Atlantic Storms Winter 2015/16

[Cookie]

Bad gut feeling about Wednesday 

[Summer Sun]

Updated wind warning

Issued at: 1117 on Tue 8 Dec 2015

Valid from: 1200 on Wed 9 Dec 2015

Valid to: 2350 on Wed 9 Dec 2015
 

Southwesterly winds will increase on Wednesday morning across parts of northern England, the Borders and Dumfries and Galloway, with gales developing widely. The gales are expected to last through the afternoon and evening but should ease by the early hours of Thursday. Be aware that some low level disruption looks likely.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A deepening depression is expected to move northeastwards passing to the northwest of Scotland on Wednesday. The associated frontal system will swing quickly eastwards into the area on Wednesday bringing gales with gusts of 50-60 mph widely and perhaps 65 mph over more exposed locations.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449619200®ionName=uk

[Summer Sun]

Updated rain warning

Issued at: 1138 on Tue 8 Dec 2015

Valid from: 0600 on Wed 9 Dec 2015

Valid to: 0300 on Thu 10 Dec 2015
 

Further rainfall is expected to arrive across much of Scotland and northern England during the early hours of Wednesday. The rain will become persistent and heavy at times over high ground before clearing to the southeast overnight Wednesday and into early Thursday. Some very strong winds are also likely in association with this system with gusts of 60 mph possible in places, for which a separate warning has been issued. This could prove a further hazard. Please be aware of the potential for further disruption from flooding and to transport. This warning has been updated to extend it further north across Scotland but to restrict the extent across the Central Belt of Scotland and tone down peak rainfall totals slightly. The end time has also been brought forward.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A frontal system is expected to run into the UK from the west early on Wednesday, bringing further rainfall and strong winds. This will then sink southeastwards across the UK, clearing through Scotland by around midnight Thursday and clearing northern England early on Thursday. There remains some uncertainty around the locations to be most affected by this system but further heavy rainfall looks likely across pars of Scotland and northwest England. 20-40 mm of rain is expected widely across high ground and there is a low likelihood of locally seeing 60-80 mm over the highest ground of these areas. Were this to occur renewed flooding is possible given the saturated ground and volume of water running through the river network. Rainfall totals and further flooding of the level seen over the weekend are not expected.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Warnings_Rain&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449705600®ionName=uk

[Liam J]

Looking wet and very windy tomorrow in places, nothing like the rainfall amounts seen over the weekend but very unwelcome with some renewed flooding possible but not on the scale already seen. 

Wind gusts.

 

Need to keep and eye on developments for the weekend with further heavy rain being modelled.

 

 

Edited December 8, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Liam J]

Really wet start to the day which isn't good at all for the flood situation & clear up operation and heavier rain due later with gales, getting quite gusty now.  

[Summer Sun]

Various warnings are in force for the next 12 to 18 hours or so

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449619200®ionName=uk

[Spikecollie]

Stay safe all of you in the affected areas. I've got an utterly still, blue sky, warm day here in Limousin, France but I feel for you...if this goes on it's looking like 2012 all over again.

[Liam J]

Winds ramping up now with some places recording gusts 60-70mph over W Ireland, NW Scotland and the windy Capel Curig - http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

[Liam J]

77mph gust at Belmullet on latest obvs and some 60-70mph gusts elsewhere - http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ 

More worrying for flood hit areas is the incoming rain. 

[The PIT]

Winds reaching force 6 here although not gusting very high 43 mph. Going to be interesting too see if we break the 50mph again.

[Mokidugway]

Seems a fairly morribund affair ,we don't want anymore severe weather ...

[The PIT]

Ahh heading towards 50 mph looks quite wet on the radar where they don't want it.

[Mokidugway]

Reports coming in that Glenridding village is been flooded again ,beck has burst its banks ..

Edited December 9, 2015 by Mokidugway

[tinybill]

i hope you all stat safe  just looked  at the radar its looking horrible for the places which dont need  it

[The PIT]

Well windier overnight than forecast hitting 52mph in the early hours. Not bad

[Summer Sun]

Early rain warnings issued for Saturday

Issued at: 1051 on Thu 10 Dec 2015

Valid from: 0900 on Sat 12 Dec 2015

Valid to: 2350 on Sat 12 Dec 2015

Rain, heavy at times, looks likely to develop early on Saturday and persist until late in the day. Given saturated ground, be aware of the potential for some localised flooding of land, roads and properties, as well as some travel disruption.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

An area of low pressure, associated with a sharp north-south temperature contrast, is expected to move eastwards somewhere across central Britain on Saturday. This has the potential to produce 20 to 40 mm rainfall quite widely, and locally 60 mm on high ground This development is associated with a high degree of uncertainty, especially regarding the track and timing of the depression, and this alert will be kept under review.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449878400®ionName=uk

 

[Liam J]

Also a rain & snow warning for N/NW England - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449878400

[Mokidugway]

A591 to Keswick from the south not to be open until Easter ,what a joke ,the Japanese would have completed repairs by this weekend ,this country can't deliver ......

[The PIT]

Looks like a brief pause in the stormy windy weather. Looking like the lull in the windy stuff will last nearly a week.

[iand61]

5 hours ago, Mokidugway said:

A591 to Keswick from the south not to be open until Easter ,what a joke ,the Japanese would have completed repairs by this weekend ,this country can't deliver ......

The American army built the Alaska highway in less time than than although obviously the threat was a Japanese invasion rather than a caravan invasion.

 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Seen on FB that this weekend's depression is to be called Storm Eva, this is was linked to the Sun newspapers headline so must be true..... 

[Liam J]

Not sure they'll name Eva this weekend, it's looking rather quiet for the next week but there will be some rain around which is bad news for the flood hit areas, no real wind to speak of. It is quite windy over N Ireland this morning with gusts around 50mph, these spreading to S Scotland and far N of England later this morning with gusts around 40-50mph for a time. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

7 hours ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Not sure they'll name Eva this weekend, it's looking rather quiet for the next week but there will be some rain around which is bad news for the flood hit areas, no real wind to speak of. It is quite windy over N Ireland this morning with gusts around 50mph, these spreading to S Scotland and far N of England later this morning with gusts around 40-50mph for a time. 

Im not so sure 

 

http://www.myweather2.com/streamline/player.aspx?Streamline=2

[Liam J]

28 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Im not so sure 

 

http://www.myweather2.com/streamline/player.aspx?Streamline=2

Compared to recently it's looking quiet on the storm front with nothing really of note regrading wind but looking quite wet though at times which isn't good news for those affected by flooding, there'll be the odd breezy/windy day but nothing worth getting excited about, that's assuming nothing changes with current model predictions, but we know it can

Edited December 11, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[NO LONGER POSTING]

47 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Compared to recently it's looking quiet on the storm front with nothing really of note regrading wind but looking quite wet though at times which isn't good news for those affected by flooding, there'll be the odd breezy/windy day but nothing worth getting excited about, that's assuming nothing changes with current model predictions, but we know it can

Here talk about last minute changes, you seen the latest 12z for tomorrow's low, almost laughable from 40mph gusts now into the 60mph gusts 

GFS has a tendency to do this