Past winters discussion

[damianslaw]

On ‎11‎/‎01‎/‎2016 at 1:16 PM, Snowyowl9 said:

Well this year has a long long way to catch up 10 years ago 55 air frosts in total.

So far this year 2 and that's including November which gave 1 air frost.

 

Do you mean winter 05/06 overall produced 55 air frosts.. Though mid Nov 05 - mid Jan 06 was very dry with lots of high pressure I don't recall such a run of air frosts, but yes plenty of them.

Do you mean 5 years ago i.e. winter 10/11 which preety much died of time around this date.

The number of frosts so far this season has been woeful, must be a record low. We managed just 2 in December, and about 3 or 4 in November.

We had a ground frost this morning and only just an air frost yesterday morning, we should see a run now through until Tuesday, which will help the tally a little bit. Its been very similar to 2013/2014 in this respect. The coldest part of winter 13/14 occurred in early-mid February. Last winter saw a good run of air frosts from mid Jan through to mid Feb but temps often fell in the 0 to -2 range.

 

[Snowyowl9]

34 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Do you mean winter 05/06 overall produced 55 air frosts.. Though mid Nov 05 - mid Jan 06 was very dry with lots of high pressure I don't recall such a run of air frosts, but yes plenty of them.

 

Yes 2005-06 from November all the way to april,November and march were the highlights that year.

 2010-11 gave less incredibly at 51 air frost,2009-10 gave 54.

As I`ve always said on here I`ve always really liked 2005-06,feb was a good month too. 

January did give an easterly with some snow 5th 6th and 7th and there was 12 air frosts that month alone here.

 

 

Edited January 14, 2016 by Snowyowl9

[damianslaw]

Winter 05/06 was a very dry one overall, it was unusual in how quiet the atlantic was, there was often high pressure overhead or sat out in the mid atlantic, with weak frontal attacks from the NW only. The coldest wintriest conditions were reserved for the shoulder seasons unusually as well, late November produced a potent arctic outbreak, tail end of Feb and early March likewise, before we saw an easterly lasting out to the last week of the month.

It wasn't a particularly memorable winter snow - wise, there was a weak easterly just after Christmas that gave some snow to eastern parts, but not much else. There was a classic late season battleground event on 12 March, uncanny in its timings 10 years after the 12 March 96 event.

Overall it was a good winter, it felt very wintry throughout without ever being exceptionally cold or severe, there was very little mild weather, temps often hovered close to or just either side of average. After a run of winters with plenty of lengthy mild spells, it came as a big welcome, indeed it was the coldest I think since winter 95/96. I remember the Met Office saying it would be a cold one with a negative NAO, I don't recall any winter forecasts being quite so bullish since. They got it right, it did produce a very negative NAO, but due to the orientation of heights we never managed to pull in any significant cold uppers, nor develop our own cold pool. I think Russia had a very cold winter that year, it could have been a notably severe one..

I'd be happy with a winter like 05/06 again, but with a couple of decent very cold snowy spells.

Winter 09/10 was better though and also preety dry here, 08/09 likewise.. so we haven't done too badly since on the dry front, but we've been really short changed recently with the shocker of 13/14 and the even more shocking way this winter has begun..

Edited January 14, 2016 by damianslaw

[Snowyowl9]

Winter 2005-06 was the best known winter for little atlantic influence and as you say HP dominated and dry the best I`ve seen for that and very welcome,every month brought interest from November to april unlike this year and 13/14 and others.

November before that potent N-ly which gave lots of snow to the west and SW gave a dominant HP centred over us giving a week of hard to severe frosts

Good inversions returned with freezing fog and ice days early feb also with freezing drizzle  after a poor run of winters in the late 90`s and 00`s,then more sharp frosts mid month down to -4.4c

Then the highlight of the winter for me came the last 10 days of february,apart from the prolonged march cold spell aswell.

The 19th a cold NE-ly set in And I`ll continue with that again next month.

