Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Relativistic]

This month has so far been a complete horror show. I am so desperate for a change to more seasonal conditions. They just aren't coming though. Ever.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Relativistic Sting Jet said:

This month has so far been a complete horror show. I am so desperate for a change to more seasonal conditions. They just aren't coming though. Ever.

 

could be worse, Dec is the wettest month of the year, and first 8 days have been mostly dry, most fully dry, sure same for your area

[Relativistic]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

could be worse, Dec is the wettest month of the year, and first 8 days have been mostly dry, most fully dry, sure same for your area

I can't even begin to imagine the horrors that those in Cumbria are going through. The current pattern needs to end.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Relativistic Sting Jet said:

I can't even begin to imagine the horrors that those in Cumbria are going through. The current pattern needs to end.

 

can't see it ending, ECM is onto something I reckon, raging zonality in FI, floods will become more common, (if they are not already)

[Relativistic]

 

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

can't see it ending, ECM is onto something I reckon, raging zonality in FI, floods will become more common, (if they are not already)

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Relativistic Sting Jet said:

 

 

Agree, horrid to think

[mountain shadow]

8 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Model thread is all over the place - everything from "no sign of cold into the New Year" to "northerly and lying snow in 10 days' time"

That's only if you take the normal daily model output alone to work out a forecast.

There is nothing which supports HLB at the moment. The odd loony gfs run should not be taken as gospel in isolation.

[conor123]

Unfortunately the blandest, mildest most sunless run aka the ECM is always the one that happens these days.

Immune to any other weather here since August 2013!

[The Enforcer]

Well with GFS/ECM complete opposites, how about a happy medium: not as cold as GFS 12z, but not as mild as ECM 12z. A middle-ground scenario could lead to a reasonable prospect of some snow for higher ground, particularly in the north.

[damianslaw]

I'm going to leave model watching for a week now, just decided. Sometimes its good not to look at any models or forecasts from time time, and then you might get a surprise. By this time next week, the start of the Christmas period will be on the horizon.. I just have a feeling the next few days are going to make miserable viewing for anyone wanting colder more seasonal weather with that azores/euro high in residence, fingers crossed a more definite signal for more seasonal weather at least will occur when I next view them. Indeed that's it - I'm not going to view this forum for a week (its going to be hard to do this, I've tried it before and failed many a time)..

[northwestsnow]

18Z is enough to make me feel a bit sick to be honest, just rain rain and more rain.

[Nick L]

12 hours ago, Northernlights said:

Just  posted this in the Scottish thread;

Well here goes  I predict  proper winter will arrive just before Christmas with a fair bit of snow and frost. How do I know this I have just seen Highland Council burning diesel in an empty gritter/snowplough going round the local  side roads.  Probably showing new driver round the route but could have done it in a van. Have they had a  warning issued from sources we do not see? Most unusual behaviour. Are they preparing for the holiday period with relief drivers?

Edited 1 hour ago by Northernlights

Of course I could be totally wrong but with all the councils cutting back was strange to see.

 

To be fair, the gritters are often out in clear weather even when the air temperature is 3-5c. Road temperatures can run up to 5c below the air temperature in clear and calm conditions. The public often erroneously associate seeing gritters with severe winter weather. And councils tend to have a fully listed rota of drivers, regardless of Xmas!

Having provided roads forecasts for councils has given me a really interesting insight into how their operations work, and also given me more respect for them, they're often on a hiding to nothing! Much like us poor forecasters

Edited December 9, 2015 by Nick L

[Northernlights]

2 hours ago, Nick L said:

To be fair, the gritters are often out in clear weather even when the air temperature is 3-5c. Road temperatures can run up to 5c below the air temperature in clear and calm conditions. The public often erroneously associate seeing gritters with severe winter weather. And councils tend to have a fully listed rota of drivers, regardless of Xmas!

