Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, cheese said:

Jokes need to be funny, don't they? 

Oh, I don't know - Jim Davidson and the Chuckle Brothers do okay?

[TROY]

Mild and Sunny. Feels like spring in the garden. Yippeeeee

Hopefully get some settled weather so... Yorkshire can dry out a bit. My thoughts are...with them.

[four seasons in one day]

Deep lows and some very cold air never far away could mean blizzards in places?  My bet higher ground will get some serious snow within the next couple of weeks. Mini ramp over from a casual observer who is not an expert and probably never will be  

Edited December 28, 2015 by four seasons in one day

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

46 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh, I don't know - Jim Davidson and the Chuckle Brothers do okay?

Didn't the East London racist sling his hook to Dubai a few years back?

Anyway, while for obvious reasons I certainly don't want the Euro high to re-establish itself if it's going to sit in the same place as it has for the past couple of months, if it became a true Bartlett, it might deflect lows so far north and west that they miss the UK entirely, which would surely be good news for all but ardent coldies.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

Jokes need to be funny, don't they? 

no!

they need to be intended to be funny, because not everyone has the same sense of humour and no matter how funny some find a joke, others wont find it funny - so it isnt a joke?

i like knockers little quips, it adds humour and balance to the forum that often gets fraught and over serious , especially when charts 'go wrong'.

[lawrenk]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh, I don't know - Jim Davidson and the Chuckle Brothers do okay?

Sorry Ed, you've crossed the line in having a pop at Barry and Paul. 

I hope you'll retract that.

 

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, lawrenk said:

Sorry Ed, you've crossed the line in having a pop at Barry and Paul. 

I hope you'll retract that.

 

I'll take that back; they're even funnier than Ant and Dec!

[mountain shadow]

Having just read the Met Office update there isn't even the slightest hint of an Easterly,  if there were they would be dropping in subtle potential hints by now

If however an Easterly does occur in the next 8 to 20 days it will be pretty embarrassing for them. 

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Having just read the Met Office update there isn't even the slightest hint of an Easterly,  if there were they would be dropping in subtle potential hints by now

If however an Easterly does occur in the next 8 to 20 days it will be pretty embarrassing for them. 

 

 

There will be no easterly, that's pure fantasy, GFS 06Z seems a very realistic run, very wet, mild at times, and ECM 12Z will trend towards GFS, make the most of the short dry windows, we'll get over next 3 weeks

[Stuart]

let see what 12z run bring  if ECM downgrade it then worry

[knocker]

Not in the next three days. Hope there is no too much rain on this lot for the poor sods up north.

[Hocus Pocus]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

There will be no easterly, that's pure fantasy, GFS 06Z seems a very realistic run, very wet, mild at times, and ECM 12Z will trend towards GFS, make the most of the short dry windows, we'll get over next 3 weeks

Have you considered updating your CV and firing it off to the MetO.

[Liam J]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

There will be no easterly, that's pure fantasy, GFS 06Z seems a very realistic run, very wet, mild at times, and ECM 12Z will trend towards GFS, make the most of the short dry windows, we'll get over next 3 weeks

What makes you so sure of this? ECM is one of the best short - medium range tools (but not infallible)... Be very surprised if it makes a huge backtrack towards the GFS! Those saying the Met Office aren't interested, that isn't true as Ian F has pointed out that the easterly scenario has not been totally discounted... But as yet we don't really have concrete enough evidence so I doubt the Met will change public forecasts until we have stronger cross model/ensemble agreement. 

[phil nw.]

GFS 6z run is actually not looking at all mild after the next 3days or so..

We do lose the mild sub-tropical feed but unfortunately though quite wet for some as the frontal systems slow around the UK against the block as shown in those fax's from Knocker.

[Nick L]

22 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

There will be no easterly, that's pure fantasy, GFS 06Z seems a very realistic run, very wet, mild at times, and ECM 12Z will trend towards GFS, make the most of the short dry windows, we'll get over next 3 weeks

Can I get the lottery numbers too please?

[booferking]

Metoffice hinting at a change in the east maybe in there last long rang forecast.

 

The first week of New Year is likely to be unsettled, with spells of wet weather, and some snow possible over the higher ground of the north. This may be accompanied by strong or gale force winds, with a low risk of severe gales. The wet conditions are likely to be mixed with some brighter, showery interludes and also some brief drier spells. As we move into the second week of January there are signs of an east to west split developing, with mild, wet weather in the west and colder drier weather in the east. Temperatures are generally expected to remain around or just above normal for most, but slightly below at times with some night frosts possible in the settled, drier spells

 

[carinthian]

9 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

What makes you so sure of this? ECM is one of the best short - medium range tools (but not infallible)... Be very surprised if it makes a huge backtrack towards the GFS! Those saying the Met Office aren't interested, that isn't true as Ian F has pointed out that the easterly scenario has not been totally discounted... But as yet we don't really have concrete enough evidence so I doubt the Met will change public forecasts until we have stronger cross model/ensemble agreement. 

