Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[mushymanrob]

my, theres some over generalisation going on this morning....

IF we get a mild february, and thats by no means certain, it does not mean we will get a bad summer! if the weather followed such basic patterns then the met mens job would be far easier!

look at summers of 75 and 76, both were long and hot, (76 remembered more because it was drier on the back of 75). but both had totally differing springs. 75 was cold right through to the famous june snowfall before becoming hot and dry. spring 76 was a warm one, followed by a hot summer.

too many are getting hung up on the odd op run, whilst the anomaly charts suggest that there COULD be a cold evolution, the fat lady isnt singing just yet!

[Essex snowman]

I said last week that we would get milder by end of this week and I'm sorry to say the winter from Midlands south has been awful and in latest models no sign at all of anything cold let alone snow for the foreseeable 

[mountain shadow]

Judging by Steves post on the main thread I have a feeling he will be calling Winter over for South East England based on any Strat warming being too late in the Winter for down South. 

Have to say I'm having my doubts about a strat warming actually occurring at all and GP appears to have gone awol along with his torpedo.

[cheeky_monkey]

2 hours ago, wishingforsnow said:

Well I for one hope February 98 doesn't happen again because then next month will probably become our 'summer' which means that summer itself can be confined to the bin 

cool..i like your style..writing off summer in a winter thread..i would be happy with Feb 98 scenario...followed by summer 2015 all over again as it was pretty decent in my neck of the woods.

[mushymanrob]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Judging by Steves post on the main thread I have a feeling he will be calling Winter over for South East England based on any Strat warming being too late in the Winter for down South. 

Have to say I'm having my doubts about a strat warming actually occurring at all and GP appears to have gone awol along with his torpedo.

gp cannot post here regularly due to work/time commitments.

... it has been mentioned on this thread by several of us that if we get a large upper trough in the north mid atlantic itll be hard to shift and would mean a cold/snowy spell (ie winter) would be unlikely.

[Argyle1980]

We are only in the middle of Jan,

i remember some cracking winters from the 80s down here in Cornwall ..... February 1986 was stunning , the cold and snow hung around for the best part of three weeks.

keep the faith people .

next we will be kissing the summer gone before its all ready started.

 

[wishingforsnow]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Judging by Steves post on the main thread I have a feeling he will be calling Winter over for South East England based on any Strat warming being too late in the Winter for down South. 

Have to say I'm having my doubts about a strat warming actually occurring at all and GP appears to have gone awol along with his torpedo.

March 2013 happened so who's to say it won't happen again?

Steve didn't exactly write anything off he said the next 10-15 days are worth keeping an eye on as this period should determine the likely weather pattern for February. Which we don't know yet. Who knows what will happen? The mild trend may grow to account for a milder than average, dry February or it might be an interim period before something colder happens which is just being pushed back. A SSW effect in mid February to March isn't off the cards either and though it seems to be occurring later than we would like its still another possibility.

We're all guilty of knee jerk negative reactions on here, I'll admit that but remember:

- 30 day outlooks/monthly outlooks are usually  vague after the first week or so and change with new trends constantly

- Models change and pick up new trends all the time

- We're still in mid January and whilst we're facing the prospect of milder weather for a while at least its not going to be overly wet and stormy for most

 

 

Edited January 19, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[SLEETY]

11 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

March 2013 happened so who's to say it won't happen again?

Steve didn't exactly write anything off he said the next 10-15 days are worth keeping an eye on as this period should determine the likely weather pattern for February. Which we don't know yet. Who knows what will happen? The mild trend may grow to account for a milder than average, dry February or it might be an interim period before something colder happens which is just being pushed back. A SSW effect in mid February to March isn't off the cards either and though it seems to be occurring later than we would like its still another possibility.

We're all guilty of knee jerk negative reactions on here, I'll admit that but remember:

- 30 day outlooks/monthly outlooks are usually  vague after the first week or so and change with new trends constantly

- Models change and pick up new trends all the time

- We're still in mid January and whilst we're facing the prospect of milder weather for a while at least its not going to be overly wet and stormy for most

 

march 2013 was amazing here,with one big snowstorm,id rather have march as a new winter month since its been long time since feb delivered anything decent here,why is feb rarely very snowy anymore,imstruggling to think of any decent cold spells since 1991

 

 

[mushymanrob]

3 hours ago, Argyle1980 said:

We are only in the middle of Jan,

i remember some cracking winters from the 80s down here in Cornwall ..... February 1986 was stunning , the cold and snow hung around for the best part of three weeks.

keep the faith people .

next we will be kissing the summer gone before its all ready started.

