Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[JOPRO]

7 minutes ago, joggs said:

Could another 1997/1998 debacle be on the cards.

To quote Victor Meldrew ''Please for the love of god no!!!!!'' At least we had the winter of 95/96 and 96/97 before that mild love in!!

[mushymanrob]

a completely mild winter cannot be ruled out. they do happen. it wouldnt surprise me that sooner or later we will get a record breaking mild one.

the anomaly charts give no hope at all in the next 2 weeks of any sustained cold, its looking average at worse (or coldest) with the possibility of some very mild days.

but theres plenty of time for this pattern to break, the point is that when theres a sceuro high, that could easily migrate northwards and take up residence over scandinavia.

[Bristawl Si]

The 'Heart' of Winter is still 5 weeks away. Plenty of time for changes in the weather. Or........

More of the same.

Down these parts we could easily see mild, mild, mild all the way thru Winter. Not that unusual for our 'local' Winters.

[snow freak]

Really starting to hate this winter now.  just a constant rinse and repeat scenario reminiscent of the winter of 2013.  To anyone who says our weather is fascinating because its so unpredictable is wrong, its not unpredictable, I can guarantee that any year we will have heavy rains and winds and mild temperatures.  that is not unpredicatability in my book.

[snow freak]

16 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

a completely mild winter cannot be ruled out. they do happen. it wouldnt surprise me that sooner or later we will get a record breaking mild one.

the anomaly charts give no hope at all in the next 2 weeks of any sustained cold, its looking average at worse (or coldest) with the possibility of some very mild days.

but theres plenty of time for this pattern to break, the point is that when theres a sceuro high, that could easily migrate northwards and take up residence over scandinavia.

in the East Midlands the last 2 years have been mild winters more or less completely so if this winter is mild too then that's 3 on the trot.  I don't think I can take anymore.

[Weather-history]

38 minutes ago, joggs said:

Could another 1997/1998 debacle be on the cards.

At this stage in December 1997, already had a day of lying snow, a minimum of -5C recorded and there was still that short lived easterly to come. 

Winter 1997-98 did not start out a total disaster, some places saw some wintry weather even at this stage for parts of England and Wales. What finally nailed the coffin in that winter was that February even that month wasn't totally devoid of wintry weather. 

[Polar Maritime]

Winter is only just starting with us only being 9 days in. 

[MP-R]

The second half of January 1998 was also very blocked and chilly, though not especially cold. The unsettled period was generally from the 20thish of December until 10thish of January.

There's often talk of the summer pattern not establishing itself until around the solstice, so I'm guessing this applies to winter as well to a certain degree? Someone more knowledgeable will have to offer some more insight into that.

[Costa Del Fal]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Tweet from Ian F this morning

found some daffs in full bloom already" yes and butterflies reported too in parts of W Country. El Niño!

 

 

 

Yep saw a butterfly here the other day too.

[lawrenk]

From the seasonal forecasts I've read (including Netweather's) winter is, thus far, proceeding exactly as predicted so no cause for despondency yet in my opinion.

It was always likely that a proper cold spell (assuming we get one) will materialise later on and if this happens some time during January/early February as per the NW Forecast that will be fine by me.

Saying this, in April 2008 we had a blanket of now right down to Eastbourne sea front so plenty of time left yet!

[Weather-history]

The current weather pattern reminds me more of 1898-99 than 1997-98. 

Wasn't there a strong El Niño in 1898-99?   November 1898 was very mild until about the 20th then there was a cold snap not unlike what happen last November but a bit more potent and longer lasting. By December 1898, it became very mild again. The next two winter months were not as mild and the spring was on the cool side.

[Azazel]

I'm not a coldie by any stretch of the imagination, but this is just ridiculous. I can't believe Christmas is just 2 weeks away and its almost warm enough to go out in a t-shirt:/

For me down here, 2015 has just been one big perpetual Autumn. Absolutely atrocious year devoid of any interesting weather bar about 3 days overall. I was hoping for a cold/snowy winter to break the monotony and chain of wet/windy/mild winters but no sign of that until at least January. We all know the synoptics we all want will come along in April when its too late to really tap into long-lived cold and when everyone is looking for heat/storms.

 

Dross.

[snowtimenow]

Well that's it for me Ive done checking in to see when the colds coming I'm just going to go with the flow and pray and hope we get a very big surprise sooner than later 

Worst Autumn and start of winter for me... Ruined 

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Costa Del Fal said:

Yep saw a butterfly here the other day too.

I saw wasps flying around in late November, though I haven't been paying attention recently. Not only that, but some trees still have leaves.. I was at Sainsbury's recently and some trees in the car park were in full leaf.