Hi Sub Zero, the latest Met Office update now hints at a block to the east by the start of the second week in January with colder conditions over the East of Britain but with the rain and mildness still in place over the west. This looks like to me a stalling of the Atlantic fronts.. Later fax charts may soon show to start this process... so I think the Met Office are not discounting the colder scenario but as you say more runs needed, but this is encouraging for  change, hopefully for to a too short of a period.

 C

Edited December 28, 2015 by carinthian

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Boof, Average temps is good news! Looks very similar to yesterdays update..

Edited December 28, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Polar Maritime said:

Yes Boof, Average temps is good news!

Why? I preferred the 14°C we have had for 6 weeks, Average temps may bring snow to you, but just cooler rain to most in the South, and make the mopping up a bit more miserable with temps only half of Dec's temps

[phil nw.]

1 minute ago, carinthian said:

Hi Sub Zero, the latest Met Office update now hints at a block to the east by the start of the second week in January with colder conditions over the East of Britain but with the rain and mildness still in place over the west. This looks like to me a stalling of the Atlantic fronts.. Later fax charts may soon show to start this process... so I think the Met Office our not discounting the colder scenario but as you say more runs needed, but this is encouraging for  change, hopefully for to a too short of a period.

 C

Suggesting that the block will be around for a while C.

That is quite an encouraging change obviously they aren't going to go any further than hint at some possible effects from it at that range.After all we need to see how the next few days pan out wrt how far south and east we can get the succeeding lows.

[Polar Maritime]

Because it seasonal IRA.

[Liam J]

9 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Hi Sub Zero, the latest Met Office update now hints at a block to the east by the start of the second week in January with colder conditions over the East of Britain but with the rain and mildness still in place over the west. This looks like to me a stalling of the Atlantic fronts.. Later fax charts may soon show to start this process... so I think the Met Office are not discounting the colder scenario but as you say more runs needed, but this is encouraging for  change, hopefully for to a too short of a period.

 C

Rain from west meets cold air from the east, interesting... Good recipe for some significant snowfall 

Hope the colder weather materialises and that the cold air pushes further west so the flooded areas can at last dry out!! 

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:What makes you so sure of this? ECM is one of the best short - medium range tools (but not infallible)... Be very surprised if it makes a huge backtrack towards the GFS! Those saying the Met Office aren't interested, that isn't true as Ian F has pointed out that the easterly scenario has not been totally discounted... But as yet we don't really have concrete enough evidence so I doubt the Met will change public forecasts until we have stronger cross model/ensemble agreement. 

Precisely. It makes my blood boil it's the same folk  every single time. The GFS is commonly outperformed by ECM on occasion it gets it right - in model performance statistics, GFS is virtually always trailing behind ECM. These very mild conditions can go to hell as far as I'm concerned, I've saved enough on heating bills not that is an issue anyway. I want Winter and I want it to hit hard the MO have caught a whiff, you'd think it is doomsday for coldies.

[Froze were the Days]

Worry I have is low pressure stalling over the UK against the block to the east...potential further flooding which has become a nightmare winter again up north. Please god if you exist bring us some cold dry (dryish) air for once. Can't remember the last time I experienced a frost - must be nearly 40 days ago.

Edited December 28, 2015 by Froze were the Days

[fergieweather]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Having just read the Met Office update there isn't even the slightest hint of an Easterly,  if there were they would be dropping in subtle potential hints by now

If however an Easterly does occur in the next 8 to 20 days it will be pretty embarrassing for them. 

 

 

??? 

Ops Centre are very much commenting/contemplating on the varied possible outcomes and have been so for a while. To cite (abstracted) remarks in latest assessment, focused here into early Jan: 

"With the depression track being further south than of late there remains the ever-present possibility of high pressure re-exerting itself to the E/NE allowing an influx of much colder air into N'rn & E'rn areas in particular... This is currently rated as a 20% probability...The risk appears to peak around Tues 5 Jan"

Bear in mind the public forecast can't go into detail on every cluster possibility or model solution: majority of those reading it aren't either interested in that sort of in-depth stuff, nor would they necessarily understand it. It would cause confusion, in all likelihood.