Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

feel ECM underdoing the Atlantic, good chart, respite for the flooded areas, could even be a genuine cold day in the east

0Z will have more low pressure though

 

[jethro]

28 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Thanks Jethro.  Good to hear it's normal for this species. I thought the tree thought it was Spring. Going to have a look on Wikipedia to make sure.

Looks like your reassuringly right.

You're not alone, those species confuse many people most years. Another one is mahonia - panicles of yellow flowers, depending upon variety can be in flower from October through to April, witch hazel also gets many folk - it's a winter flowerer too. I only know this stuff because I'm a professional gardener.

[phil nw.]

17 minutes ago, jethro said:

You're not alone, those species confuse many people most years. Another one is mahonia - panicles of yellow flowers, depending upon variety can be in flower from October through to April, witch hazel also gets many folk - it's a winter flowerer too. I only know this stuff because I'm a professional gardener.

Yes Jethro the 2 magnolias in our garden are budding nicely, as normal.Winter jasmine also covered in yellow flowers.My mahonias must be the later variety.usually they show late Feb through to April.

I have cut down a lot of perennials again without any frost damage-just thought they needed a rest before they show again-probably early the way things are going .lol 

[78/79]

Despite what the Met O regard as winter for stats purposes, In my book winter doesn't start until 21st Dec the winter solstice.and goes on until 21st March. I  think people are expecting winter weather in what is in reality ,late Autumn . Back before computer models had taken on an almost god like status, we had to wait until Sunday evening for the Country file forecast, in some respects it was in someways better because you had a little bit of disappointment if the forecast wasn't what you were hoping for , but it was really great when Ian Mcaskill or Michael Fish would say" At the end of the week it's going to turn very much colder" instead of the blow by blow account that you now have 

[Paul_1978]

I don't know about anyone else but I'm not particularly worried about the mild spell and the continuation of this for now. 

Today it is 9th December. All long range forecasts I've seen say mild and wet and windy in he fiat half of winter. That's what's happening now. 

The the positive now is that the second half of winter is anticipated to be colder than normal, although the further ahead we go then obviously the confidence decreases. 

But for now I don't see the big panic if you're a coldie - we've got the anticipated colder second half to look forward to. 

Edited December 9, 2015 by Paul_1978

[daz_4]

Not surprised at all.  We've had mediterranean climate for almost  three years now. Europe flooded with warm air and almost no rain. Grass is growing and trees are ready to bloom here. Another week or two of this weather and nature will really think it's spring.

 

[Frost HoIIow]

We have a lag effect to our seasons in which early Winter is usually the mildest part, with Jan & Feb the colder months with more snow on average. Same with Summer but the opposite - June is usually the coolest part of Summer despite the very long daylight. Plenty of time yet for much colder weather & widespread snows - we're only 9 days almost 10 into Winter. Take early 2013 for example at xmas 2012 I wondered if we was going to see any snow that Winter as up until then there had been nothing and then things started to change big time mid Jan with a SSW. I think we should relax & enjoy xmas as I doubt there will be any big changes before then. I think we were spoilt by Dec 2010 and to a certain extent 2009 as well so this skews thinking about December. Yes it's disappointing to not see proper falls of snow yet but in my lifetime I have seen more snowier January's and February's than December's. It's the weather and it will do what it wants. No point in getting wound up about it.

Edited December 10, 2015 by Medlock Vale

[stevofunnelcl]

I looked at the Met Office extended outlook, now goes to Jan 7th

Nothing but the same, mild, wet & windy.

Still shaping up to be non-stop Autumn

I do hope Winter makes an appearance (Mid January, or February)

That winter window is shrinking.

Last year i had to go to the Mountains of Scotland to get my Snow-Fix

[snowangel32]

17 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

 

Hope for coldies

[Nick L]

You know things are bad when you're having to dredge up charts from the deepest darkest depths of the GFS.

[snowangel32]

But it's an FI that wasn't there yesterday, it still shows that all cards are on the table.

And what is FI at the moment with the models flipping from one solution to another it shows something is afoot and all scenarios are still on the table wether it be Cold or a mild evolution.

We all presumed yesterday that because the models were showing mild conditions in FI that it was set in stone, but this mornings Gfs shows us nothing is decided either way.

Edited December 10, 2015 by snowangel32

[Liam J]

To be fair the GFS is the one doing most of the flipping around, inconsistent is an understatement....

Who gave the ECM an early Christmas present, a blow torch? 

  

Edited December 10, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Timmytour]

Just posted on the December CET thread about this year looking likely to join just six others where the combined CETs for November and December were 15C or above. There's no distinct trend either way as to what the ensuing first two months of the following year. What we could really wish for is a repeat of the February 1853 - one of the coldest of all times (and the March afterwards was pretty chilly too).  More realisticlly we could look to 1953 for inspiration.

