Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

been monitoring GFS for weekend and 12Z is 'orrid 

And I hope it's wrong!

18Z more like it!

[summer blizzard]

Given the current model output i wonder if we hit 20 days without rainfall for the first time since 2013. 

With high pressure holding firm, we look good for perhaps 2 weeks from Wednesday's rain. 

[Bristawl Si]

Confused.com

One poster says cold; the other says average.

Currently in Fuerteventura - today was sunny and reached 22c.

[MP-R]

Signs of something a bit more interesting next week. Snow or not, some convective weather would be brilliant - last March brought some fantastic convective days with dramatic cbs and hailstorms.

[weather09]

Aye, nice as the current weather is, would like to see some deep troughing/cold air moving in aloft over UK on future model outputs, as solar input is now sufficient to generate good inland convection.  Not really seeing that for next week on current outputs, though- apart from on back end of ECM.  

[Costa Del Fal]

As usual the symbol forecasts were far too generous with the cloud symbols for here this morning. Yesterday cloud was forecast till about 12pm today yet it has been sunny from pretty much the word go. Expect similar outcomes later this week although still a bit cloudier on the whole.

[Summer Sun]

Glorious today mist lifted early doors and the sun hasn't gone in since

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

So we have endured prolonged low pressure this winter, but as is so often the case with our modern day climate, the flip side is, we now have a prolonged spell of spring high pressure, to match recent spring events (Apr 2007, Apr 2011, March 2012, April 2015..)

[knocker]

Hey Ho

hres Modis 1330

Credit "NERC Satellite Receiving Station, Dundee University, Scotland"  http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/

[TROY]

Its been another cracking day. Blue skies and sunshine. Not bad for March.

[davehsug]

Apart from that horrible wind! And what do we see being cheered on for Easter & the first break for most of us since Christmas, Cold, wind & possible snow showers, which will make everywhere wet & nasty & won't amount to anything, except misery. Grrr!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Apart from that horrible wind! And what do we see being cheered on for Easter & the first break for most of us since Christmas, Cold, wind & possible snow showers, which will make everywhere wet & nasty & won't amount to anything, except misery. Grrr!

yes horrid, hate ECM FI, my facebook something came up from a rag I assume, Easter heatwave on the way 19°C temps? I mean wtf?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looking nice for the Easter break on the Gfs 00Z run with Spring like conditions unlike the Ecm which shows a cold northerly blast!

 

Which model will be nearer the mark ?

Edited March 15, 2016 by prolongedSnowLover

[I remember Atlantic 252]

21 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looking nice for the Easter break on the Gfs 00Z run with Spring like conditions unlike the Ecm which shows a cold northerly blast!

 

Which model will be nearer the mark ?

obviously hope GFS top one is right!!!! do not fancy 6° and rain, but do fancy 13° and dry maybe sunny

Edited March 15, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[MP-R]

Interesting how if the more unsettled final third does transpire, that this March will turn out very similar in sequential synoptics to last year, although this March will probably turn out a bit wetter. Another case of March behaving like a lion at either end, with the lamb during the middle.

[weather09]

Not sure I'd sum up the last frame of the ECM as 'rain'.  Those darker blues (500mb height contours) indicating low geopotential heights/colder air aloft over or to the east of the UK suggests a showery regime post frontal system(s), as opposed to longer spells of rain being the dominant feature.  Obviously couldn't say with any degree of certainty at such a range (low likelihood of verifying anyway), but it's often interpreted that low pressure generally means dull, cloudy, wet weather, however clearly that's not always true.  Personally,  I'd like to see medium-range outputs continue  with the theme of dropping a deep trough over UK with shallow low pressure at the surface, allowing for increased instability inland.  

Edited March 15, 2016 by weather09

[Essex snowman]

Looks like spring won't arrive be COLDISH till end of April then a short warm summer followed by a cold autum and then to top this year a big freezing winter perfect for all on net weather me thinks 

[Allseasons-Si]

13 minutes ago, Essex snowman said:

Looks like spring won't arrive be COLDISH till end of April then a short warm summer followed by a cold autum and then to top this year a big freezing winter perfect for all on net weather me thinks 

I will look back on this post come the end of march 2017

[Frosty.]

10 hours ago, Essex snowman said:

Looks like spring won't arrive be COLDISH till end of April then a short warm summer followed by a cold autum and then to top this year a big freezing winter perfect for all on net weather me thinks 

As pop Larkin would say...PERFICK

[Gael_Force]

12 hours ago, Essex snowman said:

Looks like spring won't arrive be COLDISH till end of April then a short warm summer followed by a cold autum and then to top this year a big freezing winter perfect for all on net weather me thinks 

Have you consulted the MJO about that?  from the model thread, the only true weather oracle these days.

[northwestsnow]

On the one hand im disappointed with the ecm this winter as it has constantly over amplified things in the medium to long term, on the other, at least it has given (false) hope and some interest for coldies in what has been one of the most horrendous winters i can remember for cold  lovers.

I really hope we get a decent summer this time round as im not going abroad this year - last summer was poor round these parts.

 

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

On the one hand im disappointed with the ecm this winter as it has constantly over amplified things in the medium to long term, on the other, at least it has given (false) hope and some interest for coldies in what has been one of the most horrendous winters i can remember for cold  lovers.

I really hope we get a decent summer this time round as im not going abroad this year - last summer was poor round these parts.

 

Agreed, we coldies have taken a terrible battering, I started winter so optimistic but December was a complete stinker which left me feeling punch drunk by the new year and winter never recovered, to hell with El Nino..I look forward with hope for La Nina next winter..

[northwestsnow]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, we coldies have taken a terrible battering, I started winter so optimistic but December was a complete stinker which left me feeling punch drunk by the new year and winter never recovered, to hell with El Nino..I look forward with hope for La Nina next winter..

I think on reflection it was the sheer strength of the el nino which did for us frosty mate.

We are due a boiling hot summer and a frigidly cold winter i reckon.

If it were a choice of 1 of the 2, erm, i think i would sacrifice the summer for some biting east winds in December with 2 foot snow drifts!!!:D

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I think on reflection it was the sheer strength of the el nino which did for us frosty mate.

We are due a boiling hot summer and a frigidly cold winter i reckon.

If it were a choice of 1 of the 2, erm, i think i would sacrifice the summer for some biting east winds in December with 2 foot snow drifts!!!:D

Agreed mate, I'm dreaming of a very cold snowy winter 2016 / 17.

[cheeky_monkey]

3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, we coldies have taken a terrible battering, I started winter so optimistic but December was a complete stinker which left me feeling punch drunk by the new year and winter never recovered, to hell with El Nino..I look forward with hope for La Nina next winter..

Really ?...this winter was odds on going to be mild and wet..i think somewhere back in June 2015 I had already written off this winter for cold