 

The past few days have been dry, sunny and mild which is absolutely fine by me.  As long as it ain't raining and the sun is shining.

Edited December 9, 2015 by cheese

[Carl46Wrexham]

1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

Winter is only just starting with us only being 9 days in. 

Is it winter? Come on now...pull the other one. 

 

[Continental Climate]

What a desperately poor winter this is turning out to be on net weather. The MOD thread is no fun and with the science getting better every year with regard the strat etc it seems that we can now legitimately write off the next month as being without interest. Maybe certain posters were right when they said the fun is being taken away by all the science. Not that I'm criticising the science lol I'm not a luddite its just that I am now convinced of nothing of note until at least mid January it makes it all a bit predictable doesn't it?

[johnholmes]

10 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

What a desperately poor winter this is turning out to be on net weather. The MOD thread is no fun and with the science getting better every year with regard the strat etc it seems that we can now legitimately write off the next month as being without interest. Maybe certain posters were right when they said the fun is being taken away by all the science. Not that I'm criticising the science lol I'm not a luddite its just that I am now convinced of nothing of note until at least mid January it makes it all a bit predictable doesn't it?

bring back the pre model era, listening with hope and anticipation every day to the Radio 4 1255 or 1755 regional forecast!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 hours ago, JOPRO said:

Well great looks like any cold weather has disappeared from the charts like a fart in a mild south westerly wind!!! Am sure the 'told you so brigade' will be out in force on the mod thread today, back to 1 page a day on that thread it is then with knocker posting relentless charts showing long draw south westerlys and talking about a mammoth crop of daffs , at this rate they will have gone over by the spring!! Well the search for cold starts again, still lots to play for, only 9th December! Chin up Coldies we will have our day!!!!!!

 

I'm contemplating putting him on my ignore list, which disappoints me as he's usually right, but I'm getting a bit tired of "no signs of cold in the woodshed" "daffs doing nicely" and cherry-picking outputs which, as you say, show air sourced from somewhere near the equator!

[mountain shadow]

5 hours ago, Continental Climate said:

What a desperately poor winter this is turning out to be on net weather. The MOD thread is no fun and with the science getting better every year with regard the strat etc it seems that we can now legitimately write off the next month as being without interest. Maybe certain posters were right when they said the fun is being taken away by all the science. Not that I'm criticising the science lol I'm not a luddite its just that I am now convinced of nothing of note until at least mid January it makes it all a bit predictable doesn't it?

Aye. It was me that said improvement in longer term forecasts had taken the fun out of the model output thread. This time of year is normally a busy one and we are struggling to get through a page a day.

Even BFTP has finally thrown in the towel with his cold mid December forecast. 

The Stratospheric thread is really the place to look now. Any daft GFS runs can henceforth be ignored. 

[Paul]

And yet, only yesterday was the first 'rollercoaster' day of the season in the model thread with a bit of excitement over a cold run. It's slim pickings at the moment though..

[igloo]

On 12/6/2015 at 10:26 PM, Nick L said:

How anyone can describe this first week as "normal winter fare" is beyond me! Have some folks not seen the news lately...

 

On 12/6/2015 at 10:26 PM, Nick L said:

How anyone can describe this first week as "normal winter fare" is beyond me! Have some folks not seen the news lately...

normal for my area 200ml

[igloo]

this is really turning in to normal el nino winter jet stream way north nothing but euro highs which is a disaster for the european ski resorts this could well be the mildest and wettest december for many a year and history tells us january will be the exact same don't expect any change till mid february

Edited December 9, 2015 by igloo

[Liam J]

Looking too far ahead for cold! Right under our noses it looks like winter pays a visit to the north this weekend, just not the south! Huge temperature contrast... Maybe even some snow! 

 

Edited December 9, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Mokidugway]

Hit and miss but better than nowt I guess ...

[snow freak]

4 hours ago, lawrenk said:

From the seasonal forecasts I've read (including Netweather's) winter is, thus far, proceeding exactly as predicted so no cause for despondency yet in my opinion.

It was always likely that a proper cold spell (assuming we get one) will materialise later on and if this happens some time during January/early February as per the NW Forecast that will be fine by me.

Saying this, in April 2008 we had a blanket of now right down to Eastbourne sea front so plenty of time left yet!

God I hope not. snow in April is not worth it as it only stays around for a few hours in the morning before the strong sun melts it.  What's the point.  The UK weather is so topsy turvy.  Cool weather in summer and mild weather in winter.  Unless we have the occasional 'freak' spells.