Atlantic Storms Winter 2015/16

[Jo Farrow]

10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/uk-storm-centre/storm-desmond

3rd? I thought it was the 4th? 

it will be 4th, but third named by MO

 

Edited December 4, 2015 by Jo Farrow

[Liam J]

Little confused with the naming of Desmond, Met Eireann say Desmond will affect Ireland later today, they must be referring to the frontal system associated with the deep depression near Iceland, what about Saturdays secondary low which looks like it could bring even stronger winds? Our own Met Office have said the impacts will possibly be higher with Saturdays depression... 

 

 

Edited December 4, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Liam J]

Second wind warning for Saturday to Sunday.

 

Edited December 4, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Mapantz]

9 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

it will be 4th, but third named by MO

 

Thanks Jo!

[Summer Sun]

 

Why has the one I started at 11:28 being locked?

Edited December 4, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*
Removing link to deleted thread

[Thunder Snow]

Wow just been through 6z 33 hours of heavy steady rain for Cumbria later tonight and tomorrow

[Liam J]

Thread here for discussion on Storm Desmond - https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84572-atlantic-storm-4-desmond/

[Thunder Snow]

Latest Information

Heavy and persistent rainfall along with strong South-Westerly winds are forecast to continue this evening (Friday 04/12/2015) through until Sunday (06/12/2015). With the ground already saturated the river levels are expected to rise further and we may see some significant impacts. The forecast is likely to result in Flood Warnings being issued on Saturday (05/12/2015). We advise that you keep an eye on the situation by listening to weather forecasts, checking our web pages or calling Floodline. We are continuing to monitor the situation and have workers on site operating defences and clearing blockages where required.Situation last changed 3:08pm Friday 04 December 2015

[geoffw]

how frequent is the boxing day 98 storm?

[matty40s]

10 minutes ago, geoffw said:

how frequent is the boxing day 98 storm?

Not very often, it has happened once so far. ☺

[geoffw]

Just now, matty40s said:

Not very often, it has happened once so far. ☺

1 in 25  year event?

[Liam J]

Further rain warnings being issued for the coming week, low likelihood of 100mm, hope it stays that way...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449360000

Edited December 6, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Summer Sun]

As things stand it unlikely Virgin Trains will run between Preston and Carlisle tomorrow

 

 

 

Edited December 6, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Liam J]

There will be rain falling on most days this week but Wednesday to Thursday looks the wettest at the moment, the totals we've seen over the weekend look unlikely to be repeated but as I said earlier any further rain is unwelcome and with saturated ground and high river levels it may not take all that much to tip the balance again. 

Maybe reading too much into this quote from the warning but it sounds like the Met are not 100% ruling anything out, ''currently not expected'' meaning things could change? Sincerely hope not. 

Quote

Rainfall totals and further flooding of the level seen over the weekend are currently not expected. 

Totals actually increased on the 12z update, hoping they downgrade in coming days! 

 

[Summer Sun]

Weather for the week ahead

 

[Liam J]

Potential for plenty more rain to fall over the coming week and unfortunately for areas already hit by severe flooding, while amounts forecast wouldn't usually be cause for too much concern with perhaps just a risk of local flooding in a normal situation which this isn't, the lakes are nearly over flowing & rivers are running high and are very sensitive at the moment and it wouldn't take all that much water to tip the balance again and cause some big issues, although not to the scale we have already seen (hopefully)...

The Met Office currently updating warnings - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449446400

It also looks like being windy or very windy at times as well, plenty to keep an eye on this week... 

Edited December 7, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Summer Sun]

Some sad news from Kendal

 

[Liam J]

Rain warning updated for Wednesday and also includes a reference to wind being an additional hazard, 20-40mm widely and a very low likelihood of 80-100mm over high ground, if likelihood increases then it could be amber. 

 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449446400

Edited December 7, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[radiohead]

The GFS is showing upwards of 200mm at the end of the 10 day period. I would imagine that the high res models which do a better job of terrain mapping would be showing much higher totals for the period with the same output.

 

[Evening thunder]

Remarkable the consistency with these extreme totals in the NW and the significant rain event drought still ongoing here.

I think, or would hope, that as the rivers respond reasonably fast up there (they drain the fells/Pennines and have significant elevation gradients), and aren't like the Somerset levels where water can accumulate over many consecutive rain events even if individual falls aren't exceptional (2013/14), we shouldn't see floods nearly as bad as what has happened unless we do get daily totals of 100mm+ again over the fells, however it seems some models may be getting towards that..

Of course, there would likely still be some and any flooding is not helpful... (but hopefully not over-topping major defences again unless the models upgrade rainfall totals further).

[swebby]

Thankfully for the flood hit areas the current system out in the Atlantic has tracked much further north and west than some of the models were indicating last week.  For Iceland however that's not such good news  http://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/nr/3247

[Liam J]

Quite a gusty SE wind picking up ahead of the cold front which thankfully looks quite narrow and should move through quite quickly later. 

[Liam J]

More wet weather through this week, any amount of rainfall is very much unwelcome...

More worrying is the potential rainfall amounts next weekend, over 200mm shown on the 12z... Thankfully at this range detail is likely to change... But quite serious is it was to verify for the severe flood affected areas. 

Possibly very windy on Wednesday and stormy for parts of Ireland and the far NW. 

[Abyss]

Looks like "Eva" could be Christened on Wednesday Sub

[Liam J]

4 minutes ago, -Bomber- said:

Looks like "Eva" could be Christened on Wednesday Sub

Certainly possible, UKMET also showing very strong winds, over 50kts approaching Ireland Wednesday afternoon.