media thread whilst the high ground in the north can get some snow in October lower levels its rare I know it happened a few year back but really the chances increase from mid November onwards

[seaside 60]

I see Santa has had his first snow that I have seen there in the Arctic Circle.

[summer blizzard]

Q3 saw all 3 months record QBO values above +1 for the first time since 2013. 

 

Analogues for this are..

 

2013

2008

2006

2004

2002

1999

1997

1995

1990

1985

1980

 

 

 

Shan't occur like that (El Nino favours a Alaskan Trough) but looks good.

[lorenzo]

Q3 saw all 3 months record QBO values above +1 for the first time since 2013. 

 

Analogues for this are..

 

2013

2008

2006

2004

2002

1999

1997

1995

1990

1985

1980

 

111111111111111111111111111111111.png

 

222222222222222222222.png

 

Shan't occur like that (El Nino favours a Alaskan Trough) but looks good.

 

Have a look at this plot SB. QBO flip in July..

 

Courtesy of the MJO