Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Ali1977]

Good FI with GFS, not far off a beast!! 

[Weathizard]

GFS is really the Scrooge of the bunch, not much you can say about the 12z except try and ignore it and pretend it doesn't exist especially for already saturated areas. UKMO I would normally back in day 5-6 over the GFS but awaiting the GEFS & ECM eagerly.

 

A really intriguing period of model watching, even if we don't get the outcome most want.

[Singularity]

Briefly on the potential impacts of the upcoming MJO event, which could be of pretty serious magnitude based on recent model projections and trends (latest: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ALL_emean_phase_full.gif).

Based on the January El Nino + MJO analogues, there's a huge contrast in potential conditions for the UK depending on whether the peak then decay occurs mostly in phase 7 or phase 8:

That's 7 on the left and 8 on the right. A remarkable change of conditions if we start off in one and venture into the other while maintaining amplitude - another possible outcome.

For buggering the polar vortex, both are supportive of that dual action from Eurasia and Canada/Alaska (Canaska? Alanada? ), phase 7 the best for intensity put could 8 have better placement perhaps? I'll leave that one to the experts in that area of meteorology.

Interesting to hear via GP that the extended EC EPS are 'effectively going for a Canadian warming, with good support form the det. at day 10'.

The effects will take time to filter through though. Ahead of that, the Euro high could make a return for a time following it's holiday early in Jan, should the MJO reach phase 8, and the extended EC may be toying around with that based on some recent reports on here (e.g. ridging from the SW was mentioned this morning I think).

 

Meanwhile, there are hints of the main forcing from the El Nino event becoming more central in nature, which could help with establishing a -ve AO and NAO combination late in the season. I fear it could be tricky to find spring warmth in March for example.

[Mucka]

I have been surprised by just how bullish the MetO have been over the last few days, calling low probability of any cold and generally mild for January. I fully understand why they have not called cold but but constantly calling mild and going out of their way to say how unlikely cold was seemed out of step with the output we have been seeing. Subtle changes in the 10 to 30 day forecasts over the last 24h though which I hope continue toward a more favourable forecast for not only those wanting cold and snow chances but for all those that desperately need some drier weather.

Certainly UKMO looks good and GFS while not getting there maintains the high pressure to our NE and gets low pressure into Europe which will always keep the door ajar for cold incursions and perhaps more importantly it is an improvement over recent output.

ECM has shown some real wintry potential in the last couple of runs and if that continues this evening we can probably say the balance between the chances f cold or continued W/SW Atlantic driven weather have at last tipped slightly in the cold weather fans favour.

Along with ECM it will be interesting to see which way JMA goes as that has not been favouring good trough disruption and undercut. Sure we shouldn't take any run in isolation but it would be reasonable to feel a cold signal is strengthening if that model sides with UKMO rather than GFS this evening.

Anyone getting GFS ensembles?

Edited December 28, 2015 by Mucka

[northwestsnow]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Yep, thats one humdinger of a block on UKMO this evening.

The jets going one way from there, surely.

[Polar Maritime]

Just look at that warmth getting pumped up into the Arctic by storm Fred.

Edited December 28, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Singularity]

The GFS 12z det. seems fairly believable out to around +288 which is not bad going for that model.

It then has a vicious Atlantic bomb which changes the game going forward and makes the rest of run more of an outside chance - I wouldn't expect to arrive an an easterly via that path when there's more potential for some classic trough disruption with cold air making a little inroads at times. 

Still not convinced the disruption will occur far enough west for us in early Jan but never say never I suppose!

[Dorsetbred]

18 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I have been surprised by just how bullish the MetO have been over the last few days, calling low probability of any cold and generally mild for January. I fully understand why they have not called cold but but constantly calling mild and going out of their way to say how unlikely cold was seemed out of step with the output we have been seeing.

Is it not because they CAN see what WE see AND MORE? Right now I still think they have a better handle on the overall scenario going forward.

[mb018538]

One thing is for sure.....the euro slug has been well and truly stamped on! 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

One thing is for sure.....the euro slug has been well and truly stamped on! 

Yup someone is about to empty a big sack of salt across Europe

Excellent trends this evening for coldies, now ECM, you can do it

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Is it not because they CAN see what WE see AND MORE? Right now I still think they have a better handle on the overall scenario going forward.

 

Yes that and they are understandably cautious, it is not so much the lack of cold in the forecast as the bullishness about there being such low chance of any cold that surprised me. 

[phil nw.]

40 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS taking over the Scrooge role but still angles the jet se'wards and displaces the Azores high.

