Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[chionomaniac]

I think that it is not the undercutting that will be the blow to achieving anything from this scenario, but more that we are seeing the core of the block over the Barents Sea and Kara sea and not Scandi. That could just be a little too far away and could leave the door open for weak troughing to develop over southern Scandi.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Its always the same story. A sniff of something wintry and the NWP is determined to wring every ounce of drama out of the situation.

All that can be said is that its either going to be very wet or very snowy for some parts of the UK next weekend.

I still think this run can be rescued Nick.

[TSNWK]

Two posts timed at exactly the same time..and  polar opposites....

i actually thought the 168'looked good.. And was thinking we might get a boom! at 192

Soon find out...

[radiohead]

Argh, is that low stalled at T168? 

[Mark Neal.]

Sliding.... The 990 que following in the Atlantic in its wake

 

[Mucka]

LOL so very close, knife edge really.

 

Need to stall the Atlantic. Looks good upstream.

Edited December 27, 2015 by Mucka

[Cloud 10]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Two posts timed at exactly the same time..and  polar opposites....

i actually thought the 168'looked good.. And was thinking we might get a boom! at 192

Soon find out...

 

+192 trough disruption in 5..4..3..2..1

[MR EXTREMES]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Think people in the NW would disagree, to me that charts screams nothing but RAIN! and flooding, but pardon me if I'm wrong, would love it to be dry

indeed it does this is a slow process but its heading in the right direction maybe a few bites of the cherry but either way interesting model watching.

[tight isobar]

Ecm.

Should,  start to see absorbed cold advection from the east...

But its a close call thus far!

[feb1991blizzard]

Snow for some of UK at 192.

[SMU]

192 is a sinker

[Blake]

Down she goes...watch those -8 or better uppers come in from the east on the 216 and 240... 

[Mark Neal.]

Reasonably cold air in the UK. If we have SE wind flow and cold continent could become snowy?

[MR EXTREMES]

there you go that's where I felt it would be heading excellent run from the ecm

[radiohead]

Need that low further south...but it's 192 hours away, no point fretting over the details at this range now!

[Mucka]

Wait for Murr boom 216

[Mark Neal.]

1 minute ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

192 is a sinker

Thought i read that as stinker at first

 

Edited December 27, 2015 by Mark N

[phil nw.]

The UK run at T144 still the most promising for getting low pressure under the block.The low just north of the Azores at that time is further south than the ECM.The ECM then of course deepens the darn thing and pushes it towards the UK bringing more unwanted heavy rain and gales.

This is the thing with any Scandi.Heights as i have said before they are the most difficult and frustrating setup to follow.Minor changes run to run can have you tearing your hair out.

This is not over yet of course and i would say the UK model gives us an even chance but the other 2 would be too far north.

Edited December 27, 2015 by phil nw.

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Two posts timed at exactly the same time..and  polar opposites....

i actually thought the 168'looked good.. And was thinking we might get a boom! at 192

Soon find out...

192 is out.. May I say boom! With a little B

[Costa Del Fal]

I'm afraid I can't be excited by this afternoons and evenings output. The general trend is for the real cold air to stay over towards central and Eastern Europe and an awful lot relies on lows and energy undercutting the high. The vortex looks to remain exceptionally strong to our northwest and the above ECM chart just shows how the uk is set to be in the worst position for out latitude as usual - cold air advancing from the west but generally modifying and fizzling into nothing and then the cold air from the east never really making it. 

Cooler is probably almost a certainty as we go into January. Snowy? Quite a low chance as it stands. Only saving grace IMO is that despite the sub -5 850hpa never really making it to us, even just a negatively tilted trough (and associated winds east of south) might just being in the low enough dewpoints to help us out. All exceptionally marginal and I remain unconvinced. I don't think the models are at all as good as last night overall ok afraid. Don't want to dampen spirits here but i think realism is key here. Close but no cigar currently is my summary in a nutshell. Not at all saying this is how will play out mind. Can only hope the Atlantic is being overdone although some very stormy charts of late prove an active Atlantic is certainly still possible going forward. The block needs to edge west by some distance IMO.

 

edit: looks like the latter stages of the ECM might try and prove me wrong a bit but all still very knife edge IMO.

Edited December 27, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[feb1991blizzard]

Either way hemispherically its another good run, some stonking big tropospheric ridges ripping the PV in 2 and sending some waves upwards.

[Mucka]

 

snowfest for some,

[Mark Neal.]

216hrs.   Cold air into NE and coasts, OOOH?!

[feb1991blizzard]

Floodgatum de openium!!!!!!!!!

[radiohead]

If that low dives southeast we'll be in business by T240...