Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[northwestsnow]

Agreed Nick.:)

ECM is without doubt the torch bearer for us coldies this morning.

The stamps at 120 show the uncertainty but to my eye the control & o look very similar up to that (crucial) point.

Im going to remain positive that at the very least we will see the jet kicking that horrid euro slug pig into touch,then all bets are off .

 

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM is decent enough for a snow event across the Midlands and northern England. The UKMO only goes to day 6, but I have my doubts on any success given the day 6 chart.

ECM

We can see the undercut beginning with the low running between northern France and southern England.

UKMO

We are already beginning to see interaction between the cold pool over Europe and the low heights positioned over Scotland. The result will likely be the low tracking further north with a wet pattern rather than white (apart from maybe the far north of the UK).

The evolution is fine, just a case of getting the jet south enough to deliver snow to as many areas as possible. At the moment only the ECM gives us that real chance.

Edited December 28, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[Summer Sun]

7 hours ago, Retro Star Gazer said:

Please tell us ' i for one don't have Twiiter

 

[Paul_1978]

Would I be right in thinking that the current charts on offer are all without the influence of any stratospheric warming conditions, and therefore we should be happy where things stand, in the knowledge that that strat warming is potentially still to come?

[bluearmy]

a few obs

parallel ecm from yesterdays 12z was also disrupting the trough but the tipping point at day 7 happened to our east and the pattern, though similar to the op is shunted 500 miles east. 

we keep pointing to the op ecm as being the one to follow on this trough disruption as it is highest res output. the parallel hasnt once disrupted the trough as we would need to advect cold enough uppers far enough west to turn the wet into white.

the ecm spreads in fi are the most optimistic yet re cold uppers getting across the north sea. not deep cold but enough to ensure that the trough disruption would be akin to the op this morning. day 10 shows the atlantic headed in.

as we head past day 10, the ens mean/anoms are keen on the altantic jet firing up. the control run is consistent on pushing the centre of the depression across the uk around n midlands. assuming that the modelling would be overplaying the n extent of the track, this could be interesting.

finally, the ec32 wanted to raise the azores ridge back into nw europe into week 3 and this now shows at the end of the extended eps.

as far as joe b's tweet is concerned - europe is not the UK, whereas the UK is europe.

Edited December 28, 2015 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

Great post blue, FI obviously is really quite early at the moment.

As you say, the ecm mean at day 8 and 9 is encouraging-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1922.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2162.html

[chris55]

Marginal ECM op this morning but lots of ppn and with the trough disruption and easterly feed as long as the 0c isotherm stays south then snow is more than possible. From Monday onwards this looks like the case for most, hence that ECM snow chart (posted on the last page) is showing accumulations for most.

Overall the long wave pattern is loaded with potential, and IF ECM op has this right then small adjustments could well deliver a lot of snow for some and possibly all! 

 

 

[chris55]

18 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Would I be right in thinking that the current charts on offer are all without the influence of any stratospheric warming conditions, and therefore we should be happy where things stand, in the knowledge that that strat warming is potentially still to come?

Yes, there is still a raging vortex up there. Though I think that the tropospheric pattern with the big Scandinavia/Russian high could well lead to wave breaking that will go some way to disrupting the PV. So a trop led pattern that will try to displace or destroy the vortex that then eventually feeds back down through the atmosphere to allow for more trop blocking. Although the strat vortex is looking like it will need some serious effort to destroy it!

Edited December 28, 2015 by chris55

[knocker]

50 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

finally, the ec32 wanted to raise the azores ridge back into nw europe into week 3 and this now shows at the end of the extended eps.

as far as joe b's tweet is concerned - europe is not the UK, whereas the UK is europe.

Yes I noticed that blue; be interesting to see whether it continues that theme. I did wonder a while ago if this could be a route to a dryer spell, albeit temporary.

Edited December 28, 2015 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Huge block to the NE at 1055nb on gfs06z, getting owned by that Atlantic jet.

Not going to look anything like ECM i feel.

Nope just looks wet, with the odd frost thrown in .

Hope thats not right!

Edited December 28, 2015 by northwestsnow

[Newberryone]

12 minutes ago, knocker said:

Yes I noticed that blue; be interesting to see whether it continues that theme. I did wonder a while ago if this could be a route to a dryer spell, albeit temporary.

