Atlantic Storms Winter 2015/16

[Spikecollie]

From the Mountain Weather Information Service:

"An unsettled outlook right through to Christmas, with frequent widespread upland gales, at times storm force winds. Precipitation will also be frequent, particularly on western mountains into this weekend (19th-20th) and beyond, maintaining very wet conditions underfoot, plus streams and rivers often in spate. Temperatures will be very mild, exceptionally so later this week, then gradually falling, and from the weekend, cycles of freeze and thaw on the higher mountains, particularly Scotland."

The BBC forecast mentioned this too - highlighting the need to keep an eye on things, and the MO mention the ongoing risk of flooding.

I hope we're not heading for a repeat of the week before Christmas 2013...

[Liam J]

Some interest showing for next Monday with wet and very windy weather showing on the GFS, but at 5 days away detail will change.

Also looking quite wet into Christmas week with a risk of flooding.

 

 

 

[Liam J]

Wouldn't be a very merry Christmas for some if the GFS is correct... 

 

Very windy spell is still on the 12z but been moved back slightly to Tuesday morning.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 16, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[tinybill]

3 hours ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Wouldn't be a very merry Christmas for some if the GFS is correct... 

 

Very windy spell is still on the 12z but been moved back slightly to Tuesday morning.

 

 

 

 

as you say looking at the gfs  from dec  22-30   its looking pretty  grim for the north of the  uk   something they don't need ex now  and over  xmas

[The PIT]

Tuesdays windy spell downgraded.  Windy in the west Saturday but otherwise fairly uneventful bat the temperatures.

[cowdog]

8 hours ago, The PIT said:

Tuesdays windy spell downgraded.  Windy in the west Saturday but otherwise fairly uneventful bat the temperatures.

Very much a wait and see this one, as its back on the GFS 6z. Hope it doesn't appear as could scupper ours and many other peoples Christmas's.

Edited December 17, 2015 by cowdog

[Spikecollie]

5 minutes ago, cowdog said:

Very much a wait and see this one, as its back on the GFS 6z. Hope it doesn't appear as could scupper ours and many other peoples Christmas's.

I am also willing anything nasty to go away next week. It makes for horrible uncertainties for us folks who have to travel close to Christmas, not to mention anyone who is worried about flooding or other damage. I've been watching Tuesday and Wednesday for a while and you're right, the charts keep chopping and changing but Meteociel have put the strong winds and heavy rain back on their forecast for the west/northwest of the UK for Christmas week...

[Liam J]

ECM showing winds gusting 50-60kts early Tuesday morning in the north and west, and more rain but hopefully nothing to troublesome... Most of Christmas week is looking quite disturbed. 

Edited December 17, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Mokidugway]

Hoping it's not to bad for my drive to Cambridge and back this weekend ...

[The PIT]

Still looking windy Monday and breezy Tuesday and getting into the reliable time frame now.

[Liam J]

Met Office rain warnings in force for the next 5 days, could be some renewed flooding as totals will add up.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1450396800

NetWx rainfall totals looks quite troublesome throughout next week.

Also looking quite windy at times but nothing too extreme showing at the moment.

[Liam J]

Christmas Eve looking quite stormy on the 00z ECM, 50-60kts gusts over the west through the Irish Sea and 60-70kts close to NW Scotland, but that's nearly a week away so will change. 

[The PIT]

Rainfall won't effect us if it did get your ark out. However bad news for those who look like getting hit again. Monday and Tuesday look windy and fairly confident that won't change much.  I'll wait until Sunday for xmas.

[knocker]

Need keep an eye on the track of this depression as 12 hours prior to this chart it has gusts in excess of 70kts just to the north of the Hebrides. The gfs is slightly different but in the same area.

 

[Liam J]

Some very windy weather into next week, ECM showing gusts 60-70kts into N/NW Scotland Monday evening but windy for many, it remains windy through the week and then another potentially very windy spell into Christmas Eve with gusts around 80kts close to the Western Isles.

 

Looking very at times in the run up to Christmas with a risk of further flooding issues.

 

 

Edited December 19, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[The PIT]

Going to be a huge difference west to east when the figures come in for the end of the month.

[Liam J]

GFS special on the 6z, immense storm for the 30th! 

 Mean speeds  Gusts 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

GFS special on the 6z, immense storm for the 30th! 

 Mean speeds  Gusts 

 

 

Blimey that is a tight gradient that would be very destructive to Ireland.

Nothing nice about that alas interesting as a weather enthusiast.

I did think we'd have at least one severe windstorm this month...could this be it? 

[Liam J]

Yes that would very destructive! Much too far out to have any confidence in, but the extended ECM does have a deep low in a similar position around that time frame but not as severe with mean speeds around 45kts. We don't normally go through December without a notable windstorm. 

[knocker]

The Hebrides could well see some very severe winds Wednesday/Thursday with gusts around 80kts,as the depression travels rapidly NE

Charts weatherbell

And in a more humorous vein

[The PIT]

Mondays windy spell slightly downgraded but still hitting 50 to60 mph quiet widely. Tuesday a longer period of windier weather again hitting the 60mph mark. Looking nasty north west Scotland on the 23rd.

[knocker]

Still looking at gusts around 75-80kts 00 Thursday

[Cookie]

Yeah keeping a close eye on Wednesday into Thursday in a week windy weather this stands out 

[knocker]

The ecm is better as in runs the low more NNE before turning east so you wouldn't kop the very strong winds

[Liam J]

Monday and Tuesday also looking quite windy and obviously wet (please no more rain) !!!.... 

Monday.

Tuesday.