Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016

[KyleHenry]

5 hours ago, Recretos said:

Well, yes I think that too partially, but thinking or believing should not bend the facts a bit, since someone who doesnt know this subject, might get confused when seeing a minor warming with wave 2 or major warming with wave 1. Its just to reduce possible confusion. Wave 1 is a wave 1¸ and wave 2 is wave 2. And minor SSW is minor, and major SSW is major. If there would only be minor SSWs from wave 1s, than I wouldn't say anything, and the same goes for wave 2. The fact is, that one must not link specific wave numbers to specific SSW types, because the stratosphere does not work that way.  We had wave 1 major SSW in 12/13 season, and strong wave 2 with no major or even minor SSW in 13/14 season.

And again, the final warming is just a secondary name, or kinda like a suffix to the SSW. You can have the final warming without an SSW, and you can have an SSW without the final warming. Its just something that is added to the event later, if the vortex fails to recuperate.

Dont get me wrong, I am learning too, as always, and I am just trying to explain a thing or two a bit further, so there wont be any confusion. I know what you meant, but someone who does not know this field very well, might find some things confusing or contradicting down the line. 

happy holidays,

Regards 

You are ready in my opinion to give your theory on how earth circularity/atmospheric systems work. From 100Hpa to 1 Hpa and all exterior influences. 

The reason why is because you are more in tune with all factors and I know this from bardarbunga eruption and your interest in its process. That you could give your hypothesis  of the physics involved. 

 

Bricklayer's opinion has prompted in his post enough for you to give a similar reply and in my opinion a more detailed surmise. 

 

If you do, I know in advance that I will agree to the logic you will use. If not I wait for your scientific paper disclosing your thoughts with antisapation. 

Merry Christmas my friend to you and your family,

 

[lorenzo]

1 hour ago, Dennis said:

A great sign in the strato?? 

Anyone up for some Xmas Eve games

 

 

Edit - add some charts.

While crunching through the NASA suite looking at the PV wondered around filaments and strands of vortex that shear as the main vortice moves around the hemisphere, was thinking back to a couple of season ago when what should have generated a more significant move to negative NAO was impacted by such pulses. Couple for fragments here that reminded me of how sting jets appear during storms, wonder if there is a mirror impact in the stratosphere. 

Great post again Interitus, on fire this week.

Edited December 24, 2015 by lorenzo

[bluearmy]

Indeed tony, that gfs op certainly looks to be headed toward a displaced strat vortex with n America falling ever more under a strat block.  The parallel looks even more interesting ex the 06z on the 10hpa temps. this sceuro trop ridge in tandem with the developing Alaskan ridge responsible? 

[Frank_Wx]

Looks like Dateline / MJO tropical forcing will feedback into western NA mid level ridging come January 

 

[Snowman.]

 

Could this be it? Could the great almighty vortex of 2015 really be starting to fall?

[bluearmy]

The size of the current wave 1 high up is very impressive. It doesn't seem to have any effect on the zonal flow over the next 10 days in the upper strat.  stays very strong and the temps stay v cold 10hpa to 40 hpa. 

Its going to take some impressive trop forcing to bring this strat vortex to its knees. 

[knocker]

Perhaps warming a tad?

[lorenzo]

Some charts from the 06z run - who knows how much data or lack thereof..

Nevertheless.

W2 getting busy, wave 1 looking toasty, a split at 30hPa and a trop vortex looking very hungover.

Fun times ahead.. am sure everyone will be intrigued just to see how this uber cold vortex reacts to some tilt action and meaningful trop precursors.

[lorenzo]

Neat plot from Jason Furtado with Polar Cap height forecast.

Now compare to Martineau historic one. The period of Vortex intensification clearly over, with blocking precursors and tilt in play, january going to be a very different watch from the positive AO/NAO regime that leads to so much despondency  - is it  time for a SSW sweepstake?

 

@knocker re: Model thread and vortex events 97/98 this from the Martineau site

Edited December 26, 2015 by lorenzo

[Recretos]

GEFS Bias corrected is going quite hard on a wave 2 pattern.

 

  

[lorenzo]

No abatement on the 18z either

 

[Singularity]

Woah... GEFS are on something! 

There's been a huge jump in predicted amplification by that model over the past couple of days with a smaller but still significant adjustment by ECM(F). 

Yet at the same time UKMO has suddenly got cold feet. Not that even the GEFS output seems to be enough to bring that Scandi High into a favourable position in the near future... we are playing the long game it would appear, just as most of us expected would be the case this winter.

[Frank_Wx]

At the very least seem to be making progress... 

[Paul123]

The stratospheric vortex remains strong despite hammering of wave 1 and 2.

Nice displacement and elongation of the vortex, though. 

After wave impuls of 5th of January a new one follows, from the 10th onwards. 

I wonder what the results will be in the long run.

Edited December 27, 2015 by Paul123

[Nick F]

Beside the positive short-term impacts of the tropospheric wave activity from the NW Canadian/Alaskan + Scandi ridges are having on the lower stratosphere ...

 ... longer-term, the wQBO is showing signs of weakening toward neutral, perhaps even negative as we head into the 2nd half of winter looking at the equatorial zonal wind anomalies. A look at the 30mb zonal winds - where the QBO is measured, show the current westerlies of (yellow +10 to +20) is slightly weakening with negative (green) anomalies now moving down from higher up, note last winter the easterlies (greens -20 to -30). 

