North West England Weather Discussion 14/11/15 Onwards

[Frost HoIIow]

Yep it looks like it could be marginal for low ground. A bit like mid January last year when I missed out on a snow fall purely for being 40 meters too low. Literally just up the road and there was a decent cover above 130m, could be a repeat performance this year, the only saving grace was we had a decent fall at the end of the month last Jan..........overall it's been quite disappointing since Thursday after the stella 12z runs on Wednesday which were reminiscent of 2010. Looking like a bog standard cold spell, nowt special but will feel colder because of how mild early Winter was.

Edited January 10, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[Spah1]

1 hour ago, iand61 said:

Plenty of nice ones and plenty of not so nice ones but when it comes to property, forget location, location, location.....it's altitude, altitude, altitude.

 

Couldn't agree more. If I was living at altitude I'd be quite looking forward to Thursday/Friday. In the car it is then. 

[Badgers01]

I am sure it will snow in Cumbria I am not there this week , I always miss it !

[Geordiesnow]

Some nice convective weather here with heavy rain showers with some hail mixed in for good measure, not pleasant to cycle to work in mind however!

Regarding snow potential, the flow does look slack and there will be some cold air around but the problem will be what direction the surface will come in, it does look like it will be coming in from the Sea so even light winds can produce moderation. I am not expecting anything wintry here but would not mind some nice convective weather but giving the messy set up, it does look like I could be disappointed in this aspect. 

Its too hard predict what will happen though, its a forecasters nightmare because it really will be a case of radar watching. 

[Frost HoIIow]

6 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Was that the 21 January last year? I remember having a full morning of snow up at my sixth form in Oldham, and actually being sent home. Then when I came home, down here in Failsworth there was absolutely nothing, bar the odd very slushy patch.

Yes that would be correct. Given Oldham town centre is between 200-230m asl dependant on what street you are on it's easily high enough to get into the more marginal situations like that day. I remember looking at the dew points that day and here in Failsworth we were incredibly close to getting in on that. Also the sleet & snow just wasn't heavy enough down here to give evaporative cooling a kick start either.

[Liam J]

Fairly chilly start to the day, 2.9c & clear skies but just to the west over the Irish sea there's some decent shower clouds. Chance of a frost or two later this week... Maybe some icy rain/sleet but the hills should do well for snow cover if we get enough ppn. 

Edited January 11, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[James M]

Managed a rare air frost this morning! -0.5°C

[Chris.R]

A much colder night than forecast here. The minimum and current temp is 0.6°C and my other sensor in the open garden has just recorded an air frost at -0.1°C.

Grass frost observed.

Wasn't expecting this. 

[griff74]

Well BBC weather said it was a barmy 4-5c at mine this morning so you can imagine my shock when I had to deice the car, almost made me late for work, don't mind though as I love cold and crisp mornings, here's hoping to many more!

[Chris.R]

 Still 0.7°C here, not sure it will rise much with the cloud. Maybe an advantage for tonight. 

[Geordiesnow]

Yep, a nice cold start to day, how winter should be really, light off shore winds the reason why it was colder than perhaps forecast.

[Chris.R]

8 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Yep, a nice cold start to day, how winter should be really, light off shore winds the reason why it was colder than perhaps forecast.

  Supposed to back on-shore later today I think. Interesting to see how much effect that has. 

Edited January 11, 2016 by Chris.R

[griff74]

Well I've just booked myself a long weekend just in case, as when we do ever have any nice snowy weather I'm always stuck in work and miss it. Even if I don't get any at home some of my best friends have just bought a place up in the hills around Ramsbottom (and according to the neighbours they always get a good pasting there!) and my family live in North Wales so I should be able to find some white stuff somewhere!!

[Snow free zone]

Incredible stuff ..... had to scrape some ice off the car this morning scary.

At least it looks like the rain will be getting colder for most of us this week.

 

[northwestsnow]

Im thinking parts of the north west will do OK thur/fri, esp those higher up.

For example , moorside up the road from me is 300m asl.

Dont think i will be quite high enough but 300m i suspect will be enough to ensure a covering by the end of the week.

edit although metoffice app has -1 and heavy snow here fri morning,hmmmm not sure if thats accurate though

Edited January 11, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Snow free zone]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Im thinking parts of the north west will do OK thur/fri, esp those higher up.

For example , moorside up the road from me is 300m asl.

Dont think i will be quite high enough but 300m i suspect will be enough to ensure a covering by the end of the week.

I'd agree.  Looks like usual places inland and with a bit of height should get a covering.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Snow free zone said:

I'd agree.  Looks like usual places inland and with a bit of height should get a covering.

GFS6Z lessens the risk but euros look a bit better- if higher parts around Oldham dont get a covering from a NW'ly in January i'd be suprised .:)

[Darren Bown]

A slight grass frost here this morning, a lot of ice on the cars. Was quite surprised. Only cleared the last hour when the sun came out! Certainly looks hit and miss this week, most likely wintry showers, and where they are most frequent/mostly of hail/falling at night, will be where anyone sees anything accumulating really.

Edited January 11, 2016 by Darren Bown

[Spah1]

Happy with this.

Met Office.

"The weekend will continue cold with widespread overnight frosts. Winds should be predominantly from the north or northwest, which could feed wintry showers across northern and western coasts."

[griff74]

6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Happy with this.

Met Office.

"The weekend will continue cold with widespread overnight frosts. Winds should be predominantly from the north or northwest, which could feed wintry showers across northern and western coasts."

I'll bank that!

[dodge]

So many ingredients to mix in the pot to get that holy grail of powder-puff settling snow.  The hit and miss nature of showers further adds to the anxiety.  Hope some of us at least see something wintry falling in the next few days.

Edited January 11, 2016 by dodgeredee

[V for Very Cold]

thought it was time to make my annual appearance on the boards... lets just hope that's not the trigger for the gulf stream to move north again!

[chicken soup]

Im not holding out much hope here  in blackburn....meto have me down for rain on thursday ...given up now on this so called cold spell...the goose chase is already on for the next spell towards months end.

[dodge]

Good news is that the winds are starting to switch to a north westerly, and not from the south west.  This allows our region the first land mass that the showers will hit as they crop up of the Irish sea.  Already a small line coming into western areas now, but I expect this will all be rain to start with.

[frosty ground]

16 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Im not holding out much hope here  in blackburn....meto have me down for rain on thursday ...given up now on this so called cold spell...the goose chase is already on for the next spell towards months end.

Indeed the Met "Computer Generated data" Which is basically raw output is not promising at all.

Of course people will rightly point out that these outputs are fickle and will change constantly.