Atlantic Storms Winter 2015/16

[knocker]

It has to be said there is huge disagreement regarding the above as the ecm treats the evolution completely differently. In a nutshell it has low a low 978mb over Scotland by 00z 31st which if correct would bring some very strong winds across the UK. Obviously as there is such a divergence of opinion we need to wait a couple of days to get it sorted.

[Liam J]

Not looking quite as bad next week on current runs but this would bring some disruption into NYE, long way to go until then though before this is sorted out between the models with much divergence at present... 

Just looked at the gust charts and they are showing 80-90kts into N Wales and up to 100kts at sea off Southern Ireland before the depression makes landfall, maybe it is still looking quite bad! 

Insane pressure gradient!

 

Edited December 24, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Polar Maritime]

Certainly stormy/wild out there here now as a squall line passes, Very heavy rain with winds gusting 48mph and a hail/sleet mix in heavy bursts.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Indeed was not expecting it to be this windy... 

VERY windy as the front pushes through down south in Kent...

[Paul]

Some really intense squall lines in amongst the front today. 

http://www.netweather.tv/radar

[The PIT]

Breezy day nothing really in the way of wind max gust 42mph rain has been the main feature. 8.8mm so far 8.2mm from the front and a heavy shower just now.

Latest runs from the GFS showing the monster lows for the end of year keeping further to the west and only effecting Scotland.  On another side note boxing day looking windy again for Central Northern England North Wales and these may hit 60mph.

[Summer Sun]

Updated rain warnings

Issued at: 1235 on Thu 24 Dec 2015

Valid from: 1500 on Fri 25 Dec 2015

Valid to: 2345 on Sat 26 Dec 2015

Outbreaks of rain will gradually spread north across Wales and northern England through the course of Christmas Day. The rain will be heavy at times, particularly over high ground and will persist through much of Boxing Day. Be aware of the potential for flooding and some disruption to transport. This is an update to the warning issued on Wednesday morning to include latest estimates of rainfall amounts. Over southern Scotland the likelihood of medium impacts remains very low.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Rain, persistent and heavy at times, is expected to spread north across the UK on Christmas Day and Boxing Day. During Boxing Day the frontal system, bringing the heaviest and most prolonged spells of rain, is expected to become slow moving across the warning area. There remains uncertainty over where the heaviest rainfall will occur in the warning area, but around 60 to 80 mm is likely to fall quite widely over high ground, with 120 mm possible over the most exposed sites. Despite continuing uncertainties in frontal positioning and therefore rainfall amounts, evidence suggests rainfall accumulations will be sufficiently high to cause some medium levels of disruption. Given sensitivities with saturated ground over Cumbria, the likelihood of medium impacts is higher here and as a result an amber warning has been issued for parts of Cumbria. See the amber warning for further details. This warning will be reviewed this (Thursday) afternoon and further updates are likely in the coming days.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1451001600®ionName=uk

Amber warning

Issued at: 1229 on Thu 24 Dec 2015

Valid from: 0015 on Sat 26 Dec 2015

Valid to: 2345 on Sat 26 Dec 2015

Rain will spread northwards across Cumbria during the afternoon and evening of Christmas Day. During the early hours of Boxing Day the rain is likely to turn heavy at times and then persist through most of the day. Be prepared for river and surface water flooding to occur with further disruption possible. This is an update to the warning issued on Wednesday afternoon to include latest estimates of rainfall amounts.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Rain, persistent and heavy at times, is expected to affect Cumbria throughout much of Boxing Day. There remains uncertainty over the exact location and intensity of the heaviest rainfall. However, around 60 to 80 mm of rain is likely to accumulate over high ground during Boxing Day, with 120 mm possible over the most exposed sites. If theses rainfall amounts occur over the warning area, given the sensitivities, medium impacts are likely. This warning will be reviewed this (Thursday) afternoon and further updates are likely in the coming days. We recommend keeping up to date with the latest forecasts.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1451088000®ionName=uk

Yellow warning

Issued at: 1235 on Thu 24 Dec 2015

Valid from: 1500 on Fri 25 Dec 2015

Valid to: 2345 on Sat 26 Dec 2015

Outbreaks of rain will gradually spread north across Wales and northern England through the course of Christmas Day. The rain will be heavy at times, particularly over high ground and will persist through much of Boxing Day. Be aware of the potential for flooding and some disruption to transport. This is an update to the warning issued on Wednesday morning to include latest estimates of rainfall amounts. Over southern Scotland the likelihood of medium impacts remains very low.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Rain, persistent and heavy at times, is expected to spread north across the UK on Christmas Day and Boxing Day. During Boxing Day the frontal system, bringing the heaviest and most prolonged spells of rain, is expected to become slow moving across the warning area. There remains uncertainty over where the heaviest rainfall will occur in the warning area, but around 60 to 80 mm is likely to fall quite widely over high ground, with 120 mm possible over the most exposed sites. Despite continuing uncertainties in frontal positioning and therefore rainfall amounts, evidence suggests rainfall accumulations will be sufficiently high to cause some medium levels of disruption. Given sensitivities with saturated ground over Cumbria, the likelihood of medium impacts is higher here and as a result an amber warning has been issued for parts of Cumbria. See the amber warning for further details. This warning will be reviewed this (Thursday) afternoon and further updates are likely in the coming days.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1451088000®ionName=uk

[Spikecollie]

4 hours ago, Paul said:

Some really intense squall lines in amongst the front today. 

http://www.netweather.tv/radar

We had a crazy squall this morning - torrential rain, sleet and hail all mixed together for about ten minutes!

