Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Mark Neal.]

1030MB into greenland

[Blake]

Here we go! Ok over a week away but something to keep us talking!...and dreaming.

This could edge further SE and stall potentially...

 

[Cheese Rice]

5 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

I'm afraid I can't be excited by this afternoons and evenings output. The general trend is for the real cold air to stay over towards central and Eastern Europe and an awful lot relies on lows and energy undercutting the high. The vortex looks to remain exceptionally strong to our northwest and the above ECM chart just shows how the uk is set to be in the worst position for out latitude as usual - cold air advancing from the west but generally modifying and fizzling into nothing and then the cold air from the east never really making it. 

Cooler os probably almost a certainty as we go into January. Snowy? Quite a low chance as it stands. Only saving grace IMO is that despite the sub -5 850hpa never really making it to us, even just a negatively tilted trough (and associated winds east of south) might just being in the low enough dewpoints to help us out. All exceptionally marginal and I remain unconvinced. I don't think the models are at all as good as last night overall ok afraid. Don't want to dampen spirits here but i think realism is key here. Close but no cigar currently is my summary in a nutshell. Not at all saying this is how will play out mind. Can only hope the Atlantic is being overdone although some very stormy charts of late prove an active Atlantic is certainly still possible going forward. The block needs to edge west by some distance IMO.

Yup!

I'm not seeing too much excitement if you live in Southern England, I think the best scenario is a slider low level delivering snowfall to Northern England/Scotland but struggling further south. An easterly isn't completely out of the woods but a slider low seems the more probable scenario. 

Edited December 27, 2015 by Cheese Rice

[cold snap]

1 hour ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

192 is a sinker

Steve seams more of a stall ?

Need a southerly track to introduce the coldest air

[MR EXTREMES]

1 minute ago, Mark N said:

216hrs.   Cold air into NE and coasts, OOOH?!

very much so very messy just wondering if the the slack heights around ice might progress into something like a true northern block.

[A.J]

constructive model discussion please, rather than one-liners ad nauseam....

[northwestsnow]

Im VERY HAPPY with the ECM this evening., 

Blocking high to the NE and the jet is going one way, some frigid cold across Europa, bring it on!!

 

[tight isobar]

Wallop!...

Some nice advection west...

-8 850s incoming! 

[gottolovethisweather]

One certainty, whatever one might say about the control runs of today's ECM, UKMO or GFS and moreover from the broader theme which is continuing on from recent days, is that January is going to much COLDER than December.  Obvious you may all be screaming, but a while back, even this aspect wasn't a given as we seemed to be on a continuation of a theme.  

 

I believe dreamlike Christmas type synoptics will continually show up through future model runs and outputs and the SNOW will come eventually. We might not have to wait too long. Halt that Atlantic zonal train for at least a few days and then it might be Jackpot time. The prospects for Europe are looking much better as without a cold continent, things cannot change in the UK unless we get a direct Northerly and just how long do they tend to last, not for long that's how long. Get the cold in and the snow will come. Darts time and its only on that channel that I want to see bullseye lows and highs from 2016 onwards. Winter proper is set to start in 2016 but it still feels a long haul to get there for now, why, simply because we're all pondering over charts at D6 range and beyond, chill guys n gals, chill. 

Edited December 27, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Carlrg]

Ecm scared to give us the 240. 

No wonder!!!!

Edited December 27, 2015 by Carlrg

[Cheese Rice]

4 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

very much so very messy just wondering if the the slack heights around ice might progress into something like a true northern block.

Its so messy that there is less reason to hang on every run and no reason to be downbeat. 

Something could easily crop up around T150 in the form of a slider, maybe not as likely to snow in the south but still interesting.

Edited December 27, 2015 by Cheese Rice

[Snowman.]

Ahh

[Mark Neal.]

Go on lad.. sliddeeeeee.  cold uppers for North. Reasonably cold further south.

You would certainly get snow NE Flank of that low and bound to get colder air following behind on a NE/E flow. 

  

Edited December 27, 2015 by Mark N

[MR EXTREMES]

ecm 240 oooooooo beautiful

[Blake]

Shame there is no 264 but as it sinks further south it should bring in colder air from NE. Over all a fairly good picture for cold and perhaps snow. LP 400 miles further south would be lovely and maybe 200 further east.

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Cheese Rice said:

Its so messy that there is less reason to hang on every run and no reason to be downbeat. 

Something could easily crop up around T150 in the form of a slider, maybe not as likely in the south but still interesting.

Yes it is, great to see some cold options open up and developed in operational output though.

It is going to be fascinating to see what eventually develops and as others have said, at the very least it looks likely the PV will come under increasing pressure with opportunity for improved amplification prospects through January.

Now when will the MetO get on board.

 

[nick sussex]

I think the real danger point in the ECM is between T168hrs and T192hrs. The football shaped low is not what we want to see.

This is too high risk, and has a small margin for error especially as the main high is further east. What saves the ECM is that lobe of high pressure to the north to help force some trough disruption.

Overall I give the ECM 7/10 this evening. Must do better!

[booferking]

Anybody know if there is site were i could view free precipitation charts for the ECM please.

[jmatt81]

Looks nice and all but i don't know. I'm not buying it. I'm not meteorologically trained etc and enjoy reading the forums and looking at the charts but I'm just not buying this. My fear is that the block to the north east will encourage advancing depressions to stall out over us and just dump huge amounts of rain. Why would the jet stream just power down compared to the last few weeks? 

I would prefer some cold, snow, frosts etc but my worry would be the temperatures do indeed drop but we just get lots more rain and lots more flooding.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Yes it is, great to see some cold options open up and developed in operational output though.

It is going to be fascinating to see what eventually develops and as others have said, at the very least it looks likely the PV will come under increasing pressure with opportunity for improved amplification prospects through January.

Now when will the MetO get on board.

 

Exactly.. Lovley charts on the whole this evening.. There was a little teeze from Liam dutton on twitter in regard to it getting colder.. But we do need something more I think.

[Mark Neal.]

Just now, booferking said:

Anybody know if there is site were i could view free precipitation charts for the ECM please.

Best bet is here- http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

Or- http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Also  http://www.yr.no/ is useful with looking at forecasts for locations, based on the very lastest ECM output. 

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM PPN charts here booferking.

 

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/

Edited December 27, 2015 by feb1991blizzard

[tight isobar]

Not going to get hung up' on exacting details ie, correction of geographical upper placements. 

Let get tge cold into reliable time. 

Then decipher the details. 

Good ecm this evening. 

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, Mark N said:

Best bet is here- http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

Or- http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Also  http://www.yr.no/ is useful with looking at forecasts for locations, based on the very lastest ECM output. 

Thanks for that..

[Froze were the Days]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think the real danger point in the ECM is between T168hrs and T192hrs. The football shaped low is not what we want to see.

This is too high risk, and has a small margin for error especially as the main high is further east. What saves the ECM is that lobe of high pressure to the north to help force some trough disruption.

Overall I give the ECM 7/10 this evening. Must do better!

100% agree Nick - I personally feel there will be too much energy from that scenario and not the stall of the LP that this run shows.