Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2015/2016

[feb1991blizzard]

Does anyone know if you can get access to the  JMA ensembles free of charge please? - re-strat data and also can you get any more strat data from the JMA operational like 20mb, 5mb temps and heights etc rather than being reliant on recretos's brilliant graphics, I'm sure someone has posted some more JMA data on here before, i distinctly remember seeing  JMA EP-flux charts once unless ive gone mad!!   Thanks in advance.

Edited January 12, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[FetchCB]

Looking at the following page

http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/Activities/nwp.html

it would appear that they only use low resolution ensemble forecasts for 1 week out.

 

However there is a number of reports on the strat available here

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

[chionomaniac]

12Z GFS has no SSW modeled but come the last chart it is almost there -and with further warming entering the vortex we would achieve it soon after. Not that it is right of course. 

[Nouska]

3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Does anyone know if you can get access to the  JMA ensembles free of charge please? - re-strat data and also can you get any more strat data from the JMA operational like 20mb, 5mb temps and heights etc rather than being reliant on recretos's brilliant graphics, I'm sure someone has posted some more JMA data on here before, i distinctly remember seeing  JMA EP-flux charts once unless ive gone mad!!   Thanks in advance.

Think this is what you are after - use drop-down for various parameters.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/index.html#monit_nh

The 10mb temp charts for JMA are on Meteociel : will update later tonight - link set at 264, showing chart for yesterday.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/jma.php?ech=264&mode=4&nh=1&archive=0

I don't know of anywhere that the JMA ensembles are available for current runs. Some archived stuff but no strat charts.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Think this is what you are after - use drop-down for various parameters.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/index.html#monit_nh

The 10mb temp charts for JMA are on Meteociel : will update later tonight - link set at 264, showing chart for yesterday.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/jma.php?ech=264&mode=4&nh=1&archive=0

I don't know of anywhere that the JMA ensembles are available for current runs. Some archived stuff but no strat charts.

Thanks, yes ive got those links, what time does the JMA op finish off the run please? - its stuck on 192 now but given the colour coding it looks like its supposed to be, I don't bother with the bin fodder models usually but Ian Fergusson said the UK MET consider the  JMA better than the GFS for strat output so curious and will be following it more intently now.

Edited January 12, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Nouska]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thanks, yes ive got those links, what time does the JMA op finish off the run - its stuck on 192 now but given the colour coding it looks like its supposed to be, I don't bother with the bin fodder models usually but Ian Fergusson said the UK MET consider the  JMA better than the GFS for strat output so curious and will be following it more intently now.

The JMA have been monitoring and modelling the strat for a very long time, whether that makes them any more proficient - I will leave to the people that have access to all the tools we lack to make comparisons.

12Z run comes out in batches but not sure at what times.

[Interitus]

Unfortunately it hasn't been updated for a few days but the JMA strat link you want is http://www.dpac.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/noguchi/strat.monitor.en.html

[fat chad]

Not often that I venture on here... But I must admit that this has been an education. Would be interesting to see the effects of the vortex shifted to Siberia on the U.K. weather. I think I shall pay more attention to this in the future, instead of just the model output discussion. Cheers chaps...

[chionomaniac]

EPS look on board for significant warming!

 

 

[bluearmy]

Love the way you 'fished' for that chart  to be tweeted ed!

 

[Chris1986]

Gents,

Is there any way to predict the force of the wave break from the stratosphere into the troposphere? For example if they will be strong enough to shut the jet stream down temporarily or what effect it will have.

[chionomaniac]

5 minutes ago, Chris1986 said:

Gents,

Is there any way to predict the force of the wave break from the stratosphere into the troposphere? For example if they will be strong enough to shut the jet stream down temporarily or what effect it will have.

It's best to wait a few days for that - though this chart shows a great SSW precursor pattern

 

 

[Chris1986]

5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

It's best to wait a few days for that - though this chart shows a great SSW precursor pattern

 

 

Thanks chionomaniac, I will keep a look out for the developments. It's definitely getting intresting  

[chionomaniac]

btw GFS at the end of the run at 1hPa is a whopper tonight....