 

Edited January 16, 2016 by Snowyowl9

[Cumbrian Blizzard]

Hi, the best snow I've experienced was from a stalled front in West Cumbria during February 1996. I remember heavy snow falling from 8am on the Monday morning, continuing all day and night. I was snowed in for a week with 18" level snow depth and drifts of 6' plus. It buried my mini I had at the time! The coastal village of St Bees was completely cut off and food deliverys were undertaken by boat from Whitehaven. A truly remarkable period from an area that usually receives little snow. 

[damianslaw]

Snowfalls of 4 inches or more have been quite rare even here in the central Lakes over the last 20 years, only occasions were -

5/6 Feb 96 - as the above post says, 18 inches fell widely over Cumbria.

Dec 28 2000 - about 5 inches

12 March 06 - about 6 inches

20/21 Dec 09 - about 8 inches

4 Feb 12 - 5 inches

26 Jan 13 - 8 inches

(March 22 13 produced such amounts in the far west of the county but not here).

We've had many many falls of 1-3 inches, too many to mention, but 4 inches seems to be a difficult amount to achieve. Had yesterday's precipitation been heavier then 16 Jan 16 would have been added to the list, alas it will go down as one of those light snowfalls.

We missed out on heavy falls in winter 08/09 and 10/11 lots of 1-2 inch falls only.

[Snowyowl9]

Even rarer especially on low ground is to see snow drifting, when was the last time you saw that let alone drifting snow from the west or SW much more likely on hills,but that's very rare to see, its made a comeback in the last few years.

Like these recent ones 2010 started the trend.

Cold zonality made a comeback second chart.

Archive charts only go upto the end of January 2014.

So February 13th next one drifting from the west/SW.

Then twice last January 14th from the SW surface windflow and then on the 29th.

Edited January 17, 2016 by Snowyowl9

[I remember Atlantic 252]

All I can say is this chart looks legendary NH profile etc, -12 uppers, deep unthawing snow on ground (out of sun), cold spell lasted ages! around 21st march to 07 April

[Cumbrian Blizzard]

On 17/01/2016 at 9:53 AM, damianslaw said:

 

(March 22 13 produced such amounts in the far west of the county but not here).

March 2013 was extremely localised, with enormous falls just a few miles from areas with little or none. I remember visiting grasmere a week later on April 1st  couldn't believe how much they'd had. They must have had around a foot!

[Snowyowl9]

March/april 2013 gave 18inches of level snow even further west of here 20miles as a lady we know was telling us,its the most snow she`s seen and she`s not a young lady.

[March]

Does anyone know of a March between 1995 and 1999 that had a decent bit of snow in the first few days? I remember on my birthday at lower school there being quite a bit but don't know which year. The fact that I was small also might be leading me to remember more snow than there was! I have a feeling it wasn't 1999, I was younger I think. 

[March]

25 minutes ago, March said:

Does anyone know of a March between 1995 and 1999 that had a decent bit of snow in the first few days? I remember on my birthday at lower school there being quite a bit but don't know which year. The fact that I was small also might be leading me to remember more snow than there was! I have a feeling it wasn't 1999, I was younger I think. 

Ok after some research it appears to have been 1995. 

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, March said:

Does anyone know of a March between 1995 and 1999 that had a decent bit of snow in the first few days? I remember on my birthday at lower school there being quite a bit but don't know which year. The fact that I was small also might be leading me to remember more snow than there was! I have a feeling it wasn't 1999, I was younger I think. 

Yes most likely 1995. We had a cold unstable NW airflow, plenty of trough features embedded within. Lots of snow, that temporarily thawed during the day thanks to solar heat, but iced in overnight.

March 1996 brought further snow mid month, it was a very easterly month, very dull and raw.

March 97, 98 and 99 from memory were mild/very mild with little snow to speak of. The start of March 98 brought a bit of snow though.

