Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yes a nice 6z run, The 2nd half of December looks to be much more seasonal for the time of year. Has been so mild of late..

The sooner we can get some drier weather as well the better the ground can't take much more rain now could be getting on for 36 hours of near non stop rain for some parts this weekend

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

11 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

It's been like this ever since I started looking on here, maybe 3 years ago now. It's the nature of the beast where weather is concerned, there's never going to be just one interpretation of the outcome, especially the further beyond 5 days you get. 

You have to start forming your own opinion, and yes, the 'truth' usually lies somewhere in the middle of the two extremes. Personally, in my opinion there's enough runs recently showing similar enough outcomes that I think a "pattern change" is likely, but not "nailed on" mid month. Now whether that will bring widespread, low-level snow across the UK, I'm not so sure. I think it will be marginal. Possibly some sightings of snow within mosty cold rain.

Since my major obsession at the moment is snow in the Austrian Alps prior to my skiing trip on Boxing Day I'd happily take any of the last few GFS FIs.

 

From glancing at the outputs as they've been quoted, I had much the same impression, which is heartening given that you're much more experienced than I am!  I suppose I was thinking as much about newcomers to model outputs an to the forum, who might well be getting quite confused.  Enjoy your skiing trip!

[Polar Maritime]

Alot more to come before things start settling down, Wye/Lathkill/Derwent rivers are very nealy breaching there banks here down in the valleys. I expect there will be more flooding over the next week.

Edited December 4, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Relativistic]

2 hours ago, MPG said:

OK, cheers see you next winter....oh hang on its December 4th.........the forth day of winter.

When is December ever cold and snowy??? Ok you have 2010, that spoilt us. If we didn't have 2010 all this moaning about no cold in the reliable time frame wouldn't happen.

You clearly misunderstood me, or perhaps I didn't make it clear. I am not looking for super cold weather at the moment (although that would be nice), I just want to see the end of this extremely mild spell that we have been enduring for weeks now. I just want something more average, some frosty days now and then, some single figure maxima, etc. We may be only four days into December, but we are well over four weeks into this horribly mild and unseasonable pattern. And yet the end is still not in sight.

When I said "I give up" I was not referring to Winter at all, but the current spell of relentless, unseasonably mild weather. I am sorry that my post caused you some frustration.

[Costa Del Fal]

2 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

My moan is based upon how the same model outputs can be interpreted in totally different ways in the MOD thread.  Purely in today's posts so far, we've had one post to the effect of "GFS off on one, won't accept there's any pattern change coming before the New Year until Met Office mention it and John Holmes sees it in the 500mb anomaly charts" and another saying something along the lines of  "Pattern-change nailed-on mid-month".  I suspect the truth is, as always, somewhere between those two extremes, but it doesn't help those like me who are not expert model output interpreters to work out the most likely evolution.

This is perhaps the spice of life. Everyone has different interpretations, different stances, sees things that somebody else doesn't and can change opinions. Makes things interesting and fluid. Would be boring otherwise!

[knocker]

I'm normally filled with much trepidation when I read comments such as "The pattern change to a blocked is pretty certain" as it nearly always presages the unseemly sight of grown men weeping.

[johnholmes]

 John Holmes sees it in the 500mb anomaly charts"

I wonder who suggested that?

[Evening thunder]

20 hours ago, carinthian said:

Must say if I as living in the south, the past 2 months would drive me mad, relentless dullness, SW moisture and tiresome mild temps day in- day out. I am glad I got out 10 years ago !  Having said that the past few months here have been boring, day in , day out  under Euro High, granted lots of sunshine though. A bit of a cold snap last week with some snow but that is retreating quickly up the mountain and temps on the rise again. The first 7 days of winter in your part of the world must rank as one of the warmest ever. Crap start to winter all over much of Europe.

 C

Lol yes, think it has driven me a bit mad.. or it is getting to me at least, don't normally moan this much.

Still I guess it could be worse (just), saw a bit of sun today, and maybe will on the occasional PM day, which the ECM was a bit better for this morning. Some GFS runs are actually quite good for a mix of weather out into FI, but I'm not gunna let that get my hopes up yet.

Something interesting happened yesterday evening, a 1 minute burst of heavy rain.. blimey. Though the main squall went north of course.

15 hours ago, Severe Blizzard said:

My sentiments exactly. I think 2015 has been a truly vile year in Guildford which culminated in a truly vile November, rain total being 48.1 mm (72%) over 20 rain days - so, a dry month with frequent rain.  Guildford was also shrouded in fog all day on the 1st and 2nd where the rest of the UK had gorgeous sunshine and unprecedented warmth. 

Extremely boring weather in 2015 - never had so many bike rides ruined by drizzle and rain only to arrive home and find 0.5~2 mm has fallen - enough to get soaked but not enough to be interesting.

This area missed the snow last January, missed all the thunderstorms through the summer with nearby areas having copious events and now all this incessant drizzle with frequent stupid small amounts of rain.

Set-up is remarkably like last year - that bl**dy Azores high again - which will no doubt lead to another winter situation which I loathe - cold zonality with snow in the north (usually Reading northwards) so we miss out yet again. Prefer a blowtorch dry and mild S.W.ly like December 1988 / January 1989 to missing more interesting weather while accompanied by more vile dross and muck in the south, when the  rest of the UK sees the usual variety with cold zonality ('weather jealousy'!) . I thought last winter was the nastiest since 2005/2006 and I am not ready for round two of nasty winters yet!

