Winter 2015/16

[Nouska]

Thanks for the response. You prompted me to take a look at where 1.2 is exactly... turns out I forgot that it's actually displaced a little south of the equator 

 

That explains 1.2 having greater anomalies - currently +2.8*C compared with just under +2.4*C for 3.4.

 

Having located the latest advisory (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf) I can see that the situation has changed quite a bit since Trenberth's webinar, with 1.2 overtaking 3.4 during the past month. I imagine that's due to some large sub-surface anomalies extending up to the surface.

 

This is why I often regret posts I make later than around 11 pm... I tend not to research them properly   

 

Dr Michael Ventrice is the one you should be crediting!

 

The jury still out on which flavour of Nino - Jamstec index still in positive outlook   

 

The newly updated N. American models have too much warmth on the coast for Modoki classification: that could still change though.

 

[Methuselah]

I very much agree with Gavin P's claim, that we're in uncharted territory; there are no analogues?

[William Grimsley]

I would love a month like December 2010 or a different extreme like December 2006 or January 1990.

[lorenzo]

Looking at the monster wwb, an MJO forecast which will get in the mix prior to month end then again later, I think the region 1 anomaly in the webinar is already historic.

Modoki for end Jan Feb that's a different element as Nino peaks and wanes.

As for analog years yes very limited dataset, New territory with strength of Nino. Means a lot more tricky to find good patterns.

[Singularity]

Dr Michael Ventrice is the one you should be crediting!

 

The newly updated N. American models have too much warmth on the coast for Modoki classification: that could still change though.

 

 

 

How did I do that... I knew it was Ventrice as I credited the webinar to him in an earlier post on the forum 

I've never been good with names 

 

Thanks for the extra info regarding the possible Modoki  ...but I have wonder if it's too late for any changes to have much of an influence on the winter anyway? After all, it takes time for the effects to propagate across.

[lorenzo]

How did I do that... I knew it was Ventrice as I credited the webinar to him in an earlier post on the forum 

I've never been good with names 

 

Thanks for the extra info regarding the possible Modoki  ...but I have wonder if it's too late for any changes to have much of an influence on the winter anyway? After all, it takes time for the effects to propagate across.

Not always across so to speak CP vs EP ninos have different impacts on strat.

Nino update from CPC out later today as is MJO, IIRC monthly model cluster usually after mid month.

Depends what you are looking at Nino for,as definitive imprints for Europe are less marked than CONUS. The GLAAM state accompanying Nino though is going to be fun..Esp after that Nina ish grind over last winter.

[Yarmy]

I posted this on Gavin's video, but my gut feeling for this winter is something along the lines of 2011-12 of recent years. I think we will have a mild and stormy December, followed by a mixed January and then the "main" cold spell of the winter will be in February. Not really much science in that prediction, about from the consideration of the El Nino mainly.

 

That's not a million miles from 2004/05. Then we had a weak El Nino, wQBO (albeit weakening and it reversed in Jan), and we were at approximately the same point in the solar cycle.

Edited October 12, 2015 by Yarmy

[lorenzo]

https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/status/653556653133008896

Latest ENSO plume from UKMO.

Cluster peaking late Dec into Jan visible.

Edited October 12, 2015 by lorenzo

[chionomaniac]

https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/653564850099122176

 

Here's another of his tweets - classic El Nino pattern for winter

Edited October 12, 2015 by chionomaniac

[feb1991blizzard]

December 1990 was an absolute stonker, Birmingham city centre was an absolute ghost town on a weekend 3 weeks before xmas - 9-th 10th DEcember (roughly) after the pasting on the Friday night before.

[phil nw.]

Gavin P indicated in his last Video update for Winter prospects that any influence the cold Atlantic ssts may have is taking us into unchartered waters-excuse pun.

There is no record of this cold anomaly matching the same years as previous strong Nino events.

 

What i have done ,mainIy just for fun,is to have looked back at years with Nino's equal to or stronger than +1.5C and filtered in only those with a West QBO.

