Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Ok....  Glad i said IF....  Because its not now looking like any mid north atlantic trough will develop in the way it was previously predicted according to todays noaa anomaly charts.  Cant post them,  im on tablet,  but they now suggest this cold high will not be going anywhere fast,  and the chances of a scandinavia block.....  Goodnews if your wanting cold weather as thechances have taken a significant shift towards something cold. 

I must admit, Rob, that I'm not disappointed.   Though I was trying to counterbalance the cold ramping by pointing-out that a Euro high was possible, not only am I enjoying thr colder, settled conditons, but I was concerned that a Euro high could bring renewed flooding to the north west.

[mushymanrob]

7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I must admit, Rob, that I'm not disappointed.   Though I was tryisouthwesterlieslance the cold ramping by pointing-out that a Eu ro high was possible, not only am I enjoying thr colder, settled conditons, but I was concerned that a Euro high could bring renewed flooding to the north west.

Well these charts need further runs to consolidate their consistency,  but these latest charts do block the mild southwesrtetlies establishing, and have swung towards a cold block.  Just how cold and snowy is of course uncertain but something cold is looking likely IF these charts are on the ball. 

 

Iim not overly bothered either,  Its been too mild in december. 

Cant edit typos on this.. 

 

Cheers shotski

[knocker]

I must admit I wouldn't class that as a significant shift as the upper flow is still in the westerly quadrant. It's not that easy to pin down the position of the surface HP from that but even with a SE drift it wouldn't be particularly cold. Looking at the GEFS

Having said that the ext ecm tonight certainly doesn't agree and moves the UK HP to weak ridging NE to Scandinavia and and with the trough mid Atlantic introduces more zonality.

[Snipper]

3 hours ago, John88B said:

The last few years around Bristol haven't been great snow wise but we had 16cm fall in Patchway, North Bristol this time 3 years ago and a couple of other dustings. I think and hope you'll have plenty of opportunities to get that sledge out in the coming years.

Do you mean cm or mm?  Just wondering. 

[Harsh Climate]

I've heard of a lot of SSW events being forecast/expected since 2010 and I don't think we've even had one yet. Until the met office give us a big update that were all hoping for over the coming weeks I can't see anything changing.

At the end of the day the met office have the most tools and expertise at there desposal not to mention a £97m supercomputer, any other forecasts are just guess work and a lot more uneducated than any met office guess.

Edited January 18, 2016 by Harsh Climate

[John88B]

8 hours ago, Snipper said:

Do you mean cm or mm?  Just wondering. 

Definitely 16cm or 6 inches. Filton airfield, a mile down the road measured 15cm and I guess  the extra few metres in height of Patchway gave it that touch more.

 

 

Edited January 19, 2016 by John88B

[knocker]

This morning's GFS closely follows the script written by the anomaly with HP very adjacent to the south/south east for much of the run. The result being much of the wet and windy weather being concentrated in the west and north west with the quieter more settled weather in the south and east. Temps around average or slightly above but obviously geographically variable.

I shall refrain from mentioning the latest EC32 as I appreciate the cognoscenti of the MOD thread consider it useless and altercations at this time in the morning we don't need.

The chart is merely an example, not making a point

Edited January 19, 2016 by knocker

[Weather-history]

7 hours ago, Harsh Climate said:

I've heard of a lot of SSW events being forecast/expected since 2010 and I don't think we've even had one yet. 

Ignorance of the facts.

January 2013

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2013/01/08/what-is-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-ssw/

Edited January 19, 2016 by Weather-history
,

[knocker]

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 4h

One of the most impressive stratospheric polar vortices I've seen in my limited exposure.

Edited January 19, 2016 by knocker

[coldcomfort]

14 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Finish off winter?

LOL.

Whilst it's always easy and indeed popular to laugh off suggestions such as winter is over with 5 or 6 weeks to run, the latest ECM32 suggests if not probable, it's certainly possible. The overnight runs hold little if any hope of an imminent return to cold after tomorrow, with the long draw SW'erlies likely to produce some double digit maxima for most of us early next week. By the time the next 'milder' phase is over we will imo be well into week one of Feb, meaning only another 3 weeks of official meteorological winter will then remain....so to suggest those 3 weeks won't produce a notable cold spell doesn't seem too much of a stretch to me....though hopefully that will not prove to be the case.

Edited January 19, 2016 by coldcomfort

[knocker]

Broadly speaking the ecm output this morning is not dissimilar to the GFS with HP to the south and south east with the wet and windy conditions mainly confined to the west and north west. Temps varying around average.

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 4h

One of the most impressive stratospheric polar vortices I've seen in my limited exposure.

Also says this in his Twitter account. 

"How many times have you seen N. Hem AAM hit 4 sigma? I'd don't think ever."

Maybe some of the more knowledgeable may know the answer to this and explanation why it went this high?

 

[mountain shadow]

9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Also says this in his Twitter account. 