[Chris1986]

57 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

btw GFS at the end of the run at 1hPa is a whopper tonight....

Are you allowed to post here? I can't see 1 hpa charts  

[weatherjunkie]

We've seen fantasy range SSW forecasts before, only to become less aggressive as it approaches. It looks promising, and while the stratosphere is generally easier to predict than the troposphere, it is far from over. I do like the model agreement. We are still in that day 10+ area so the only thing we can do is wait and see. 

There is also another factor to consider and was perhaps mentioned in this thread but I'm too lazy to look . A recent article (2012) showed a correlation between MJO phases and a SSW. When in phases 7-8 during winter there is an increased probability of an SSW during days 1-12 following the MJO orbit. This is where we currently are according to WH phase plots. 

Now if this does happen we would have to see how it propagates downward, which is highly dependent on the willingness of lower levels to cooperate...best case scenario is we feel the effects by mid-February, which I suppose is better than nothing. 

[bluearmy]

7 hours ago, Chris1986 said:

Are you allowed to post here? I can't see 1 hpa charts  

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2016011300&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384

[Recretos]

Uncertainties beginning to emerge in the ensembles. 

 

 

As far as JMA goes, it was actually me, who said a year or two ago, that JMA GSM has superior configuration for strat forecasting  to the GFS.  And it has variable runs, which means that only 12z goes to 264h, others go to 192 and less.

Edited January 13, 2016 by Recretos

[karyo]

The 0z GFS had downgraded the warming at the 30hpa level but it is back with a bang in the 6z.

Caution is needed though as the 6z is often the 'warmest' run stratospherically.

Karyo

[Singularity]

GFS's insistence on driving the Atlantic through the ridge next week is setting up a strong wave-1 precursor pattern on our side of the globe... but if we instead see trough disruption against the block then we'll be either in no-mans land or nearer a wave-2 precursor (but not much of a sign of Aleutian height rises yet so a fair way to go in that respect).

In short, I'm not sure I trust the type of warming being shown by GEFS just yet. Only if the models come together on that SW-NE jet with the Azores High extended well across Europe will I gain faith in that outcome.

As GP has suggested in the MOD thread, we may find ourselves with no distinct event, rather a lot of vortex perturbation. The hope is that this process in the strat supports the GWO analogues for a stable 7-6-5 orbit, this being the likely outcome given the forcing from the Pacific in particular. Of course this assumes that we get the persistent amplification of the pattern during the next couple of weeks. Hopefully my interpretations are not at all wayward, please correct me if I'm wrong, cheers.

[feb1991blizzard]

1mb profile iss very nice both temperature and height wise. I'm starting to like this potential displacement SSW, does this tie in with Stewart's Atlantic high scenario?, it looks a bit later to me to affect the trop.

[Nouska]

An intriguing (as in not seen it before) pincer warming on the last two GFS parallel runs.

00Z        06Z 

Shame I have no access to the geopotential heights for the parallel as it would be nice to see the vortex positioning.

[Recretos]

Well, on 6z it looks good, but still no technical SSW. 

 

 

[Chris1986]

45 minutes ago, Recretos said:

Well, on 6z it looks good, but still no technical SSW. 

 

 

I'm am confident around the end on Jan start of Feb We will start to see the SSW in full swing and 850 hpa model data reflecting as such. We saw a glimpse in the 06 run of the 850 temps and jet stream stall. I'm no expert and no where near as clever as you guys but I managed to guess every snow event In 2010 so luck is on my side  

[TomDav]

2 hours ago, Nouska said:

An intriguing (as in not seen it before) pincer warming on the last two GFS parallel runs.

00Z        06Z 

Shame I have no access to the geopotential heights for the parallel as it would be nice to see the vortex positioning.

Here are heights for 06Z at 372