Now, from what I've read, a very negative/easterly QBO is just as prohibitive for blocking as very positive/westerly QBO, some research suggests a weak QBO is favoured over a strongly -ve QBO for high latitude blocking. This crash in the QBO then, could have further implications on weakening and perhaps even splitting the PV later on in the winter. 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2015 by Nick F

[KyleHenry]

Wave 2 and Tropispheric forcing putting serious pressure on PV, if the timings hold to current schedule.

Even a super strength PV can't take a Chinese arm burn. More pressure will be needed to keep on top of reformation but there is much to like.

 

[damianslaw]

Encouraging signs we may be starting to see significant pressure placed on the PV, with strong heights building out of NW Russia.. as shown in model outputs.

 

Didn't GP say 27th would mark the start of a change - bang on cue we are seeing such signs now.

I always think the atlantic when in full bluster as recently blows itself out drastically after 3 months - which will take us until late Jan. In the meantime a battle between continental and atlantic influences seems the order of the day and as winter wears on traditionally the atlantic is beaten down somewhat.

 

[Vorticity0123]

Some interesting developments have been going on both tropospherically and stratospherically. In fact, models seem to be keying on a polar vortex split after abot 10 days below the 30 hPa level. However, this is definitely not looking like a SSW (sudden stratospheric warming). In fact, it is looking more lik a bottom-up process. How does this seem to be unfolding?

High pressure from below

The process appears to start from below this time. As widely discussed in the Model discussion thread, in a few days a ridge is expected to develop near Scandinavia. This ridge is also visible in the lower stratosphere:

 

ECMWF 100 hPa heigts at T+72. Run from yesterday 00Z. Source: FU Berlin.

However, in the mid- to upper stratosphere, little evidence of this ridge can be found initially.

ECMWF 30hPa heigts at T+72. Run from yesterday 00Z. Source: FU Berlin.

So the high pressure 'forcing' here is clearly coming from bottom-up. Also, clearly no signs of warming (red or orange colours) are visible at all at this height. The polar vortex at this height looks nicely circular, with only a slight displacement notable towards Greenland.

Split underway?

In the 10-day timeframe (so about 9 days from now), even more interesting developments appear to be taking place:

 

ECMWF 100hPa heigts at T+240. Source: FU Berlin.
 

The high pressure area near Scandinavia has broadenend, and it is getting help from the 'other side' (near the west coast of the United States). In this way, the polar vortex appears to be splitting into two distinct centers, one located near Greenland and the other over eastern Siberia.
 

This development also appears to be reflected in the upper air:

ECMWF 30 hPa heigts at T+240. Source: FU Berlin.

Although little sign of true ridging is apparent near the European continent, there is some ridging evident near the eastern US. Furthermore, the polar vortex higher up is also becoming stretched twoards Greenland and eastern Siberia. However, also note that no real warming signal is present either way.

Conclusion

All in all, very interesting developments are occurring both tropospherically and stratospherically. In this case, it appears to be a bottom-up procedure. What the consequences will be of this intriguing development in th eupper stratopshere and lower troposphere remains to be seen, perhaps some of the experts here may reflect on this!

 

 

Edited December 27, 2015 by Vorticity0123

[bluearmy]

Latest Berlin charts show the upcoming wave activity doing its stuff as the zonal winds relax somewhat (still on the strong side but trending back to average) and the temps begin to lift towards average. 

still some way to go high up but an average strength animal will be easier to bring down that the monster that currently exists 

[Glacier Point]

and EC EPS extended effectively going for a Canadian Warming, with good support from the deterministic at day 10.

Wave 1 activity is going to be pretty relentless now for the next 2 weeks minimum, which should continue the displacement. This signals a particularly toxic period for our upper vortex.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

and EC EPS extended effectively going for a Canadian Warming, with good support from the deterministic at day 10.

Wave 1 activity is going to be pretty relentless now for the next 2 weeks minimum, which should continue the displacement. This signals a particularly toxic period for our upper vortex.

Fingers crossed GP the clock is starting to tick now if we are to see this wretched vortex brought down or at very least displaced somethings going to have to start happening soonish

[Singularity]

A Canadian Warming? I gather from past reading that's been a rare beast these past two decades and is associated with some fondly remembered cold spells in the 80's for example?

So long as it buggers the vortex, I'm happy for the time being 

[damianslaw]

The models continue to show a very pronounced ridge of heights building into the arctic regions out of Siberia, and also heights building in the same direction from Aluetians region - these forces should dig some wounds in to the PV, a displacement or indeed split could be the outcome but more importantly a more weakened beast..

[Frank_Wx]

Zonal winds in the upper Strat are weakening. QBO values have been trending toward neutral (at 30mb at least).

 

Wave 2 event on the EURO is pretty impressive 

 

We've seen models split the PV in the lower and mid levels...but this is the first time I'm seeing it at 10Hpa. Granted it's quite a long way out. 

 

[Interitus]

8 hours ago, Frank_Wx said:

Zonal winds in the upper Strat are weakening. QBO values have been trending toward neutral (at 30mb at least).

 

Wave 2 event on the EURO is pretty impressive 

 

Thanks for indirectly highlighting Hannah Attard's site, some great charts there http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime.php

With regards to wave heights, this season so far has been below average so recent increases were probably to be expected. With the wave 2 in particular that chart is showing 625 metres at 10mb 60°N and it is 650 metres for the 2 previous days, but to put it into perspective, the record strongest SSW of the January 2009 split vortex was preceded by wave 2 heights of over 2300 metres.