I think it would take a divine miracle to get heights to rise to the north and N.E. to give the south a favourable E.N.E. flow to bring snow and some real excitement here. In the mean time one can wish for high pressure to cover the UK to result in a much needed proper dry spell, some much needed sunshine and perhaps some frosts,   

Yes we had low cloud rather than the warm sunshine to start the month (funnily enough it was just as warm yesterday as those days). 
We had a few weakish/distant storms this year but nothing much really.

And yes the Azores high has to be one of the most overrated weather systems out there.. Generally sits to the SW/W feeding boring relatively mild (or coolish in summer) stuff over us.. 

8 hours ago, carinthian said:

 Nick, I agree looks grim for the mountains, but would rather be here than having to face what the UK has had to endure and still is. Poor sods, especially after a crap summer up north and a frostless winter last year on the south coast. Lets hope thing change for all of us, I mean snow  and cruel frost ! I now switch off the BBC World Weather presentation, just the same picture shown for Europe, sunshine, Euro High and double didget temps and as for Blighty, nightmare scenario, it makes me feel bad, however the German channels are just as gloomy, holding no hope for cold weather for the next 10 days. Christmas Markets will be green and cheerless.

 C 

 C

Kind of surprising if there were frostless locations but guess there may have been, I had -6.7C in December and -5C in January. One good thing about my location and areas around Exeter is a bit of a frost hollow effect (if we manage a clear calm night), meaning we will never go a winter without frost thankfully. Even 2013-14 had more than a dozen.

[mountain shadow]

Good old GFS.  Hero to zero in six hours.

Are we sure it has been upgraded.?

[Liam J]

The GEFS were upgraded not sure about the GFS @mountain shadow .... GFS gone back to what it was showing just a few days ago, can we really say a pattern change is nailed on yet? 

Edited December 4, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[mountain shadow]

I'm not convinced a pattern change is coming ar all. Still zonal as far as I can see.

[phil nw.]

14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm not convinced a pattern change is coming ar all. Still zonal as far as I can see.

Yes still looking Atlantic driven based on the 00z ens.

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Just a suggestion of more average temperatures from week 2 though with signs of the mean jet further south.

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Monday 14th shocker washout, sure though it's right this run, wish by then we in the south could have this mild, dry 12C weather back

[stainesbloke]

The vile wind is back all too soon, ugh. Looks like a lot more of it to come. 

[cheeky_monkey]

12 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm not convinced a pattern change is coming ar all. Still zonal as far as I can see.

its a classic strng el nino set up from what i can see ...i see very little change this month and probably not any real change on into the middle of January 

[Nick L]

I do not expect to have to have my window open most of the night in December. Ergh.

[cheshire snow]

All standard December weather showing in the models at the moment,

Dispite some excitement in the MOD thread,yes looks like turning

Cooler with snow for the Highlands and at times during brief PM shots

The snow could fall briefly to lower levels,certainly cannot find any

Prolonged cold at the moment.

C.S

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Not been bad Dec so far here, 5 dry days out of 5, (although rain Thurs evening), would expect Dec to be wet all the time

 

suppose the south will have to pay for this, will turn wet mid month, floods for Xmas (South), wouldn't bet against it

[JOPRO]

Had a read thought he mod thread from late November/ early December 2009 last night. Was really interesting to see peoples take on the models at that point of time with the benefit of hindsight. Was talk then after a warm November of patterns being locked in and the winter was going to be a mild one, and we still had Ian Brown on here peddling his ''even larger teapot'' theory! which was soon proved to be a load off guff. I have taken heart from reading that old mod thread as it goes to show what can turn up. Now I know we have new long rang forecasting tools at out disposal but we don't know how well they would have handled set ups like 2009 and 2010, My personal thoughts are we haven't had a decent cold spell to test them out yet and to see how well the pick up signals for cold spells in FI.

Look forward to hearing Steve Murr's (aka the Chosen one..........!) take on the current signals for a pattern change mid month, that's if he is aloud off the naughty step yet!?

[I Cumbria Marra I]

AWFUL start to winter, no sun, constant rain and strong winds, some people won't even have a proper christmas this year due to flooding, fortunately it looks like turning cooler and drier next week.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

AWFUL start to winter, no sun, constant rain and strong winds, some people won't even have a proper christmas this year due to flooding, fortunately it looks like turning cooler and drier next week.

Sadly, that drier spell has disappeared on the 12z; indeed, your part of the world appears to in line for much more heavy rain after a short-lived drier period next wekend.  Sadly, there's no end in sight to W-SW zonality with strong winds and heavy rain.  I fear that, if this verifies, parts of the north-west may be uninhabitable for Christmas.

[Hocus Pocus]

How anyone can enjoy this sort of setup leaves the mind boggled, incessant rains, wind and grey skies. Can there really be a worst climate than the Northern half of the UK, thoroughly depressing with rising floodwaters and no rest-bite until next weekend at least.

Edited December 5, 2015 by Hocus Pocus

[March Blizzard]

4 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 Not been bad Dec so far here, 5 dry days out of 5, (although rain Thurs evening), would expect Dec to be wet all the time

 

suppose the south will have to pay for this, will turn wet mid month, floods for Xmas (South), wouldn't bet against it

That surprises me, I'm not a million miles away from you and have seen quite a bit of rain, Thursday night, in particular, was horrendous - heavy rain and very strong winds. A bit of rain this morning, but the wind being more of a feature today. 

It seems the boundary between wet and dry has been pretty consistent and stark since the start of November, with NW England and Wales up half way up Western Scotland bearing the brunt, with locations above and below that line being relatively dry, yet still very dull.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Welsh hills can be good! protected me from the yuk mostly this Dec

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS 12Z looks a very accurate run, westerlies all the way, slight respite around 13th, but otherwise normal Dec weather for nowadays, hopefully dosen't look that wet though in the south