Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[mushymanrob]

oh lord.... mayhem will ensue...

the charts are taking a significant step towards something very much colder. the favoured (by me at least) noaa 500mb chart for days 8-14 support a lot of significant northern blocking and with pressure predicted to drop over southern europe. all the atlantic energy has only one exit - over our southern regions or south of the uk, which (after saying yesterday there will be no easterly) does look likely now to increase the chances of a more easterly flow.

of course all this might fail to deliver anything overly cold, but at least the new year should herald 'average' weather and could evolve into something much wintrier.

[PLANET THANET]

preparing for wrist slashing over on the mod thread, all seems to be going belly up judging by the posts on the recent output, will we ever learn!!!!!

Edited December 28, 2015 by PLANET THANET

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

oh lord.... mayhem will ensue...

the charts are taking a significant step towards something very much colder. the favoured (by me at least) noaa 500mb chart for days 8-14 support a lot of significant northern blocking and with pressure predicted to drop over southern europe. all the atlantic energy has only one exit - over our southern regions or south of the uk, which (after saying yesterday there will be no easterly) does look likely now to increase the chances of a more easterly flow.

of course all this might fail to deliver anything overly cold, but at least the new year should herald 'average' weather and could evolve into something much wintrier.

 

disagree with that, at least for southern UK, just looks average to mild to me, chart I just posted showed 13C in a few spots, I remember seeing a post by fergie few days back, Jan will be mild, with hints of a pressure rise from the south, like shown on GFS 00Z, but staying mild, but I wanna see that becoming a trend from around 12th

[snowblizzard]

Great programme on More 4 last night about the severe snow event Feb 2009 although I think I had seen it before!

A result of significant SSW and massive -AO

Frontal rain approaching from SW, battleground UK, in fact initially right over London!

Heavy rain hitting a wall of freezing cold air resulting in blizzard conditions and permafrost!

Cold air actually won the battle on this ocassion and the snow/freezing conditions spread to most parts of UK bringing transport systems to a grinding halt!

However, Met Office stating that UK weather will definitely be affected by Global Warming and these severe snow events will become much more rare.

They used to be about 1 in every 5 years, but now will probably only be seen 1 in every 20 years!

2010 was the last time, so we might have to wait until 2030 for another decent one! 

 

Edited December 28, 2015 by snowblizzard

[snefnug]

Well Wales got blasted snow wise in March 2013, so it's going to vary countrywide surely?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

 

Don't usually post FI but the 1025 high miles in the Atlantic hopefully still moving our way around 12th, it did on 00Z

[snowblizzard]

10 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Well Wales got blasted snow wise in March 2013, so it's going to vary countrywide surely?

So did SE England but it only lasted 24 hours, I think they are referring to longer more sustained events.

Feb 2009 lasted more than 7 days!

Edited December 28, 2015 by snowblizzard

[mushymanrob]

14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

disagree with that, at least for southern UK, just looks average to mild to me, chart I just posted showed 13C in a few spots, I remember seeing a post by fergie few days back, Jan will be mild, with hints of a pressure rise from the south, like shown on GFS 00Z, but staying mild, but I wanna see that becoming a trend from around 12th

well i dont hang my thoughts on any one or two op runs, this is why these anomaly charts are so good, they are immune from the vagaries of the ops as they are the mean.

im not sure what you disagree with btw, i said the chances of something cold have increased citing the changes on the noaa charts.

of course these charts might be proven wrong,  but theres no much mild to be had off these IF they become reality (which is my point) :)

no idea why this last lines are underlined...

Edited December 28, 2015 by mushymanrob

[snowblizzard]

20 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

oh lord.... mayhem will ensue...

the charts are taking a significant step towards something very much colder. the favoured (by me at least) noaa 500mb chart for days 8-14 support a lot of significant northern blocking and with pressure predicted to drop over southern europe. all the atlantic energy has only one exit - over our southern regions or south of the uk, which (after saying yesterday there will be no easterly) does look likely now to increase the chances of a more easterly flow.

of course all this might fail to deliver anything overly cold, but at least the new year should herald 'average' weather and could evolve into something much wintrier.

Wow! When Mushy is seeing the cold potential we must be in with a slight chance!

[mushymanrob]

Just now, snowblizzard said:

Wow! When Mushy is seeing the cold potential we must be in with a slight chance!

i try to be realistic, if theres cold potential, ill not ignore it!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, snowblizzard said:

Wow! When Mushy is seeing the cold potential we must be in with a slight chance!

If I see cold potential though different altogether, get sledges out and prepare to be cut off

but this is not one of those occasions

[I remember Atlantic 252]

bartlett? deep FI but still hints of higher pressure

[northwestsnow]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

bartlett? deep FI but still hints of higher pressure

Erm, no.Nothing like a Bartlett.

[Hocus Pocus]

12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

well i dont hang my thoughts on any one or two op runs, this is why these anomaly charts are so good, they are immune from the vagaries of the ops as they are the mean.

im not sure what you disagree with btw, i said the chances of something cold have increased citing the changes on the noaa charts.

of course these charts might be proven wrong,  but theres no much mild to be had off these IF they become reality (which is my point) :)

no idea why this last lines are underlined...

Tend to agree with you mushy, the problem lies when people hang onto every run without looking at the bigger picture. For sure the UK may well miss out this time but the overall picture of a southerly tracking jet into Europe remains the same.  

For any newcomers to the site it's best to read posts from seasoned campaigners both in the so called mild and cold camp and those who just post what the models actually show.

[knocker]

"The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated"

European High Pressure

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

"The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated"

European High Pressure

Yup,lets pluck a chart from 372 hours, excellent.

[mushymanrob]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup,lets pluck a chart from 372 hours, excellent.

it was a joke....

 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

it was a joke....

 

Sorry my sides are splitting.

Seriously?

[mushymanrob]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Sorry my sides are splitting.

Seriously?

yep... knocker is well known for his dry sense of humour, hence that post you quoted was clearly a joke, the joke being it was @ 372.  it was no a serious post.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

yep... knocker is well known for his dry sense of humour, hence that post you quoted was clearly a joke, the joke being it was @ 372.  it was no a serious post.

We'll agree to disagree then.

[Polar Maritime]

It is the Moan/ramp/banter thread, What more would you expect. Especially from Knocker 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

It is the Moan/ramp/banter thread, What more would you expect. Especially from Knocker 

No worries PM.

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Sorry my sides are splitting.

Seriously?

Just to confirm it was a joke. Or could it be a trend with the jet shifting north again?

 

 

[snowblizzard]

Would the apparent slow but sure shift of very cold air from mid West USA over towards the Eastern side have any bearing on the UK pattern/Jet Stream?

Edited December 28, 2015 by snowblizzard

[cheese]

16 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

it was a joke....

 

Jokes need to be funny, don't they?