Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[northwestsnow]

I feel the UKMO 144 is very finely balanced to be honest, could go either way,the jet splits at this point but i suspect too much energy is in the northern arm if i were being honest.Yes there is an undercut but that doesn't tell the whole tale.

Just my two peneth

[MR EXTREMES]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Whose watching the ECM from behind the sofa! lol

Apparently Amazons sales have some good offers on sledges! Lets hope the ECM can deliver because its been a dire winter so far for cold.

Amazing to think that within a week if the trough disruption is favourable snow could finally be falling in the UK.

funny you say this nick I had been saying 97/98 winter looking likely but as weather history posted we had snowfall here on the south coast that winter but I cant remember it must of been on the tipple.

but as it stands I did start to think just recently that change could be on the way with decline in nino and west qbo weakening and mjo on the move what effect this may have on the heart of winter.

me and my dad where talking about winters of old and he always said winter really starts in jan.

but all in all wave activity must be irritating the vortex certainly on the ropes hey one snowy day would give a smile to a lot of us southerners.

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Not strange but perhaps there is a bit of misunderstanding - regarding the highlighted GEFS ensembles - but none of them show an initial undercut as good as the UKMO at T+144 and I was only replying to your post that said the UKMO wasn't an undercut. The fact is that the GFS op undercuts the block perfectly as well by T+180 - it is just that it has drifted into an unfavourable position for the UK to be affected.

Right we must be talking about degrees of undercut or something.

Sure UKMO disrupts energy SE but that isn't true undercut as in all or the majority of energy heading under the block IMO but perhaps we are crossing swords over terminology?

What I don't understand is the idea that the charts I posted are not showing the low undercutting the block when they very clearly are. Anyone can run through GFS ensembles and check the 120 to 144 progression and see how much energy is heading SE and then run to say 180/194 to see how those runs have progressed. Nealry all with better undercut will show a more favourable blocked/cold chart than those with less.

It may be you were considering the progression of UKMO post 144h more than I or what intended by my original post and we have much less diagreement there though I maintain that more undercut 120/144 than shown on UKMO would put us in a much better position.

Re the next low.

It is complicated and no way to know what the situation might be re state of our block or its actual track yet but essentially we could do with it digging South and pushing WAA up ahead of it to aid disruption because the original block will less likely to disrupt incoming lows by then and we could just end up with low pressure over us or a little to the South of us but with no cold uppers in place . (already displaced too far N/NE)

I would much prefer true undercut from the 120/144 low which would act as a trigger to pull the high and cold West rather than displace it somewhat NE by having too much energy riding up the block a la UKMO.

[booferking]

The low on ECM @96hrs seems to be further south this could be good.

[MR EXTREMES]

impressive plunge of cold into the atlantic

I can see that the low to our west really wants to go northwest but it cant we need scandi heights to hold firm

mind you this also reminds me of feb 98 long drawn sw flow

brutal cold though both east west and northwest

Edited December 27, 2015 by emotional rollercoaster

[nick sussex]

The ECM has that shortwave further west and south at T96hrs and has a better pattern over the ne USA.

Not liking its T120 very much too much energy thrown east off that trough.

Edited December 27, 2015 by nick sussex

[Liam J]

Everyone looking east but the coldest air is coming from the west! lol

 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

I'm staying behind the sofa now what a mess the ecm is heights retreat east.

mind you gfs and ukmo are not a million miles apart.

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Whose watching the ECM from behind the sofa! lol

 

Me lol....this is getting more interesting for coldies, Dare I say the models today are sofa..so good... at long last!!!

[SMU]

So ECM 120

this low in the SW approaches needs to go directly North ( its not the undercutter )

thats because the more North its heading it creates that ridge moving with it-

this will allow the energy on the eastern side of it to sink south into France pushing the cold air west ( like my earlier chart )

fingers crossed......

S

 

[Mucka]

 

pretty much 50/50 split which is nice as we get the reinforced ridge and some undercut.

[nick sussex]

OMG what drama, the ECM at T144hrs pulls back from the brink of catastrophe. Also saving my laptop from being flung out of the nearest window!

Now all our hopes rest on the shortwave in nw France heading se and undercutting at T168hrs.

Edited December 27, 2015 by nick sussex

[MR EXTREMES]

its a start removal of higher heights to our south starting to come closer in timeframe.

looks messy though

[northwestsnow]

Just now, nick sussex said:

OMG what drama, the ECM at T144hrs pulls back from the brink of catastrophe. Also saving my laptop from being flung out of the nearest window!

Nick ramp ALERT hahah

[Mark wheeler]

Love the constructive analysis keep it up peeps im learning all the while

[northwestsnow]

Hope it dont breasties verticus now!!!

Can the low dive,please low dive LOL

[shaky]

Lovely 144 hour chart from ecm!!lets hope the next low undercuts!!!

[MR EXTREMES]

ooooooo ere my we could be in for something very exciting nice 168 ecm

steves sausage heights heading towards Iceland maybe

Edited December 27, 2015 by emotional rollercoaster

[January Snowstorm]

ECM doesn't make it in the reliable anyway 

Certainly a flood fest though!!

[Froze were the Days]

oh dear! too much energy in the Atlantic - that short wave feature amounts to very little and most of the energy is behind it! disappointing!

Edited December 27, 2015 by Froze were the Days

[shaky]

Could do with that low at 168 hours slightly slacker but oh well still a pretty good chart!!!undercutting again!!

[Mucka]

Cold uppers held too far NE with the low not disrupting enough but it should slide under from here although we will need future developments to drag in the colder air. ie getting the low through and drawing in from the NE before the Atlantic intervenes.

 

Edited December 27, 2015 by Mucka

[nick sussex]

Its always the same story. A sniff of something wintry and the NWP is determined to wring every ounce of drama out of the situation.

All that can be said is that its either going to be very wet or very snowy for some parts of the UK next weekend.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

ooooooo ere my we could be in for something very exciting nice 168 ecm

Think people in the NW would disagree, to me that charts screams nothing but RAIN! and flooding, but pardon me if I'm wrong, would love it to be dry

[Mark Neal.]

Bitterly cold air to the East at 168hrs and cold air in atlantic too, can the low head SE and undercut?