The composites i got for the 3 individual months show troughing around Alaska/NE Pacific with a downstream E.Canadian area of positive heights,moving towards S.Greenland by February.

 

Here they are for what they are worth

 

 

and for the whole Winter 3 months

 

the unknown is how the jet behaves coming across the Atlantic with those cold sea anomalies.

 

I would say with those +ve 500hPa height anomlies over the east coast of the Conus it would divert the jet south some of the time.

Certainly later Winter looks interesting with those heights moving towards S.Greenland giving a more central based blocking in the Atlantic.

A different pattern to some previous recent Winters when we had the E.North American troughing sending the jet roaring ne across the Atlantic towards the UK  -2013/14 comes to mind.

I would speculate at this stage of it being a mixed Winter -and with that disrupted jet coming off the e.seaboard- not an overly zonal(west to east)pattern with opportunities for some colder spells especially i would think from the north west/north later on.

The further north any block situates of course the better for a true Arctic feed.

 

This is not a forecast btw just some early ideas based on 2 main players in past years ie ENSO state and QBO.

I leave it for others to maybe add in their thoughts and any other factors that may have a bearing.

[robbo88]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-2016-europe-winter-forecast-seasonable-london-paris-storms-france-italy-alps/52871620

Accuweather winter forecast for Europe.

[cheese]

Rain.. not forecast.. very annoying.

[Summer Sun]

Parts of eastern Europe could see 15 to 30cm of snow over the next few days with temps 5c to 10c below normal

 

[Methuselah]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-2016-europe-winter-forecast-seasonable-london-paris-storms-france-italy-alps/52871620

Accuweather winter forecast for Europe.

     

[Radiating Dendrite]

High pressure to the north and southerly tracking lows! Sounds like a good forecast for the UK cold wise from accu weather - another one that will probably be torn to shreds come April!

[Methuselah]

High pressure to the north and southerly tracking lows! Sounds like a good forecast for the UK cold wise from accu weather - another one that will probably be torn to shreds come April!

That was my thinking too. So why say that London & Paris will escape the cold?

[mountain shadow]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-2016-europe-winter-forecast-seasonable-london-paris-storms-france-italy-alps/52871620

Accuweather winter forecast for Europe.

I'm struggling to see how high pressure to the North of the UK would fail to bring much colder conditions to the UK.

Seems like they expect the UK to be on the battleground between air masses, with no one air mass predominant.

[Radiating Dendrite]

It did seem a little odd to me. If Scandinavia is "abnormally" cold then that implies the PV setting up shop over there. I could see us having a snowy winter in that scenario; with that cold air able to filter out and impact the UK under the right synoptics.

[MR EXTREMES]

well if london get five snowfall events then us southerners are gonna miss out and thats better than last year for london

[marksiwnc]

     

What on earth is 'seasonal'?? Lol in all fairness if there is a storm track that far south then we will get loads of.opportunities for snow with east and North East and northerly winds frequently in the making. unless I'm reading things wrong

[Costa Del Fal]

Yes with low pressure to the south it seems a bit hard to see why we can't be colder than normal. But cold typically tends to bypass in all ways possible unless it has to anyway!

[Yarmy]

It was so much simpler when Big Joe worked for them and forecast a BRUTAL winter.

 

Every year.

[MR EXTREMES]

and whats joe thoughts on this winter for the uk

[Daniel*]

It did seem a little odd to me. If Scandinavia is "abnormally" cold then that implies the PV setting up shop over there. I could see us having a snowy winter in that scenario; with that cold air able to filter out and impact the UK under the right synoptics.

Definitely true whenever there is apbnormal cold in Scandinavia there is always a chance the UK could tap into it under right synoptic as you say. Long range weather forecasting is a fickle business, could anyone share what there thoughts were for last winter? I do think there will be a southerly tracking jet, with the jet being rebounded south - by cold Atlantic & extensive HP over northern latitudes, so a wet winter for the med IMO. The Scottish mountains/hills will do remarkably well. I will be very startled if UK does not have at least 1 notable cold spell the telecommunications are a total reverse to last year, so there are reasons to be hopeful.