 

ha!
 

i detested feb 86.... we had no snow, just a biting cold wind that we had to work out in. the frost permeated down to 6" , and took ages to thaw out

[Harsh Climate]

I'm not checking the models until next week they are just too depressing and going nowhere fast!

[Harsh Climate]

And here's one for ya, funny how that amazing nov 2010 came after the volcanic eruptions and 'ash clouds' earlier on in the year, is that what it's going to take to give us a classic cold spell... 

[Weather-history]

19th January

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GEFS no12 so weird in FI, never in the world, cold pool just dances round us

[jethro]

5 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Judging by Steves post on the main thread I have a feeling he will be calling Winter over for South East England based on any Strat warming being too late in the Winter for down South. 

Have to say I'm having my doubts about a strat warming actually occurring at all and GP appears to have gone awol along with his torpedo.

Not being funny (and no offence intended Steve M) but it's not too long ago that Steve came out with a post which went totally against the grain of what was showing in the models and predicted a very cold, snowy period. It didn't happen, he called it wrong. I'm not being critical, I personally couldn't look at the models and predict anything more complicated than the Sun is going to rise in the morning. However, what I am saying is this weather forecast malarkey is complicated stuff, just because someone (anyone) says it will happen, or not happen, doesn't make it so. The only 100% accurate forecast is a hind cast one.

[Liam J]

Well if the latest ECM is anywhere near the mark then we can write off the rest of January... Our good old friend Euro high, we had enough of that in December!!! 

Edited January 19, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Don't mind if its dry Liam, as I am a dry weather fan when mild, but the models do seem to scream wellies and umbrellas, with Sunday looking especially soggy

[Liam J]

I hope it is dry but we need the high to be as far north as possible to be dry nationwide, what we don't need is moisture laden SW'lys bringing persistent wet weather into regions that were affected by severe flooding not so long ago... 

[igloo]

15 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Well if the latest ECM is anywhere near the mark then we can write off the rest of January... Our good old friend Euro high, we had enough of that in December!!! 

and for february also i say euro slugs can hang about for 4-5 weeks  as we seen in december and the first week of january  with the talk of a possible SSW event in the future i think thats about the only hope we have im still not convinced  forecasted SSW events are any more acurite  than looking at a 14 day chart from the GFS 

[Liam J]

Well something's very wrong when Saudi Arabia has more snow than us!!! 

And snow fell in the Tunisian Desert! Not even sure if this has ever happened before? 

[igloo]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

ha!
 

i detested feb 86.... we had no snow, just a biting cold wind that we had to work out in. the frost permeated down to 6" , and took ages to thaw out

when was the last time we had the JET stream so far south feb 86 was one such occasion 

 

 

 

[snowray]

In the meanwhile this is the 3rd month of near drought conditions for Northern Italy, things not much better in the South of France and Eastern Spain. No undercut for us of the HP that had been looking ripe to shift Northwards has consequence further South, no consistent areas of low pressure have formed in the Northern Med for some considerable time in fact.

 

Ensembles for area around Milan, Nice & Barcelona show very little in the way of PPN in the next two weeks or so. When are they going to get any rain then, the River Po I was reading is close to record lows?

Not a very good Spring maybe coming up.

[knocker]

At least the GEFS anomalies tonight are showing some variation. Much the same scenario on the 5-10 but in the ext period the mid Atlantic trough is replaced by some ridging and the HP adjacent to the UK has moved on. At this stage I don't feel this has any significance and we will probably end up back where we were.

[ReindeerMarmalade]

48 minutes ago, biggreyface said:

I see that Tomas stuffherknickers is living up to his clown Prince tag this is the first time I've had to check the models today after seeing his forecast last night I've got to say  that joke wouldn't have looked out of place on April the 1st (hopefully the euro slug will have gone by then) 

I don't know what I like about this post more: that you think him saying "perhaps, perhaps, no certainty, that some of that colder air will return to eastern parts of the UK" is some sort of cast iron guarantee of a Beast from the East and ten-foot snow drifts nationwide, or that you think official MetO forecasts are left to the whims and personality types of individual presenters  

And people wonder why MetO so often hedges its bets when there's uncertainty 

[Spah1]

America at it again. Another massive snow storm. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

lets hope it fails! it won't though