[damianslaw]

Reminiscing mode again - anyone recall what the models and long range forecasts were suggesting back at the end of Jan/early Feb 2005? We'd had a lengthy mostly mild spell since October, but a dramatic change occurred mid Feb, long drawn easterlies with strong heights to our NE - I remember thinking how unusual the synoptics were, after many winters with limited deep seated easterlies stretching back to Russia.

I seem to recall many forecasts only just latching onto the change at a very late stage, it came quite suddenly. There was a shortlived northerly early in Feb which produced little snow..

Winter 04/05 certainly one which reserved the coldest conditions until the very end and indeed into March. I'm thinking back to that winter, given current forecasts for this one delivering a similar scenario. Its a good lesson to those who by early Feb call time on a winter...

The spell also marked a change in the set pattern that had established itself since Feb 97, i.e. a predominantly zonal atlantic one, with classic ridge/trough development and a Jetstream on a SW-NE axis, to a much more blocked pattern with strong northern blocking at times, and a much more meridional Jetstream, the barrage of wet summers from 2007-2012 and the colder winters in the main (2006/2007 and 2007/2008 excepted). A further change has occurred since roughly Autumn 2013, coinciding with peak period of solar energy, however, I suspect shortlived and we will a change occur very shortly away towards a more blocked set up again.

Good to read people's memories of the cold mid Feb - mid March 2005 period, what the models and forecasts were going for at the time, and what were the reasons for the change? - did we see a SSW?, was the ENSO state a reason???

 

Edited January 19, 2016 by damianslaw

[MP-R]

That was the infamous case of perfect synoptics and very little reward was it not? 2006 was also similar. The easterlies lacked any bite and the snow arrived when high pressure moved westwards and let in the northerlies.

[MP-R]

That was the infamous case of perfect synoptics and very little reward was it not? 2006 was also similar. The easterlies lacked any bite and the snow arrived when high pressure moved westwards and let in the northerlies.

[snowblizzard]

This is my favourite chart from the last 30 years!

Maximum daytime temp -5c and 18 inches of powder snow in Westerham Kent 

Will we ever see the like again?

[snowblizzard]

850 hPa view!

Edited January 20, 2016 by snowblizzard

[damianslaw]

Whilst the chart above rightly classed as a classic cold synoptic, we've had better charts in terms of longer deep seated easterlies, see March 2013 chart further up the thread - look at the complete reversal of westerly winds in the northern hemisphere in that chart, compared to the one above. What was quite special about Jan 87 is how quickly a deep cold pool developed over Scandinavia, conditions in late December were nothing exceptional. It was the optimum time though for cold uppers to quickly develop with long diurnal cooling.

 

[snowblizzard]

12 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Whilst the chart above rightly classed as a classic cold synoptic, we've had better charts in terms of longer deep seated easterlies, see March 2013 chart further up the thread - look at the complete reversal of westerly winds in the northern hemisphere in that chart, compared to the one above. What was quite special about Jan 87 is how quickly a deep cold pool developed over Scandinavia, conditions in late December were nothing exceptional. It was the optimum time though for cold uppers to quickly develop with long diurnal cooling.

 

Yes, if that March 2013 pattern had occurred at the beginning of January it would have be phenomenal!

With the exception of 62/63, I can't really remember any severe cold spell in SE that has lasted longer than around 7 days?

Edited January 21, 2016 by snowblizzard

[Weather-history]

A potent March easterly from 1931

 

 

[damianslaw]

Though this thread is about past winters... we've seen many a winter dig well into March, most notably and recently 2013. I tend to think of March as more of a winter month in general especially the first half, SST values are at there coldest, the continent is also only just coming out of its winter cold trench and the arctic is at its coldest, yes the sun has much more strength to it, but an airstream from between NW and SE can be and often is every bit as cold as occurs in December.

Northerlies and easterlies are far more likely in March than Jan and Feb as well, the atlantic is traditionally far quieter than Nov-Jan period, indeed if there is a month when 'coldest synoptics' most likely to occur it is March.

