Atlantic Storms Winter 2015/16

[Liam J]

35 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Here talk about last minute changes, you seen the latest 12z for tomorrow's low, almost laughable from 40mph gusts now into the 60mph gusts 

GFS has a tendency to do this 

Yup, 60mph gusts into NW Wales, 50mph through the Midlands and then 60mph once the depressions moves into the North Sea, will see what the high res NetWx-SR says when it updates later. 

Edited December 11, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Cheshire Freeze]

Chances are the GFS hasn't got a handle on tomorrow. Euro 4 suggests largest rainfall totals further S than the 12z GFS is predicting....much like the earlier 6z GFS. Wales takes a battering from the rain on this run

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Although not a "major" event tomorrow a brief spell of squally winds and rain seems possible but some heavier rain Further North (Wales) I agree with Crewe the EURO 4 does have this little "feature" further South

 

 

[SnOwFeSt]

Main band of rain looking further north than expected at the moment? NOT a good sign for Cumbria where the front could stall.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

14 minutes ago, SnOwFeSt said:

Main band of rain looking further north than expected at the moment? NOT a good sign for Cumbria where the front could stall.

Looks about right currently..

[Liam J]

1 hour ago, SnOwFeSt said:

Main band of rain looking further north than expected at the moment? NOT a good sign for Cumbria where the front could stall.

Yep, quite a bit further north, current radar showing ppn past Glasgow! Compare that to the Euro4 above with ppn just fringing Dumfries & Galloway, looks like the GFS was nearer the mark.... Quite worrying for flood hit areas as it could rain for many hours! 

 

Edited December 12, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[NO LONGER POSTING]

14 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Yep, quite a bit further north, current radar showing ppn past Glasgow! Compare that to the Euro4 above with ppn just fringing Dumfries & Galloway, looks like the GFS was nearer the mark.... Quite worrying for flood hit areas as it could rain for many hours! 

 

I don't think that it is that is is further North, Just the models have under done the mass of rain and it is a lot bigger than anticipated, you can tell because the southern extent is the same.. 

[Liam J]

4 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I don't think that it is that is is further North, Just the models have under done the mass of rain and it is a lot bigger than anticipated, you can tell because the southern extent is the same.. 

Wasn't very clear, I should have said the northern extent is further north than the models were predicting not the whole band of ppn. 

Edited December 12, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Wasn't very clear, I should have said the northern extent is further north than the models were predicting not the whole band of ppn. 

 

I, you seen the 00z also increased with wind speeds again on the Southern flank, Could be pretty blowy Norwich way 

Edited December 12, 2015 by Surrey

[Liam J]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

 

I, you seen the 00z also increased with wind speeds again on the Southern flank, Could be pretty blowy Norwich way 

Yeah looks quite windy for Wales first then the Midlands this afternoon and East Anglia this evening.

Was really hoping the heavier ppn wasn't going to get this far north due the risk of further flooding, the ground is saturated and rivers still high... 

 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Yeah looks quite windy for Wales first then the Midlands this afternoon and East Anglia this evening.

Was really hoping the heavier ppn wasn't going to get this far north due the risk of further flooding, the ground is saturated and rivers still high... 

 

 

Amazing how the models can almost "fail" at the last minute, although I do get that this was a rather complex and still is situation with the low spawning from a triple point? If I have read the other info this morning correct 

[Liam J]

4 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Amazing how the models can almost "fail" at the last minute, although I do get that this was a rather complex and still is situation with the low spawning from a triple point? If I have read the other info this morning correct 

You can see the triple point and developing low on the FAX for earlier this morning, looks like it's going to pass over Wales, will likely dump some rainfall as it does! 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

You can see the triple point and developing low on the FAX for earlier this morning, looks like it's going to pass over Wales, will likely dump some rainfall as it does! 

Not good, stay safe further North, 06z rolling out now, last minute tweaks I hope it goes through quick for the flooded areas and spares the worst for places that haven't had as much rain..Although pretty much everywhere bar the South has had some mental rainfall over the last few weeks 

[Liam J]

Belting down over N Ireland right now...

 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Belting down over N Ireland right now...

 

Yea belting it down with snow that is at 70msl 3 inches so far reports of snow all over ulster.

[Liam J]

Just now, booferking said:

Yea belting it down with snow that is at 70msl 3 inches so far reports of snow all over ulster.

Dam, just cold rain here, currently 3.8c but keeps dropping slowly! 

Met Eireann have a status orange for rain and flooding, perhaps they should have included snow if there's 3 inches in places already! 

[booferking]

Pop on to the Ireland thread you will see some images of the snow.

[Liam J]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Pop on to the Ireland thread you will see some images of the snow.

I did and I got jealous! lol 

[booferking]

Haha your time will come hopefully only around the corner for countrywide event.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Usually windy north Wales 63mph gust recorded so far pretty impressive 

[Liam J]

Updated warnings for rain, snow & ice - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=nw&from=rss&sn=C659AF6A-0032-48B5-EB63-90D282E4A28A_3_NW&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=6&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449878400

[Love Snow]

EA Flood Warnings now in place for Leeds City Centre from Kirkstall to the Royal Armouries.

River Aire flooding already at Armouries.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Constantly being modeled for strong winds for a large swathe of the country this weekend not forgetting the rain to forecast 

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, Surrey said:

Constantly being modeled for strong winds for a large swathe of the country this weekend not forgetting the rain to forecast 

Nothing spectacular I take it standard 'autumnal' stuff? The rain doesn't look bothersome to me. 

[The PIT]

Nothing of note I'm afraid. Some western coastal areas may see gusts in the low to mid 50's and the same with North western Scotland and Ireland. Allowing for the normal downgrade neither the the time maybe 50mph at most. So nothing of major interest at the moment. Next Tuesday may bring something to the table more noteworthy but too far out to taken as gospel truth.