Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[northwestsnow]

Well after an absolutely vile november in the north west there is just no let up to this grey wet mild gunk, when will it end?

Those further north to here are in a desperate situation 

Edited December 5, 2015 by northwestsnow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS 00Z, think if it comes off, could be looking at one of mildest December's ever, but I think it's slightly underdoing the Atlantic, and I'm expecting the jet to be much further south from mid month, bringing the rain further south

Edited December 6, 2015 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Ravelin]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS 00Z, think if it comes off, could be looking at one of mildest December's ever, but I think it's slightly underdoing the Atlantic, and I'm expecting the jet to be much further south from mid month, bringing the rain further south

If that run comes off there'll be 'coldies' across the UK throwing themselves off tall buildings. 

[Gustywind]

I do hope this doesn't turn into another 2013-14 winter, the worst winter in my lifetime bar none (and I'm 42). 3 months of almost non stop rain and storms day after day, dreadful!

Worryingly the last couple of weeks are striking a very similar note and with a strong El Niño to boot.....

[Nick L]

Can we just have a nice, frosty high pressure for a week or two please?!

[mushymanrob]

17 hours ago, JOPRO said:

Had a read thought he mod thread from late November/ early December 2009 last night. Was really interesting to see peoples take on the models at that point of time with the benefit of hindsight. Was talk then after a warm November of patterns being locked in and the winter was going to be a mild one, and we still had Ian Brown on here peddling his ''even larger teapot'' theory! which was soon proved to be a load off guff. I have taken heart from reading that old mod thread as it goes to show what can turn up. Now I know we have new long rang forecasting tools at out disposal but we don't know how well they would have handled set ups like 2009 and 2010, My personal thoughts are we haven't had a decent cold spell to test them out yet and to see how well the pick up signals for cold spells in FI.

Look forward to hearing Steve Murr's (aka the Chosen one..........!) take on the current signals for a pattern change mid month, that's if he is aloud off the naughty step yet!?

...just for fun, try reading through last novembers (2014) thread, youll see that quite a few 'big names' were proven to be talking 'guff' - the point being that no one, ... NO ONE , knows whats going to happen. even the very best (glacier point) was wrong (and he would be the first to admit it) .

viewing the noaa anomaly charts - theres no sign of a pattern change mid month, which is quite apt really because a pattern change x weeks ahead was promised by so many last november-december. the mean upper flow for days 6-10 suggest a transitory colder snap before the 8-14 brings the upper flow back to a more south westerly one.  of course these charts might be proven incorrect, but they are also proven to be the most accurate in predicting the mean upper flow for the time period they pertain to.

so for those hoping for a pattern change mid month, (and i suspect many are) the bad news is that the noaa charts suggest that it is unlikely to happen - in this timeframe. 

for me?... ill be surprised if we keep a generally westerly based regime all winter, i do expect a pattern change (but not necessarily to very cold), just not yet.

[carinthian]

12 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Can we just have a nice, frosty high pressure for a week or two please?!

Nick, got one over here but far too mild during the day. Sad for you lot with the slug conditions. Looks like no end ? Picture on national tv here of floods up North. Could be one of the warmest Decembers on records across much of Europe,.

 C

[Nick L]

Just now, carinthian said:

Nick, got one over here but far too mild during the day. Sad for you lot with the slug conditions. Looks like no end ? Picture on national tv here of floods up North. Could be one of the warmest Decembers on records across much of Europe,.

 C

Thankfully down south we haven't had anywhere near the level of rainfall the unfortunate folks in the north have had in recent days. A brief respite for the next 24 hours but most of next week is looking unsettled, and the ECM gives a dartboard low for next weekend.

[ditch]

I fear this mild muck maybe with us for sometime, the El Niño is set to deliver above average temperatures with periods of heavy rain. I'm not writing winter off on the 6 December, but normally once a pattern is set like this, It takes weeks to change.

[JOPRO]

Not only do I detest this mild crap in winter but it Also kills the mod thread as we only get 2 pages a day if we are lucky! Used to enjoy coming back from work and catching up on that thread, now It's all over before dinner and I end up having to watch I'm a celebrity with the wife! Bring on some cold and snow not this wet mild diarrhea we keep getting from the bowls of that dam euro high.

 

[northwestsnow]

21 minutes ago, JOPRO said:

Not only do I detest this mild crap in winter but it Also kills the mod thread as we only get 2 pages a day if we are lucky! Used to enjoy coming back from work and catching up on that thread, now It's all over before dinner and I end up having to watch I'm a celebrity with the wife! Bring on some cold and snow not this wet mild diarrhea we keep getting from the bowls of that dam euro high.

 

Haha well that post cheered me up because that's EXACTLY how I feel.

Uk climate is fast turning into one perpetual autumn.

[Bradowl]

One consolation for me is if things  stay as they are now for next few weeks I'll get some nice sunny weather when I go to Spain for new year. 

[Mapantz]

I thought I'd chuck a post in here about an observation I've made.

I have a large holly tree in the garden, the last couple of years have seen huge amounts of berries on it, and they have stayed there all through Winter. This year, the amount of berries on it is definitely the most I've seen! Obviously this is down to ideal weather earlier in the year- plenty of sun and rain. However, the last few days, hundreds of birds have been ravaging in it, there's hardly any berries left on it! Take that as you will but, the last couple of years, it hasn't happened.