The UKMO is excellent with the negatively tilted troughing at T144hrs and high pressure further west. The best chart by miles of the winter so far.

Agreed Nick- well best so far in this buildup.Always a good sign to see the formation of a Genoa low as sign of the pattern re-aligning more in favour of sending some cold west.

little steps.Now come on ECM let's have some support.

[Captain Shortwave]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

One thing is for sure.....the euro slug has been well and truly stamped on! 

If it gets replaced by a deep cyclonic westerly pattern like the GFS then frankly there is very little improvement (4-6 inches across Ireland and western parts of the UK over the next 7-10 days according to the GFS). Add to that if the MJO gets to a high amplitude phase 8 then the Euro slug will return with a vengeance given the composite for a strong El-Nino phase 8 MJO signal. The low resolution runs of the GFS and parallel have signalled a strong pressure rises over Europe (broadly speaking) which would likely be an MJO based response.

At this point I am seriously hoping that the UKMO is correct because I really don't want a week of weather which pretty much is a re-run of winter 13/14 before a return to south westerlies again, even if in the long term we can get an SSW and a cold pattern in February.

[gottolovethisweather]

31 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

One thing is for sure.....the euro slug has been well and truly stamped on! 

It is forecast to be, yes, but that is a different matter to it actually being a realisation come the timeframes under scrutiny. I'm been watching that prospect develop from prior to the Christmas period yet we are still a few days away yet. I do believe the main weather headlines as I've stated previously will come from continental Europe come January which will make a change from us being in the headlines for incessant rain.

 

Tonight's ECM and its associated ensembles should provide us with further assistance in our quest for cold/more seasonal synoptics. I'll be waiting with bated breath.

Edited December 28, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Troubleatmill]

Hi Mucka, don't know if you saw it on the news, Nick Miller was talking about our flooding and said looking forward they are uncertain, it could either stay unsettled with more periods of rain (albeit less intense) or we could introduce colder air from the east.

Sounds like they are in a similar position to us as in all this.

Think BA is right in that any mention of cold and the daily express will jump on it sending everyone back to morrisons with three trolleys each, so the MET  refrain until they know it is coming...or not

[Snow shut work]

47 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Good FI with GFS, not far off a beast!! 

What use is that!!!! 

Pro forecasters don't trust it beyond a certain time let alone 15-20 days in the future. 

[gottolovethisweather]

On another topic, as the vast majority are hunting for wintry precipitation in here we must not discount late Thursday (New Years Eve) as an outside prospect for some surprise snowfall. No doubt, this will only be transient in nature and very fleeting stuff but it is certainly worth a heads up I feel. Also, the following morning (New Years Day) could bring about the first frost of the Winter for many of us too.

The attached Fax chart at t+84hrs illustrates the situation well.

 

Before all of that, the same ole sh*t story, rainfall figures out West (Tuesday's/Wednesday's events) are suggestive of totals in excess of 80-100mm in places during this one event.  Roll on JANUARY! 

 

 

Edited December 28, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Bullseye]

So before the ECM runs in 10 the models are showing a pretty rare situation, that situation involves a +NAO fighting against -AO while across the pond we have a +PNA with a -EPO then add in possibility of Canadian Warming in next 10-14days. This has only happened 5/6 previous times according to US mets! Amazing no matter the eventual outcome.

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/681524049772720128

Edited December 28, 2015 by Bullseye

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

So before the ECM runs in 10 the models are showing a pretty rare situation, that situation involves a +NAO fighting against -AO while across the pond we have a +PNA with a -EPO then add in possibility of Canadian Warming in next 10-14days. This has only happened 5/6 previous times according to US mets! Amazing no matter the eventual outcome.

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/681524049772720128

Strange - We aren't looking at a pos NAO when the AO goes neg but apparently there's a background pos NAO ????

ed was part of the exchange so perhaps he can extrapolate for us. 

[Lakigigar]

EPS is very good. Even on long term. Look at average and see how many members do predict waa and a less active ocean. I think something is going to happen. Isn't it next week, then around 10-15 jan. Believe me!

[Orpingtoniceagedec10]

Just seen on flood news, a met office chap talking about a possible change to a colder easterly flow.

[Cloud 10]

Here comes the ECM!

 

[SMU]

ECM 96

look at the loop of the jet going up over the UK & back SSE through Norway 

This is normally a prelude to a trigger low dropping into Benelux....

 

[shaky]

Brilliant 96 hour chart from ecm!!better than ukmo aswell!!shortwave further west and not to deep!!

[Iceberg]

Ec isn't to be sneezed at for t120 goo Angle so far. Gefs avg is better than gfs  for its 12z run