[March]

March highs are on average higher than November here with more sunlight and less rain so I can't agree with thinking of it as "winter". In fact temps are usually closer to April than Feb. There are obviously regional and year-on-year differences, but spring is a transitional time so being cold is part of that. Ultimately it's more often than not, not one of the three coldest months, and here at least has average highs above November too. 

[Weather Observer]

I was wondering what the coldest upper air temperatures have been in this country in the time that it is sensible to hazard a guess. Has it ever been below -20c at 850hPa?

We are by now quite familiar with 12th January 1987 and 1st February 1956  when record upper  lows of -19c were reached over parts of England. The lowest daily surface maxima I could find for those days were -9c and-6c respectively.

When it comes to -20c the two historic winters of 1740  and 1684 come to mind, back in the little ice age. Professor Manley who did some of the work on the CET series, states that the temperature was below 15 Fahrenheit  in London at the end of December 1739 with an easterly gale. Circa-10c. So that is a candidate.

It so happens that one Rutland family,  the Barkers, who took an early interest in the sciences, were able to throw light on just how cold the most extreme days of those two winters were. They had thermometers but people kept them indoors then!

Thomas Barker stated in his diary that the severest of the frost was the last 4 days of 1739. He measured the freezing every morning and evening of the water in a trough, and in the daytime it froze an inch thick. That night it then froze two and a half inches in 16hours. He goes on to say that this frost was not as great as some former ones, notably 1684. This lasted 13 weeks and was "so sharp that water thrown up fell down as ice". His grandfather had told him that it froze 3 inches and one third in a night.

Manley did a broad brush reconstruction of the weather and Synoptics of 1684. He suggested the cold was most intense on 15/16th January with east winds and temperatures  likely to have been below -12c mid morning in London. There were reports that it was cloudy so the diurnal range was not likely to have been large.

So not very scientific, but given the broadly similar Synoptics  with  a Scandinaviah high in each of these four events and the surface temperatures, I would wager that 1740 and 1684 were sub -20c. 

i live on a farm and my cattle trough has been filled and ready for some time.

 

[booferking]

1 hour ago, Weathervane said:

I was wondering what the coldest upper air temperatures have been in this country in the time that it is sensible to hazard a guess. Has it ever been below -20c at 850hPa?

We are by now quite familiar with 12th January 1987 and 1st February 1956  when record upper  lows of -19c were reached over parts of England. The lowest daily surface maxima I could find for those days were -9c and-6c respectively.

When it comes to -20c the two historic winters of 1740  and 1684 come to mind, back in the little ice age. Professor Manley who did some of the work on the CET series, states that the temperature was below 15 Fahrenheit  in London at the end of December 1739 with an easterly gale. Circa-10c. So that is a candidate.

It so happens that one Rutland family,  the Barkers, who took an early interest in the sciences, were able to throw light on just how cold the most extreme days of those two winters were. They had thermometers but people kept them indoors then!

Thomas Barker stated in his diary that the severest of the frost was the last 4 days of 1739. He measured the freezing every morning and evening of the water in a trough, and in the daytime it froze an inch thick. That night it then froze two and a half inches in 16hours. He goes on to say that this frost was not as great as some former ones, notably 1684. This lasted 13 weeks and was "so sharp that water thrown up fell down as ice". His grandfather had told him that it froze 3 inches and one third in a night.

Manley did a broad brush reconstruction of the weather and Synoptics of 1684. He suggested the cold was most intense on 15/16th January with east winds and temperatures  likely to have been below -12c mid morning in London. There were reports that it was cloudy so the diurnal range was not likely to have been large.

So not very scientific, but given the broadly similar Synoptics  with  a Scandinaviah high in each of these four events and the surface temperatures, I would wager that 1740 and 1684 were sub -20c. 

i live on a farm and my cattle trough has been filled and ready for some time.

 

You might find this interesting below it has some info on other winters.