Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[booferking]

So we have went from 10% to 20% the trend is looking better for cold hopefully when Ian F updates us again we might reach 40%,  love Ian,s updates as he knows more than most of us..

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, fergieweather said:

??? 

Ops Centre are very much commenting/contemplating on the varied possible outcomes and have been so for a while. To cite (abstracted) remarks in latest assessment, focused here into early Jan: 

"With the depression track being further south than of late there remains the ever-present possibility of high pressure re-exerting itself to the E/NE allowing an influx of much colder air into N'rn & E'rn areas in particular... This is currently rated as a 20% probability...The risk appears to peak around Tues 5 Jan"

Bear in mind the public forecast can't go into detail on every cluster possibility or model solution: majority of those reading it aren't either interested in that sort of in-depth stuff, nor would they necessarily understand it. It would cause confusion, in all likelihood.

I see no reason why the longer range forecast can't say something like "average temperatures are more likely over the period of this forecast however there is a 20 percent probability that colder conditions could occur "

The current forecast makes no reference to potential Easterly colder incursions. 

[fergieweather]

Just to illustrate the point: we first saw minority clustering for +ve MSLP across Scandinavia into early Jan way back at far end of EC-EPS on 20 Dec (see attached example). But you simply can't go batting-on about such an incipient and then weak/unfavoured signal in public forecasts. That's not to be translated as ignoring it in internal discussion...! 

[Liam J]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

 

The current forecast makes no reference to potential Easterly colder incursions. 

They do on the latest update into January.

Quote

 As we move into the second week of January there are signs of an east to west split developing, with mild, wet weather in the west and colder drier weather in the east. Temperatures are generally expected to remain around or just above normal for most, but slightly below at times with some night frosts possible

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I see no reason why the longer range forecast can't say something like "average temperatures are more likely over the period of this forecast however there is a 20 percent probability that colder conditions could occur "

The current forecast makes no reference to potential Easterly colder incursions. 

I think we're better-off leaving that kind of speculation to the likes of James Madden?

[four seasons in one day]

Youtube footage of York flooded out January 1982.

Meanwhile in Wales, 1982, same month around the 8th. Whopping great snowstorm and this was followed by some record low temperatures and snow in parts of England. That was some big freeze.

http://www.nineoaks-fisheries.co.uk/news/history-1982.html

More here, also worthy to note some interesting synoptics elsewhere in Europe..

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74405-blizzard-of-january-1982/

Edited December 28, 2015 by four seasons in one day

[Weather-history]

28th December:

 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jXDZXcy8nSs

 

 

 

[cyclonic happiness]

I've never seen so much snowfall as far south into Mexico as today's update.

 

I'm starting to think that the nearer you are to the tropics, the more likely you are to see snow!  

[cyclonic happiness]

And the whole of New Mexico too!!   WTF nature, sort yourself out!!!

[The PIT]

5 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Precisely. It makes my blood boil it's the same folk  every single time. The GFS is commonly outperformed by ECM on occasion it gets it right - in model performance statistics, GFS is virtually always trailing behind ECM. These very mild conditions can go to hell as far as I'm concerned, I've saved enough on heating bills not that is an issue anyway. I want Winter and I want it to hit hard the MO have caught a whiff, you'd think it is doomsday for coldies.

out of interest have you actually looked at the performance of the big three over five days

The three of them are so close these days you cannot give any model cannon fodder status.

[The PIT]

Anyway too much hope casting on the model thread. I'm going with the general model drift which is back to average or close too. Which means I may see some white stuff though due to height.

[Daniel*]

33 minutes ago, The PIT said:

out of interest have you actually looked at the performance of the big three over five days

The three of them are so close these days you cannot give any model cannon fodder status.

Here's some meat so to speak

The verificationStatistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 95.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.5 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.2 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.0 pts to UKMO at 87.0 pts then GFS at 85.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 62.8 pts over GFS's 57.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 45.7 pts to 41.4 pts.

28/12/15

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

[The PIT]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Here's some meat so to speak

 

28/12/15

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

I tend to look at this one difference is very small anything over 0.9 is excellent.

Edited December 28, 2015 by The PIT

[The PIT]

One thing accuracy wise where are they comparing global nh or just over the states.

[knocker]

Stewfox said (re knocker)

Struggling with the blue pen when we have has so much red

Actually i had popped out to the woodshed for a tonsorial                settled for an undercut in the end whilst sniffing the coffee.

 

Edited December 28, 2015 by knocker

[The PIT]

Just bought a lot of anti depressants for the rampers which maybe needed next week.

[stewfox]

Just now, knocker said:

Stewfox said (re knocker)

Struggling with the blue pen when we have has so much red

Actually i had popped out to the woodshed for a tonsorial                settled for an undercut whilstsniffing the coffee.

 

Someone said the pesky shortwave could ruin our chances in FI , how would that work ?

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84555-model-output-discussion-1st-december-onwards/?page=145

Supporting chart attached

 

 

[Norrona2015]

BBC weather mentioning " a chance of colder weather" for next week with the most likely outcome being a continuation of the weather type we have at present.

[DAVID SNOW]

2 minutes ago, Norrona2015 said:

BBC weather mentioning " a chance of colder weather" for next week with the most likely outcome being a continuation of the weather type we have at present.

All bases  covered there then!

[Mark Neal.]

The only 2 ways we go from here tbh!

[DAVID SNOW]

2 minutes ago, Mark N said:

The only 2 ways we go from here tbh!

Yep, its dark now, but in the morning it will get lighter.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

13 minutes ago, Norrona2015 said:

BBC weather mentioning " a chance of colder weather" for next week with the most likely outcome being a continuation of the weather type we have at present.

colder zonality it will be, very wet, so a bit inbetween the 2, not what we have at present which is warm, serious flooding due still though for maybe more areas than currently

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, Norrona2015 said:

BBC weather mentioning " a chance of colder weather" for next week with the most likely outcome being a continuation of the weather type we have at present.

Glad to see they're taking my advice onboard. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

should I say dread the 00Z's, incase they have trended towards the GFS, 18Z is even more Atlantic dominated than the 12Z

[Mullet]

I think from a cold perspective it's better to have the euro's developing together. Since I've been reading this site, none of the established members fully trusted the output if the ukmo wasn't on board in some way.

Hopefully for those who enjoy the cold, we won't end up with one of those monster highs that stick around forever without advancing West enough, leaving the UK getting drenched on the wrong side. Can't remember what year it was, but I remember once that happened for bloody weeks and we just couldn't get a favourable set up to tap into it. Don't have the knowledge to rule that out though!