Atlantic Storms Winter 2015/16

[The PIT]

Quiet a downgrade for xmas day much uncertainty.

[Liam J]

Wind warnings now in force for the far NW of Scotland and the N Isles for tomorrow evening into Thursday, rain warnings further south -  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1450828800

Edited December 22, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Mokidugway]

Flooding in the lakes again :(..

[Mapantz]

It just pushed out a rogue gust of 55mph here, I was out having a burn and thought the fence panels were going to flatten. Mighty impressive!

[Liam J]

Something to keep an eye on around the 29th/30th, it might get downgraded nearer the time (which may be a good thing) then again it may not, always a chance... ECM wind gust charts for the 29th are currently showing gusts up to 70kts inland for some areas in the north and west. 

[AdamStorm7891]

Well folks certainly very windy here in Essex today, gusts into the 40's mph I'd say. Looking further ahead, Christmas Eve's low seems to be more across the North-West so hopefully we'll avoid the worst, looks like we could have a Christmas Eve Storm Eva though lol.

As for the 29th/30th that does look quite concerning I must say but the Northerners are more used to big storms, I certainly wouldn't want a storm of that intensity tracking over our neck of the woods, otherwise it'll certainly be a Burn's Day Storm type scenario. Still plenty of time in the GFS model runs for the track and intensity to change significantly between now and then!

[Weather26]

It looks like we are getting storm Eva Late Tomorrow/Early Christmas Eve after all

BBC Weather ‏@bbcweather  3m3 minutes ago

Met Eireann have named this low for Wednesday evening #Eva Impacts on the UK are not expected to be large. Alex D

Edited December 22, 2015 by Weather26

[knocker]

Some cyclogenisis we definitely don't want to see verifying.

Charts weather bell

 

 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

This morning's run has corrected the track of the deep low further to the NE and is bringing the other low which has been in phase with it into N. Ireland. This new scenario would still bring destructive winds into the north and west of the UK, not forgetting the rainfall.

Chart weatherbell

 

Edited December 23, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

Still needs a beady kept.

 

[four seasons in one day]

Hurricane force gusts? 

[knocker]

4 hours ago, four seasons in one day said:

Hurricane force gusts? 

With that analysis yes.

[Liam J]

Met Office just issued an amber alert for rain on Saturday for Cumbria, please not again!!! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1450828800

 

Edited December 23, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[knocker]

This was always going to be a worry.

[Weather26]

8 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Met Office just issued an amber alert for rain on Saturday for Cumbria, please not again!!! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1450828800

 

Oh dear god no-This is the last thing they need at this current time.

[Liam J]

I've been quite lucky where I live in Cumbria but many others are not so fortunate, and I know quite a few folk personally who have been affected by recent events and they are going through hell right now. The warning mentions a risk of 150mm over high ground which will obviously feed down into already swollen rivers, my concern is as we get nearer to the event that expected totals may be increased like what happened a few weeks ago.... Or they may even get reduced, we can only hope... 

[Liam J]

The idea of some extreme weather next week still hasn't been dropped, it is a week away but one to keep an eye on as the signal is quite persistent. My brother and his wife are due to travel up here from Leeds mid week and no doubt many others will be on the move as well. 

 

 

Edited December 23, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Weather26]

5 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

The idea of some extreme weather next week still hasn't been dropped, it is a week away but one to keep an eye on as the signal is quite persistent. My brother and his wife are due to travel up here from Leeds mid week and no doubt many others will be on the move as well. 

 

 

From this the only change i can see is that we appear towards late on 29th/30th for when the trouble begins-defintely one to keep our ears open on-let's hope it gets downgraded.

[heccygabber]

Yup I'm sure the southerners (Manchester - south) wouldn't be able to handle that! 

[Liam J]

And just in case the first one doesn't cause enough disruption you can have another one NYD! 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Yeah the 12z been pre drinking some of then storms are ridiculous 

[Weather26]

13 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

And just in case the first one doesn't cause enough disruption you can have another one NYD! 

 

And a re run of New Years Day 2 years ago which was an absolute wash out (if it hasn't been downgraded by this time.)

 

 

Edited December 23, 2015 by Weather26

[Liam J]

The UKMO's take on things shows the storm missing the UK, and it's not very often you see this model blow up a depression like that...Quite a strong signal for a significant low, where it goes and if it continues to be modelled, we'll just have to wait and see... 

50mb pressure drop in 24hrs!

 

Edited December 23, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Fiona Robertson]

4 hours ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

ECM showing gusts around 90mph for Western Ireland on Tuesday, 6hrs later they hit Western Scotland. Long time until next week so expect downgrades/upgrades or a complete removal of the risk, something to keep an eye over the next few days....Should know more by the end of the weekend! 

 

That's looking pretty scary.

[knocker]

The good news this morning is the NYE storm is forecast, not unexpectedly, to turn north over over Iceland. It will still wet weather and strong winds into the UK. The next depression is still on track to bring destructive winds to the Hebrides but hopefully that will also take a left turn/

Charts weatherbell

This may also be of interest

A new North Atlantic Low Pressure record.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&ved=0ahUKEwii4OCF4vPJAhVI1hQKHZzgCBoQFgg6MAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fshpud.com%2Fatlantic-storm-1986.pdf&usg=AFQjCNGCNWdLcnc5jxk51LM8cmxgyYOn9A&sig2=vA-CpxPqR_YyoxV6HzFFrg&cad=rja