"How many times have you seen N. Hem AAM hit 4 sigma? I'd don't think ever."

Maybe some of the more knowledgeable may know the answer to this and explanation why it went this high?

 

Record El Nino perhaps? This is GPs torpedo isn't? 

[mushymanrob]

12 hours ago, knocker said:

I must admit I wouldn't class that as a significant shift as the upper flow is still in the westerly quadrant. It's not that easy to pin down the position of the surface HP from that but even with a SE drift it wouldn't be particularly cold. Looking at the GEFS

Having said that the ext ecm tonight certainly doesn't agree and moves the UK HP to weak ridging NE to Scandinavia and and with the trough mid Atlantic introduces more zonality.

yep, i must confess that viewing the noaa's on my screen and not my tablet that i might have overstated last nights comments, although a run of straight southwesterlies like we saw in december dont look as likely as they did previously - they are still there with high close by.

trouble is with high pressure at this time of the year is that its exact position can make a huge difference as to what we get - from springlike mildness to bitterly cold.  there are imho still chances of a cold evolution - but it all depends upon whether we do get high and it does migrate to the right area..

[Evening thunder]

Back to the most boring model outputs ever again :/

[coldcomfort]

06 GFS shaping up to be even milder at 168hrs - Euro slug back in position, double digit highs for most, but on the positive side plenty of dry weather in the offing. Looks like a long route to cold from there if it verifies and with only 5 weeks of official winter left it don't look too pretty imo.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

06Z not far away from record breaking warmth, similar to Feb '98, won't let me post charts bug on forum?

Edited January 19, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[knocker]

The ecm anomaly this morning is not quite singing from the same hymn sheet as the GEFS. It has the Aleutian LP and a strong vortex N. Canada with associated trough which diminishes the adjacent HP over the UK and introduces more zonality. This is maintained throughout the ext period.

[TSNWK]

Good runs this morning! I made a snowman Sunday, the frost has reset the garden and bugs.. Thats me happy! I have had my fill  time to focus on warming up and spring

 

[wishingforsnow]

Well I for one hope February 98 doesn't happen again because then next month will probably become our 'summer' which means that summer itself can be confined to the bin 

[coldcomfort]

14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

06Z not far away from record breaking warmth, similar to Feb '98, won't let me post charts bug on forum?

Indeed.....were the 06 to verify I don't think a 15 or even a 16c would be out of the question next week across sheltered E or NE areas. Frankly if we can't have the cold, then record breaking warmth that is actually accompanied by bags of sunshine rather than ark building levels of rain will do as a substitute......but of course knowing our luck it will only lead for a very blocky, cold Apr-Jun

Edited January 19, 2016 by coldcomfort

[I remember Atlantic 252]

yes, would rather the 15C came off and dry, than the vile day of yesterday, but yes it will mean Spring is wet and below average temps

[Southender]

I would love to know what Tom Shaferwotsit is seeing that we aren't?

All I can see is HP mainly anchored to our S/SE for the rest of Jan, an angry PV riding over the top and all the cold locked in over Russia and the Black Sea countries. Whilst we remain mostly dry (the only positive) and above average to mild.

The predicted Strat warming doesn't get me excited either as that is a long long long way out, with no concrete guarantee it will bring colder weather to our shores anyway.

Hoping for a model turnaround and one of those rare last minute Easterly trains popping up within 5 days out, as that blasted slug could write off a good 2 weeks of winter opportunities, with time ticking away fast....

Obviously a long long way out this, but I do not want to be seeing charts like this for the start of Feb. If that verifies we are in big trouble and slumped against the ropes, waiting for a knockout blow to our winter...

Edited January 19, 2016 by Southender

[wishingforsnow]

Well the one thing to take from this output is that should the SSW occur in this upcoming period of milder weather, it would be more likely to result in a flip to cold anywhere from a few days to weeks which would take us to mid Feb but still. Also this is what Dr Cohen seems to be predicting:

"The perturbation of the polar vortex is likely to dominate the evolution of the temperature variability across the NH for the duration of winter.  The expected SSW should favor for much of February and even into March a negative AO, and relatively cold temperatures for the NH mid-latitude continents.  With the models predicting the PV to move into northern Eurasia we are most confident of the cold close in proximity with the position of the PV.  More uncertainty exists across North America as the flow around the PV continues to shift from westerly (warm) to northerly (cold) and now easterly."

Hopefully accurate for the incoming weeks/months

[Froze were the Days]

Dear me...looks like we're back to square 1 this morning, no signs of diddly squat in the way of cold on the horizon. Fairly anchored PV near Greenland check, strong heights over southern Europe check, little amplification check. To be honest have little faith in some of Tamara's views - I remember some posts of hers last winter referring to the positive teleconnections and what did we get? no doubt well intentioned and knowledgeable posts but still to win me over at forecasting mid to long term.

Still time and I might very well end up with egg on my face.