[Liam J]

Well the 12z predicted rainfall totals make for grim viewing!! 

 

[knocker]

The gfs is now swinging the NY depression a little closer to the UK which would bring very strong winds to the west, particularly Ireland, with gusts in excess of 80kts

 

[Liam J]

Yes Knocker, looking quite severe on the 00z. 

Merry Christmas all 

[tinybill]

happy  xmas  subzero     !!1  hope you stay dry up there looking at the  models its looking pretty grim  for  the nw   ex boxing day and  beyond   is looking horrible to say the  least  with no let up in sight  from the constant rain /wind

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

Edited December 25, 2015 by tinybill
bad grammer!!

[knocker]

The ecm illustrates just how critical minute changes in the track can be. The track taken here has the very strong winds just to the west (in excess of 90kts) but even then it would still be very windy in the Hebrides.

And then next up for the Hebrides

 

Edited December 25, 2015 by knocker

[tinybill]

Sky news  saying flooded  area could  6 inches of rain soon

[Liam J]

Still an extremely windy spell on the 6z for north and west UK on the 30th. 

[The PIT]

The 30th windy spell shouldn't effect us wrong direction wind wise so will be lucky to scrape 40mph gust. Very nasty for everyone else especially western and north western areas. Thankfully quiet on news years eve.

A lesser breezy spell tomorrow for us maybe a 50mph plus possible. Main issue now though will the rain once more.

[Love Snow]

3 minutes ago, The PIT said:

The 30th windy spell shouldn't effect us wrong direction wind wise so will be lucky to scrape 40mph gust. Very nasty for everyone else especially western and north western areas. Thankfully quiet on news years eve.

A lesser breezy spell tomorrow for us maybe a 50mph plus possible. Main issue now though will the rain once more.

Merry Christmas keep up the good posts always someone I look out for on here.

[Summer Sun]

Updated yellow warning

Issued at: 1125 on Fri 25 Dec 2015

Valid from: 1500 on Fri 25 Dec 2015

Valid to: 2345 on Sat 26 Dec 2015

Outbreaks of rain will gradually spread north across Wales and northern England through the course of Christmas Day, reaching southern Scotland later. The rain will be heavy at times, particularly over high ground and will persist through much of Boxing Day. Be aware of the potential for flooding and some disruption to transport. This is an update to the warning, first issued on Wednesday morning, to include latest estimates of rainfall amounts and to adjust the boundaries southwards across parts of Greater Manchester and Merseyside, and eastwards into the East Riding of Yorkshire. Over southern Scotland the likelihood of medium impacts remains very low.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Rain, persistent and heavy at times, is expected to spread north across the UK on Christmas Day and Boxing Day. During Boxing Day the frontal system which brings the heaviest and most prolonged rain, is expected to become slow-moving across parts of the warning area. 50 to 80 mm is likely to fall quite widely over high ground, with around 120 mm possible over the most exposed sites. Despite continuing uncertainties in frontal position and therefore rainfall amounts, evidence suggests that rainfall may be sufficient to cause some medium levels of disruption due to flooding. Given sensitivities over Cumbria, the likelihood of medium impacts is higher here and as a result an Amber warning has been issued covering parts of the county.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1451088000

[amanda2012]

Hi what kinds of gusts would the southeast get from the 30th windstorm? Thanks 

[Mapantz]

Early warnings out..

 

[The PIT]

4 hours ago, Love Snow said:

Merry Christmas keep up the good posts always someone I look out for on here.

Thank you merry xmas to you as well and a have a good new year.  Just waiting for the latest model run to see what the winds will do later today and tomorrow.  66mph on xcweather at the normal culprit cape Curig.  A bit higher than forecast but I would think within perimeters.

 

 

[knocker]

Not looking good

 

[heccygabber]

Looking forward to the winds that brings. 

[Liam J]

Just seen the Met Office warning, perhaps gusts in excess of 80mph, must be a strong signal from their models to issue a warning 4/5 days away. They do mention the uncertainty and things could change, if likelihood increases it's only a step down from amber... But the immediate concern will be rainfall amounts over the next 24hrs or so. 

12z GFS wind gusts for Tuesday, significant disruption if those wind speeds come off.

Followed quickly by another significant storm on Wednesday.  

 

 

[heccygabber]

Looks like a proper storm.