Having provided roads forecasts for councils has given me a really interesting insight into how their operations work, and also given me more respect for them, they're often on a hiding to nothing! Much like us poor forecasters

Hi Nick  a couple of points  when I observed this the temperature was 8c with a strong SW wind. The last  cold snap of the 29th/30th November  2015 no gritters appeared even on the school bus route and the roads became just sheet ice of about one inch thick after the snowfall  for about 36 hours with several cars going off the road into fences and then carrying on into fields.

 In the councils defence  I have to say council tax has been frozen for quite a few years now in Scotland and they are having to prioritise. From local sources I know that several old snowploughs gritters  in this area have  been scrapped and not replaced so road clearance this winter is going to be very patchy .

 

[Nick L]

Just now, Northernlights said:

Hi Nick  a couple of points  when I observed this the temperature was 8c with a strong SW wind. The last  cold snap of the 29th/30th November  2015 no gritters appeared even on the school bus route and the roads became just sheet ice of about one inch thick after the snowfall  for about 36 hours with several cars going off the road into fences and then carrying on into fields.

 In the councils defence  I have to say council tax has been frozen for quite a few years now in Scotland and they are having to prioritise. From local sources I know that several old snowploughs gritters  in this area have  been scrapped and not replaced so road clearance this winter is going to be very patchy .

 

Unfortunately grit can be pretty useless when it comes to heavy snowfall, although I don't know how bad it was for you guys.

[The PIT]

We play spot the gritter here.  The council used to count the grit out per single grain per foot until we got to spring and then they dumped loads of the stuff.

The council then sold the contract to a private company who don't bother and Joe public have to clear the roads for them.

 

Anyway back to the weather. Models still over the place for this weekend it now maybe cold with sleet rather than double figures temps.

Edited December 9, 2015 by The PIT

[snowangel32]

Looking at the latest charts grit wont be an issue but rain definately will, Hate to say it but i am writing of any cold spell for December lets hope the forecasters are right for end of January to get alot colder. Because at the moment its just yukky mild mush.

[northwestsnow]

Its like groundhog day again, wind and rain,wind and rain.

The Euro high is just refusing to let go!!!!

[Frank Trough]

looking at the ouput this morning going forwards on a broadscale (i.e. euro heights, SW winds) there surely has to be a decent shot (as it stands) that this will become the mildest December on record? Was 1934 the mildest at 8.1?

Getting towards the middle of December and I've scraped my car windscreen once.

I'm really hoping the Netweather forecast for January comes to fruition.

 

[Liam J]

Yeah same here, 9th December and I haven't had to de-ice my car in a morning either!! CET running around 5c above average so far.... Really need some dry & settled weather as we cannot take any more water up here!! 

Edited December 9, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[knocker]

Tweet from Ian F this morning

found some daffs in full bloom already" yes and butterflies reported too in parts of W Country. El Niño!

 

 

 

[mountain shadow]

Dreadful output this morning for cold and snow lovers. 

Good news for the Pro Seasonal Forecasters who have predicted this. With the Strat starting to look a little interesting we hopefully will see that elusive cold spell later in the Winter.

[Liam J]

Yep and a rather more worrying tweet with a possible continuation of the unsettled weather into the new year... Please make it stop and give us some dry weather!!

 

[northwestsnow]

Its shocking Liam, my heart really goes out to those affected by all this rain.I'm fed up of it but what i feel is nothing compared to those in the flood zone.

I looked at the early runs and just shook my head.

IAfter last December i thought it couldn't get any worse....

[JOPRO]

Well great looks like any cold weather has disappeared from the charts like a fart in a mild south westerly wind!!! Am sure the 'told you so brigade' will be out in force on the mod thread today, back to 1 page a day on that thread it is then with knocker posting relentless charts showing long draw south westerlys and talking about a mammoth crop of daffs , at this rate they will have gone over by the spring!! Well the search for cold starts again, still lots to play for, only 9th December! Chin up Coldies we will have our day!!!!!!

Edited December 9, 2015 by JOPRO

[joggs]

Could another 1997/1998 debacle be on the cards.