Here we are today



Here's 1953

 

And here six weeks later on into that 1953/54 winter...

[joggs]

I'd take a blowtorch dry spell to dry out

[Ravelin]

You know, not everywhere is consistently mild. We've had our mild spells up here too but the forecast highs for the next few days are 4, 4, 3 & 2C. Also, see my sig. Wouldn't take much of a southward shift of the Jetstream to see that replicated across most of the UK, it's just getting that shift that's the problem. 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes some snowfall forecast for the N/W today. With the mountain ranges getting a good covering.

 

[mountain shadow]

6 hours ago, snowangel32 said:

But it's an FI that wasn't there yesterday, it still shows that all cards are on the table.

Unfortunately it doesn't mean that at all. This is just another random GFS FI which has zero support from anything else.

Not the ECM, not the Met Office,  not the Strat, not the GEFS and more importantly not the Santa shaker.

[Ravelin]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Unfortunately it doesn't mean that at all. This is just another random GFS FI which has zero support from anything else.

Not the ECM, not the Met Office,  not the Strat, not the GEFS and more importantly not the Santa shaker.

Oh come on Ms,  have some festive spirit. Next you'll be telling us you don't believe in Santa. 

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, Ravelin said:

Oh come on Ms,  have some festive spirit. Next you'll be telling us you don't believe in Santa. 

Why would I say that? I love Santa.

Those random GFS WTF FIs are doing my head in as they have no basis in reality and give us hope where there is none.

[snowangel32]

42 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Unfortunately it doesn't mean that at all. This is just another random GFS FI which has zero support from anything else.

Not the ECM, not the Met Office,  not the Strat, not the GEFS and more importantly not the Santa shaker.

A trend has to start somewhere right, wether it be mild or cold, yesterday Gfs showed mild and there was posts even from myself that December and Xmas will be mild, so what's the difference I have seen many times that the Gfs has picked out a trend in FI and it has had no support but in the end it came to fruition. Normally shortwave drama that scuppers any chance of a cold spell. So my point being why do we take at face value when it shows mild outlook which we know is the models default to show zonal. But if it shows a cold outlook it is swatted away as it's just FI and won't happen one day it will. 

[legritter]

What the GFS gives ,the ECM taketh away .

but  i,v got my fingers crossed ,straws are sat on the table ,sacks of salt piled up in the Wood shed ,off down asda tomorrow for a winter stock up ,dont want to get caught out with no food during christmas freeze and raging Blizzards .crikey black birds sat today counting the berries on the bushes ,what do they know that we dont ,

[Liam J]

If the GFS is picking out trends in FI we would have had a cold spell by now, look back over the MOD over the last few weeks or more and you'll see it was looking promising for cold weather on more than one occasion in FI, and yet we are still waiting, and waiting...

Edited December 10, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[mushymanrob]

23 hours ago, snow freak said:

in the East Midlands the last 2 years have been mild winters more or less completely so if this winter is mild too then that's 3 on the trot.  I don't think I can take anymore.

we had a mini freeze starting on boxing day last winter, i wouldnt call the last two winters mild so much as lacking much deep cold.

21 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

 

I'm contemplating putting him on my ignore list, which disappoints me as he's usually right, but I'm getting a bit tired of "no signs of cold in the woodshed" "daffs doing nicely" and cherry-picking outputs which, as you say, show air sourced from somewhere near the equator!

sorry but thats daft.

how can he or anyone post anything other then what the model outputs are actually showing? there is no sign of anything cold (for more then 48 hours) for most of the uk. are you suggesting posting 'mild' charts shouldnt be posted as they upset 'coldies'?

thats daft

this is a weather forum, and despite the short sighted moaning about what they dont think is 'interesting' there IS plenty of interesting weather as weather encompasses the whole varied range we get here in the uk.

meanwhile theres still no tangible sign of a pattern change, but the noaa charts di suggest high pressure becoming more dominant around the uk for a while. theres still opportunity for that to drift northward and settle over scandinavia - a long shot, but its feasible.

[Azazel]

Something incredibly depressing at looking at my weather app on my phone and seeing double digit temps for the foreseeable future.

 

regarding seasons, i've started thinking about it like this -

Dec - Feb (Winter),

March - April (Spring)

May - July (Summer)

August - November (Autumn)

or just Autumn all the time.

[snow freak]

55 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Something incredibly depressing at looking at my weather app on my phone and seeing double digit temps for the foreseeable future.

 

regarding seasons, i've started thinking about it like this -

Dec - Feb (Winter),

March - April (Spring)

May - July (Summer)

August - November (Autumn)

or just Autumn all the time.

I'm going with perpetual Autumn