I'll leave it to others to decide what that may mean.

[JOPRO]

6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I thought I'd chuck a post in here about an observation I've made.

I have a large holly tree in the garden, the last couple of years have seen huge amounts of berries on it, and they have stayed there all through Winter. This year, the amount of berries on it is definitely the most I've seen! Obviously this is down to ideal weather earlier in the year- plenty of sun and rain. However, the last few days, hundreds of birds have been ravaging in it, there's hardly any berries left on it! Take that as you will but, the last couple of years, it hasn't happened.

I'll leave it to others to decide what that may mean.

Lots of bird poo!!!

[Nick L]

12 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I thought I'd chuck a post in here about an observation I've made.

I have a large holly tree in the garden, the last couple of years have seen huge amounts of berries on it, and they have stayed there all through Winter. This year, the amount of berries on it is definitely the most I've seen! Obviously this is down to ideal weather earlier in the year- plenty of sun and rain. However, the last few days, hundreds of birds have been ravaging in it, there's hardly any berries left on it! Take that as you will but, the last couple of years, it hasn't happened.

I'll leave it to others to decide what that may mean.

In terms of the weather, nothing! Sorry

[Walsall Wood Snow]

There seems to be alot of disappointment about this morning and I feel it too. However wasn't it always the case that any cold was expected later rather than sooner this Winter? After all being an El Nino year (and a strong one at that) no long range forecast promised much if anything this month. Even this sites own forecast predicted above average temperatures for this month. It did however predict cold for January and I do believe some long rangers are expecting a cold February so there's no need to get despondent  yet. The Winter is very young at the moment at 6 days. Still 85 days to go (plus some more if you include wintry potential in March and beyond). And being as cold and snow has always been much more likely in the UK post New Year most of the time still alot to play for I think. Look at this way if we do get a good spell of cold and snow after the New Year most of us won't care that it was mild and snowless in December (not that it necessarily will be) so lets think of it like that shall we. We're expecting too much too soon really.

[kag]

Over the last few days another example of how local topograghy effects weather. In Dalrymple ,near Ayr ,we received <15mm rain while Glasgow 35 miles north with less shelter from Ireland in SW rain events had 114mm. Unfortunately in snow events the same is true but that doesn't stop me searching for the holy grail in this area.

 

[Hocus Pocus]

Water, water everywhere and not a drop............ Well the last bit isn't relevant but the surrounding floodwaters sure are. Another truly abysmal week to come following on from the truly abysmal weeks beforehand.

[Milhouse]

A week full of mild brisk southwesterlies. Just what i like to see at this time of year. A quieter high pressure spell around Christmas and new year would be welcome though. Perfect for walks to work off all that Christmas stodge.

[Nick L]

Just now, Milhouse said:

A week full of mild brisk southwesterlies. Just what i like to see at this time of year. A quieter high pressure spell around Christmas and new year would be welcome though. Perfect for walks to work off all that Christmas stodge.

I'm sure the poor folks of Cumbria will have a thing or two to say to that!

[Hocus Pocus]

2 minutes ago, Milhouse said:

A week full of mild brisk southwesterlies. Just what i like to see at this time of year. A quieter high pressure spell around Christmas and new year would be welcome though. Perfect for walks to work off all that Christmas stodge.

Try telling that to those who are flooded, I'm sure they'll agree with you.

Edited December 6, 2015 by Hocus Pocus

[Fingers]

Looking at the 3 month means for the NAO attached, it appears that once locked in to a strong positive or negative NAO pattern of around +2/-2 (as we are currently in) they can be dominant for quite a period of time..... Sadly! 

It's only a mean but this leans towards a much more mobile pattern with limited chance of sustained cold likely with limited blocking over Greenland and the pole. 

Need that current last red spike to be as thin as possible and not fat bottomed! Looking at previous cycles, there's not too many periods of short lived 2+ NAO rapidly leading to a super negative NAO. 78/79 looks like our closest comparison. 

Interesting to also see the set up around the 1997 Nino with a negative NAO but not a cold winter and what we'd give for a 2010 set up!

Clem

Edited December 6, 2015 by Fingers

[Nick L]

Just now, Thunderbolt_ said:

I do like these south-westerlies, I agree. It's just a shame that they have come with the diabolic consequence of severe flooding in Cumbria; the people my heart goes out to, at the moment. If these winds had been less moist, then they would have been even better.

But that's one of the problems I have with mild - it often goes hand in hand with dull skies and/or unsettled weather. It's not often you get mild, settled and sunny at the same time in winter.

[Liam J]

Really hoping for something dry and settled to turn up soon, don't care whether it's mild, cold or dull as long as it's dry....We really cannot cope with any further rainfall, sadly that isn't going to happen this week with more worrying times ahead for flood hit areas with further rainfall forecast... 

Edited December 6, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, JOPRO said:

Not only do I detest this mild crap in winter but it Also kills the mod thread as we only get 2 pages a day if we are lucky! 

 

i mentioned this in the MOD thread a couple of weeks. The Pro Forecasters and longer range models are getting so good that any sudden cold spell suddenly appearing is just not going to happen anymore.

At least we can have faith that a proper cold spell is likely in mid to late February,early March.