Knocks, after experiencing such a prolonged wet spell by then, what leads you to believe any ridging from the Azores back into northwestern parts of Europe, now showing at the end of the ext eps, would only be temporary in nature? Is it basically only a brief respite from the wind and rain that we can deduce from this? 

[shaky]

Everything going north east on the gfs!!!u cant help but feel the 12zs this evening are gona probably make or break on this!!!siding with the gfs on this one!!could be wrong!!

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Everything going north east on the gfs!!!u cant help but feel the 12zs this evening are gona probably make or break on this!!!siding with the gfs on this one!!could be wrong!!

Its an awful run shaky, a lot more rain and the Jet just blows the block back east.

 

[January Snowstorm]

Continuation of the wet and wild spell for the foreseeable. The only change I see is it will be colder thanks mainly to colder uppers coming in off the Atlantic. The met have got this spot on with any easterly threat remaining east of Berlin 

[cold snap]

Ian f told us last week it was at 10%chance the PV is just to strong ,You can't push the.           Pattern far another west ,Cold to be bottled up over the East 

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS 6z shows a deep Low track further South over Cornwall for around the 4th, Bringing gales/rain for coastal area's in the S/W. On a side note, The models do slowly seem to be 'settling down' with regards any upstream signals, Taking away the extreme/progressive evolutions of late.

Edited December 28, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[TSNWK]

Met updates never interested in an cold spell and the models are trending towards a cooler version of wetness now! 

I do enjoy the model viewing, but sometimes think I could save myself a lot of time by just viewing met update each lunchtime.

[Gustywind]

Wasn't the 10% in relation to a full blown easterly though, not the slider scenario the ECM shows.

This is still 50:50 for me as it's still basically the US models v the Euros, the 6z changes nothing. Isn't it also the least reliable of the GFS runs?

 

[snowangel32]

5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Everything going north east on the gfs!!!u cant help but feel the 12zs this evening are gona probably make or break on this!!!siding with the gfs on this one!!could be wrong!!

Yh unfortunately more zonal weather looks the form horse and again demonstrates how good the MET are and didn't jump to any conclusions on a few easterly teasers from the models fully expect ECM to backtrack later it's cut it close the last few runs. At least Europe looks like going into the freezer could be good later on down the line. So instead of mild rain we get cold rain not much comfort for our friends in the North.

[nick sussex]

I really wouldn't be losing any sleep over this GFS 06hrs run. The time to worry is if the ECM or UKMO drop the more favourable trough disruption.

The Russian block is still there and the jet is still going south.

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Unfortunately but as expected signals of cold are slowly being dropped, ECM and UKMO look ok but won't deliver to the UK as a whole, maybe far NE. GFS looks poor throughout, and I feel this may be nearer the correct modelling than the others - and more inline with the METO.

eh?.... dropped?

these charts have rather strongly upgraded the chances of a significant cold spell, suggesting that a large northern block could evolve, pressure low over southern europe, atlantic energy exiting to our south leaving us on the cold northern side. im not lover of cold weather, but there is a gradual shift towards something potentially quite prolonged and cold.

[Hocus Pocus]

Forgive me for stating the obvious but how as  the GFS  got this nailed in line with the MetO update. Doesn't the MetO follow what the models are showing and not the other way around, some silly comments amongst the excellent analysis. Right now we've got the ECM and UKMO vs the GFS, nothing has been resolved at this stage when you've got such a complex set up.

Edited December 28, 2015 by Hocus Pocus

[Tim Brawn]

So my 1st post , Love reading all the views even if I understand little ,  All I will say is Iove the cold and snow and after weeks of waiting and listening to all the so called experts I wonder how you can all be so wrong , every week you say its going to get cold , it doesn't and just keeps on raining . Why do so many predict cold weather and how call the websites get it so wrong , the 10 day forecast swings wildly each day , if its not accurate why bother , all this sience and the best they can do is prob about 96 hrs after that its a guessing straw clutching game

 

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I really wouldn't be losing any sleep over this GFS 06hrs run. The time to worry is if the ECM or UKMO drop the more favourable trough disruption.

The Russian block is still there and the jet is still going south.

Quite correct Nick.It appears that some on here will never learn that taking a model out put,that runs three times a day,at face value is futile.

[booferking]

Strange posts in here this Morning nothing has changed in my eyes ECM & UKMO the same @144 so both go for the undercut and as this gets closer i think this could go further under as that is one strong Russian block with a jet digging deep south. Alot of people taking the GFS as the gospel in here strange.