Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016

[Chris1986]

8 minutes ago, Recretos said:

indeed. When looking at layers tho, its better to look at ozone mixing ratios. Here you can nicely see the surf zone.

 

Oh haha, clever clogs  I was looking for the 10 hpa wind yesterday, was driving me mad. I'll keep a look out for your twitter. Thanks!!

[Singularity]

Here, fishy fishy...

This should be fun to track. Though not as fun as it would be if I know how to make charts like Recretos does 

The kick-off in terms of a steady increase in peak temps is around +288 on the 00z. The 06z is slightly faster and ends up a tad stronger too, but I'm wary of trusting that run too much given the rumours on there that it tends to be a bit optimistic for whatever reason.

Taking the 00z and 12z runs and looking at the trend, this event seems to be holding fairly steady in terms of the timing. Now what do people reckon about the rate of downwelling? Could the ongoing disconnect between the trop. and strat. prove to be an issue?

[Yarmy]

4 hours ago, Recretos said:

all the graphics that have my name on it, are my own. i am making my own graphics for quite a while now.  Usually you can find it on my twitter.

 

 

Way off topic, but what tools do you use? I presume you grab the netCDF files and then process them using an API in your preferred language, but what do you use for output? I've played around with the Java API from Unidata and managed to get a 'hello, world' program going to read some reanalysis data, but nothing more.

 

[Recretos]

Thats a good question, but I am kinda personal on that one, since I follow the "code" that if I can do it, so can someone else. So if I managed to figure out a system that works, with a some effort, so can someone else, and I encourage people to do it on their own, like I had to, because in the end that is the way that enables you to do it effortlessly eventually. It might seem like I am being selfish, for not "giving away" my techniques right away, but I have put decent time and energy into it, not to mention the hardware and this subject in general I believe deserves that.  But yes, I also use java based tools.

Edited January 11, 2016 by Recretos

[ALL ABOARD]

 

Its getting quite toasty up there !!!!

[Yarmy]

1 hour ago, Recretos said:

Thats a good question, but I am kinda personal on that one, since I follow the "code" that if I can do it, so can someone else. So if I managed to figure out a system that works, with a some effort, so can someone else, and I encourage people to do it on their own, like I had to, because in the end that is the way that enables you to do it effortlessly eventually. It might seem like I am being selfish, for not "giving away" my techniques right away, but I have put decent time and energy into it, not to mention the hardware and this subject in general I believe deserves that.  But yes, I also use java based tools.

Cool, no bother. Best way to learn is always to work things out by yourself. 

[Recretos]

well, it kinda worked for me best, and its not that I want to or like to do it this way, but I have to do it this way.  I also tried to ask questions and trying to do what others do, but it got me nowhere. So I decided to take a whole different approach to things.

In the meantime, 12z is rocking the strat away.

Edited January 11, 2016 by Recretos

[Timmytour]

31 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

 

Its getting quite toasty up there !!!!

Would I be wrong in thinking that about the same time last year we had the same thing? And, in line with what the Met said at the time, rather than what we all hoped, all we got out of it was a 7 day cold spell at the beginning of Feb in an otherwise write-off winter for those of us coldlovers down south?

[ALL ABOARD]

2 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Would I be wrong in thinking that about the same time last year we had the same thing? And, in line with what the Met said at the time, rather than what we all hoped, all we got out of it was a 7 day cold spell at the beginning of Feb in an otherwise write-off winter for those of us coldlovers down south?

I'm no expert and I've only just started learning about the strat and what implications a SSW has on us. A SSW doesn't necessarily mean freezing cold and snowy for us, although it does increase our chances. Its interesting at the moment to watch the gfs bring the temperature increase forward by 6hrs over the past few runs. Im sure the more knowledgeable posters in here can answer any further questions for you

[chionomaniac]

GEFS showing reversal very close by end of run..... SSW now a strong possibility.

[bluearmy]

Here you go as per ed's post  

 

 

Edited January 11, 2016 by bluearmy

[Cheshire Freeze]

My question is will it come too late in the season to benefit us? I know most questions can't be answered as it's showing over two weeks away but what are the 'gut' feelings over how this should impact the trop?

[Snowman.]

21 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Would I be wrong in thinking that about the same time last year we had the same thing? And, in line with what the Met said at the time, rather than what we all hoped, all we got out of it was a 7 day cold spell at the beginning of Feb in an otherwise write-off winter for those of us coldlovers down south?

Apart from the fact that an SSW at some point in Jan was given high probability with even the MetO stating that an SSW is 'Likely' this year. We have been waiting since the start of December, it may be a little later than anticipated but those who have forecast the step by step process having been waiting for this moment and it's finally appeared.

[bluearmy]

If only the extended ECM ens were running today to see if there is a quick trop response on the control .............

[mountain shadow]

Are we confident this is goer now for month end? 

[feb1991blizzard]

20 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

GEFS showing reversal very close by end of run..... SSW now a strong possibility.

Yes I thought that myself, whats slightly concerning is the met office have dropped their 'Further cold spells possible' line from the end of their 30 dayer, you would think if they think an SSW is possible that they would mention the chance of colder weather, they cant think an SSW is likely because at this range surely they wouldn't actually commit to an SSW actually occurring but either not propagating down the atmosphere far enough or the ridges and troughs setting up in the 'wrong' place for cold to occur

[feb1991blizzard]

20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If only the extended ECM ens were running today to see if there is a quick trop response on the control .............

why are they not running???

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

why are they not running???

it was supposed to be ironic ..........

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

it was supposed to be ironic ..........

No worries - sorry.

[Recretos]

As Chhiono has said, GEFS is seeing the drop.

 

 

[lorenzo]

1 minute ago, Recretos said:

As Chhiono has said, GEFS is seeing the drop.

 

 

Precisely what I was just looking at.. can spot the SSW Ens member from your lego plots in there too Andrew. I got what you meant @bluearmy

[Recretos]

Hmm, not sure, since this seems to be the 12z from yesterday.

And here is the 65N mean, to compensate for Lorenzos 65N based graphics. 

Edited January 11, 2016 by Recretos

[lorenzo]

1 minute ago, Recretos said:

Hmm, not sure, since this seems to be the 12z from yesterday.

Site says run real time, so who knows, maybe the same ENS - it's still there...?  http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime.php

 GFS 0.5° forecast - Zonal mean plots are run once a day at 0000 UTC  Regardless, defer to your data Andrew - you will see more clearly than us, looks like the downward trend in u reaches a plateau prior to month end.. will this trend gain momentum ( no pun intended ) and provide the technical SSW?

Cracking 3 D Plot today, been good to see that flying around twitterverse.

[Recretos]

Cheers. I just see the time where initialization is. its on 10th at 12z.  you can see that mine which is from today , also 12z run, is also going much lower than yesterday.

edit:

The 12z GEFS sure has stepped up the game. lets hope the future ones do the same. 

 

Edited January 11, 2016 by Recretos

[damianslaw]

Good to see activity in this thread again - a late SSW could still produce some notable cold before winter is out, and would tie in with many long range forecasts going for coldest conditions towards the end of the winter.

I'd sooner see the effects by the end of Jan/early Feb rather than later, but still March 2013 proved how cold things can be even in early Spring - not saying this will happen.